A ceasefire is unacceptable – US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine using cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones. Zelenskyy outlines a three-step plan to counter Russia at European Summit.
Daily overview — Summary report, June 3
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 18.00 pm, June 3, 2023 is in the dropdown menu below:
Military Updates
Freedom of Russia insurgents claim they are “moving forward” in Russia’s Belgorod region. The fighters of the Freedom of Russia legion, a Ukrainian-backed unit where only Russian citizens in opposition to the current regime are fighting, claimed they destroyed a “troops concentration” in the Russian town of Shebekino, Belgorod region, and “continue moving forward.” They showed the video of smoke in Shebekino, where their second incursion to Russia began on 1 June 2023.
UK defense chief highlights real possibility of Ukraine retaking Crimea amid Russian equipment shortage. Contrary to the private ruminations of some other NATO officials, Britain’s defense chief Ben Wallace said there was a real possibility Ukraine could successfully retake Crimea, the peninsula Putin illegally occupied in 2014, this year as Russian forces run out of needed equipment, Washington Post writes. Wallace said a number of nations were ready to forge bilateral or multilateral “mutual defense pacts” with Ukraine and commit to longer-term plans to build the country’s military capability “to make sure it’s a very expensive opportunity for Russia or anyone else to invade Ukraine in the future.”
Ukrainian Armed Forces attack Berdiansk port, Russian ships flee – Сity Military Administration. On the afternoon of 2 June, an explosion occurred on the local port in occupied Berdiansk, according to Telegram of Ivan Fedorov, the Mayor of Melitopol, and Telegram of collaborator Vladimir Rogov, head of the occupation administration in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Viktoriya Halitsina, the head of the Berdiansk City Military Administration, confirmed that Ukrainian defenders had attacked Russian positions, and according to preliminary data, ships that had recently entered the port to steal Ukrainian grain and metal were fleeing the port.
Alleged night drone attacks on Russia’s several oblasts, Kursk governor claims Ukraine to be responsible. Russian governors of Smolensk, Kaluga and Kursk oblasts, in the west of Russia, reported drone attacks on the night of 2 June. In particular, the acting governor of Smolensk Oblast, Vasilii Anokhin, declared strikes on the fuel and energy facilities on his official Telegram channel. According to another Russian Telegram channel Baza, drones kamikaze attacked an oil refinery and a gas distribution stations in two villages in Smolensk oblast. As a result of the explosion, the water fire suppression tank was damaged, and an administrative building affected.
Ukraine’s forces destroy 27 Russian artillery systems, 15 tanks and 10 cruise missiles in a single day. 27 Russian artillery systems, 28 vehicles and fuel tanks, 12 APV and 15 tanks destroyed by Ukraine’s forces over the past day, according to the information by General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
Kyiv’s air defense neutralizes airborne targets amidst 6th airstrike in 6 days. An air raid alarm was announced across Ukraine including the capital, Kyiv, during the night of June 2nd. The alarm was initially raised around 1 a.m. from the southern oblasts and then gradually extended to all oblasts, with the exception of the west. Shortly after the alarm, powerful explosions were reported in the capital, and air defense systems were activated in Kyiv and other oblasts.
Frontline report: Pro-Ukrainian Russian insurgents conduct more operations in Russia’s Belgorod region. The Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps, composed of Russian citizens, launched another insurgent operation in Russia’s Belgorod region. Targeting a Russian Control Point and opening a secondary attack towards Tavolzhanka, these forces seem to have breached defenses, decimated key military equipment and attacked regional administration. In Russia’s Belgorod region, Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps conducted another operation to draw Russian attention and resources to the northern front. Both detachments fully consist of Russian citizens who are against the current Russian government and have reportedly sought and were granted temporary shelter in Ukraine because their current military objectives aligned with Ukrainian ones.
According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):
- Russia has continued to redeploy regular units to the Bakhmut sector, as Wagner Group assault detachment complete their withdrawal to rear areas.
- Russian VDV (airborne forces) have assumed an increasingly important role in Bakhmut: elements of the 76th and 106th divisions and two additional separate VDV brigades are now deployed to the sector.
- The VDV is much degraded from its pre-invasion ‘elite’ status. However, Russian commanders have likely attempted to maintain some of these still relatively capable units as an uncommitted reserve. Because they have instead been forced to deploy them to hold the front line in Bakhmut, the whole Russian force is likely to be less flexible in reacting to operational challenges.
Losses of the Russian army
Humanitarian
A family car explodes after running over a mine in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region: three children among victims. A car in which a family with three children was traveling blew up after running over an unknown explosive device near the villages of Morozova Dolyna, Bohodukhiv district, in Ukraine’s Kharkiv oblast. The incident happened on 2 June 2023 around noon, Oblast head Oleh Syniehubov informed. A 37-year-old mother died on the spot. Two girls aged 12 and 15 and a 12-year-old boy were seriously injured. All the injured are hospitalized, and doctors are fighting for their lives.
Legal
Russian agent spying on air defense positions in Ukraine sentenced to 15 years in prison—SBU. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) gathered extensive evidence against another FSB agent who had been providing Russia with locations of Ukrainian air defenses and checkpoints in Cherkasy Oblast, according to SBU. SBU counterintelligence agents detained him as a result of a special operation in January 2023. Based on the materials provided by Ukrainian intelligence, the court sentenced him to 15 years in prison.
Ukraine completes formation of key judicial body, unblocking reform. Renewed commission based on principles advocated by civil society will resume the process of judge selection, paused since 2019. But not without a few glitches. In a significant step forward for judicial reform, all the necessary members of Ukraine’s renewed High Qualification Commission of Judges (HQCJ) were approved on 1 June.
Support
Japan will supply TNT explosives to the US to increase the 155mm artillery shells production. The US and Japan appear to have found a workaround to enable the TNT explosives sale from Japan to the US, Reuters writes, referring to its sources. The US is seeking to secure supplies of TNT in Japan for 155mm artillery shells. Reportedly, an industrial TNT will be exported to the US, which is considered not a military good but a dual purpose product.
Poland and the Netherlands to help train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets – CNN. At the June 1 European Political Community Summit in Moldova, the Dutch and Polish prime ministers announced their countries’ intent to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, CNN reports. “We set up the schedule for those training. Poland will help Ukraine train the pilots of F-16 jets,” Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki said. In turn, Dutch pm Mark Rutte said the Netherlands would also start training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets “as soon as possible.”
EU Parliament adopts ammunition production bill to keep supporting Ukraine – DW. EU parliamentarians backed a law to boost ammunition production in the EU for replenishing its own stockpiles and supplying Ukraine in the medium and long term, DW reports. European Parliament adopted the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) on 1 June 2023. This legislative proposal comes from the European Commission and contains measures to urgently increase the ability of the EU defense industry to supply ground-to-ground ammunition, artillery shells and missiles.
Switzerland’s RUAG wants to sell 98 Leopard 1 tanks to Germany for re-export to Ukraine. Switzerland’s state-owned arms manufacturer RUAG wants to sell 98 old Leopard 1 tanks to Germany for later use in Ukraine, SRF reports. So far, the Swiss authorities are giving RUAG negative signals, but the company has now officially submitted an export application. RUAG bought the 98 tanks in Italy seven years ago to later resell them or use them for spare parts. The tanks remain in Italy, but now RUAG wants to sell them to the German Rheinmetall armaments group for further re-export to Ukraine.
New Developments
Ukraine’s Defense Minister visits Asian Security summit Shangri-La Dialogue for the first time ever. On 2 June 2023, for the first time ever, the Ukrainian Defense Minister visited Asian Security Summit IISS Shangri-La Dialogue where he discussed bilateral agreements and military cooperation with his colleagues. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov met with Defense Minister of Singapore Dr Ng Eng Hen.
Ukraine deserves peace within its internationally recognized borders, says Estonian President Karis during his visit to Kyiv. Estonian President Alar Karis visited Kyiv on 2 June 2023, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. “Ukraine deserves peace, but within its internationally recognized borders. Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, Crimea – the entire Ukrainian land must never [again] suffer the horrors of war. Therefore, by providing a perspective strategy for maintaining the architecture of European security, we must bring Ukraine into our democratic family, as well as push for EU and NATO expansion. I want to confirm our support for Ukraine both on the battlefield and on the way to the EU and NATO,” Karis said after his meeting with Zelenskyy.
Swiss parliament votes against re-exporting military material to Ukraine. The Swiss House of Representatives has voted against a proposal to permit the re-export of Swiss-produced military equipment to Ukraine, Swissinfo reports. Despite the Security Policy Committee’s recommendation to ease such rules, the decision keeps the status quo intact, citing neutrality concerns. The proposal was dismissed with 98 votes in favor, 75 against, and 2 abstentions. This decision aligns with Switzerland’s neutrality policy and was primarily advocated by the Swiss People’s Party and the Greens. The vote occurred on the same day as Switzerland’s President Alain Berset met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the European Political Community summit in Moldova.
Ukraine gains European backing for peace summit without Russia – WSJ. Ukraine, backed by European leaders, is planning a global summit excluding Russia, aiming to gather support for its terms to end the war. According to senior Ukrainian presidential adviser and European diplomats, Ukraine and its allies are working towards the organization of a global leaders summit that would exclude Russia. The aim of this summit is to gather support for Kyiv’s proposed terms for ending the war, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Zelenskyy outlines three-step plan to counter Russia, touts “Patriot coalition” at European Summit. At a summit of European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelensky outlined a plan “known to Europe” to help Ukraine repel Russia and proposed creating a “heavenly shield” for Europe with the help of a “Patriot coalition.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky detailed a three-step plan to counter Russian aggression at a European Political Community summit hosted in Moldova, and requested a “Patriot coalition” to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense while it awaits F-16 jets. In his address on 1 June, President Zelensky declared the existence of a plan known to Europe that could enable Ukraine to counter the ongoing Russian aggression, European Pravda reported. Zelenskyy, who initiated the discussion following a speech by Moldovan President Maia Sandu, expressed confidence that his explanation was already familiar to the partners. Addressing the leaders of nearly 50 states gathered at Mimi Castle in Bulboaca village, he stated, “Each of you knows this.”
Assessment
- On the war.
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of June 2, 2022:
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project confidence and competence in the MoD’s ability to respond to perceived threats. The Russian MoD issued a second update about the June 1 Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast border raid, largely fixating on the timeliness and scope of the Russian response to the raid.[1] The MoD claimed that additional Russian Western Military District (WMD) elements reinforced the border area within an hour of the start of the raid and conducted heavy air, artillery, and flamethrower strikes against the raiding units and their reserves. The MoD claimed that over 135 people and 35 vehicles in total conducted the raids and that various Russian defensive efforts – including small arms fire and mines – repelled the raids. The MoD later celebrated the commander of an unspecified motorized rifle battalion, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Nikitin, for leading the defensive effort, likely to preempt attempts to attribute the “victory” achieved by Belgorod border defense on Russian Colonel General Alexander Lapin as the information space did during the May 23 raid.[2] The Russian MoD’s fixation on portraying Russian forces and the Russian military command as capable defenders of Russia likely reflects internal and broader information space anxiety over the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive as well as any reverberating informational impacts from any failures to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks.
Select Russian milbloggers continue to use the situation in Belgorod Oblast to criticize Russian leadership while others downplayed the recent raids. A Wagner-affiliated milblogger stated that the Russian MoD is not treating Belgorod Oblast like Russian territory and claimed that it is only adding to the list of settlements affected by Ukrainian shelling.[3] A milblogger called on Russian forces to destroy increasingly well-equipped Ukrainian forces at their deployment points along the border and not to lie in their reports about the situation in the area.[4] Some milbloggers stated that Russian forces have responded well to the raids, which they claim are merely “terrorist attacks” aimed at creating a psychological impact as opposed to securing concrete territorial goals.[5] A prominent Russian milblogger absurdly claimed that Ukrainian forces have concluded that it is too risky to start the counteroffensive now after observing Russia’s responses to recent probing efforts.[6] The raids, any Ukrainian probing efforts, and Russian responses in the past few weeks have all been on an extremely small scale compared with the announced forces Ukraine is reportedly preparing for the counter-offensive. The Russian hyperfocus on minor tactical engagements highlights Russian nervousness and insecurity about the forthcoming counteroffensive.
Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine using cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones on the night of June 1-2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 15 Kh-101/555 missiles at Kyiv City from Tu-95 aircraft over the Caspian Sea and that Ukrainian air defense destroyed all 15 missiles.[7] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all 21 Shahed 131/136 drones that Russian forces launched at Kyiv from southern Ukraine.[8] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that Russian forces are attempting to attack in atypical patterns and at unexpected times to deceive Ukrainian air defense, but that newly supplied air defense systems nonetheless allow Ukrainian forces to shoot down all Russian missiles flying along a ballistic trajectory.[9] Ukrainian Southern Forces Joint Press Center Head Nataliya Humenyuk stated on June 2 that Ukrainian air defenses shot down a Russian drone over Mykolaiv Oblast during the June 1 to 2 overnight strikes.[10]
Head of the Russian Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the General Staff Colonel General Yevgeny Burdinsky announced that the Russian military will form two new military districts and other new formations by the end of 2023. The Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD’s) “Military Commissariats of Russia” journal published an article by Burdinsky in its June 2023 edition in which he stated that it is necessary for Russian forces to create the Moscow and Leningrad military districts and organize and staff new combined arms and air armies, army corps, the Azov naval regional formation, five divisions, and 26 brigades in 2023.[11] Burdinsky emphasized that the main organizational task for the MoD remains contract service recruitment and the implementation of conscription, however.[12] Burdinsky did not expound upon how the Russian military plans to generate the necessary personnel and equipment required to form these new formations and it is unclear if Burdinsky’s statements were meant to represent a formal MoD deadline for the creation of the new formations.
Budinsky’s statements likely aim to reintroduce and reamplify Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s standing proposals to significantly expand the Russian military. Shoigu delivered a series of public proposals at the MoD’s Collegium on December 21, 2022 aimed at significantly increasing the size of the Russian military which included the reestablishment of the Moscow and Leningrad military districts as well as the formation of a new army corps.[13] Shoigu proposed that the Russian Armed Forces increase its strength to 1.5 million servicemen, including 695,000 contract servicemen, but did not specify a timeline for any of his proposals.[14] Shoigu also proposed an increase in the age of conscription, a measure that Russian officials have decided to implement in a phased manner over the course of three years instead of by the end of the year.[15] The creation of two military districts and these formations is a significant undertaking, and the Russian MoD’s current force generation efforts do not signal that the MoD intends to generate the necessary number of personnel to fulfill these tasks by the end of 2023.
Both a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger and Igor Girkin, an ardent nationalist milblogger who is increasingly critical of the Kremlin, questioned where the MoD plans to acquire the personnel and equipment from to create these new formations. [16] Girkin stated that 26 brigades would require 80,000 personnel, a figure roughly correct if brigades were formed at full staff with 3,000 personnel per brigade.[17] Girkin added that five divisions would require another 40,000 personnel and argued that the MoD would have to conduct another mobilization wave to generate the roughly 120,000 required personnel.[18] ISW has previously assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely hesitant to launch another mobilization wave and that the MoD’s current hybrid force generation effort of contract service recruitment and crypto mobilization is aimed at avoiding such a mobilization wave.[19] The Russian MoD is highly unlikely to institute any of Shoigu’s long-term force restructuring and expansion proposals by the end of 2023 with the possible exception of re-establishing the Moscow and Leningrad military districts.
Russian sources appear to be reorienting the debate about the attribution of responsibility for small-scale tactical gains in the Bakhmut area to an ongoing offensive operation to capture Marinka, a small, almost leveled settlement where Russian forces have struggled to advance since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A prominent Russian milblogger stated that there are disputes within the Russian information space over who took more control of Marinka even though Russian forces have not yet fully captured the settlement.[20] A Wagner-affiliated milblogger claimed the elements of the 150th and 20th Motorized Rifle Divisions (8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) are primarily responsible for the gains around Marinka.[21] The milblogger claimed that the DNR‘s 100th Brigade, Sparta Battalion, and the ”Kaskad” and ”Rusich” Operational Tactical Combat Formations deserve responsibility for gains around Marinka as well.[22]
These discussions about responsibility coincide with the reported arrival of Chechen forces to assume responsibility of the Donetsk front and complete the capture of Marinka and other settlements in the area.[23] These discussions are likely aimed at undermining Kadyrov’s ability to use any subsequent tactical gains to elevate his standing and reintroduce his paramilitary forces as a main irregular offensive force following the culmination of Wagner forces and their withdrawal from the frontlines.[24] Many irregular formations, primarily DNR forces, have served on the Donetsk front and may be resentful of Kadyrov’s attempt to assume responsibility for any success following months of attritional offensives.[25] This discussion around Marinka also coincides with a concerted attack from Chechen commanders against Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, which has generated debates between Chechen and Wagner commanders about which forces have been more successful fighting in Ukraine.[26] Prigozhin routinely emphasized Wagner’s responsibility for tactical gains around Bakhmut throughout the offensive to capture the city to advocate for more supplies for Wagner and increased influence.[27] Other irregular forces may be trying to replicate this informational campaign in Marinka and elsewhere in Ukraine and are likely competing amongst each other for envisioned favor from the Kremlin. The capture of Bakhmut, despite offering no operational advantages, did allow the Kremlin to present a Russian victory, if only temporarily, to the Russian public. The capture of Marinka, a settlement with a pre-war population of 10,000 people and with no tactical or operational significance, would likely present marginal informational benefit to the Kremlin at most. Russian forces have advanced less than 2km from 2014-controlled territory around Marinka since the start of the full-scale invasion, suggesting that this entire conversation is premature.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on June 2 that calls for a ceasefire are unacceptable because they will freeze the current lines in place and enable Putin to consolidate control of occupied areas and prepare for future attacks on Ukraine.[28] Blinken noted that the war is a strategic failure for Russia and Russia is worse off militarily, economically, and geopolitically than before the start of its full-scale invasion – all contrary to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s broader strategic aims. Blinken noted that the war undermined many of Putin’s broader goals, including to divide NATO, foster a partnership with China, and strengthen the Russian military. Blinken stated that Russian forces in Ukraine suffered 100,000 killed and wounded “in a meat grinder of its own making” just within the past six months. Blinken stated that Putin believes he can outlast Ukraine and its supporters but reiterated that NATO remains committed to supporting Ukraine, as “Ukraine will never be Russia.”
Key Takeaways
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project confidence and competence in the MoD’s ability to respond to perceived threats.
- Select Russian milbloggers continue to use the situation in Belgorod Oblast to criticize Russian leadership while others downplayed the recent raids.
- Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine using cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones on the night of June 1-2.
- Head of the Russian Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the General Staff Colonel General Yevgeny Burdinsky announced that the Russian military will form two new military districts and other new formations by the end of 2023. Budinsky’s statements likely aim to reintroduce and reamplify Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s standing proposals to significantly expand the Russian military.
- Russian sources appear to be reorienting the debate about the attribution of responsibility for small-scale tactical gains in the Bakhmut area to an ongoing offensive operation to capture Marinka, a small, almost leveled settlement where Russian sources have struggled to advance since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These discussions about responsibility coincide with the reported arrival of Chechen forces to assume responsibility of the Donetsk front and complete the capture of Marinka and other settlements in the area.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on June 2 that calls for a ceasefire are unacceptable because they will freeze the current lines in place and enable Putin to consolidate control of occupied areas and prepare for future attacks on Ukraine.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Kupiansk and Kreminna directions.
- Russian forces conducted ground attacks in Marinka.
- A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces made territorial gains during limited counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukraine struck the port area in occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with Storm Shadow missiles.
- Ukrainian sources continue to report that Russian cadets from higher military academies are deploying to areas near the Ukrainian border within Russia.
- Russian occupation authorities continue to forcibly transport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of medical rehabilitation schemes.
