ISW: Ukraine has opened a new phase of Crimea’s isolation by hunting seaborne fuel tankers

Ukraine appears to have "initiated a new phase in its campaign to isolate occupied Crimea" by targeting Russian seaborne gasoline tankers, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed. The shift follows months of strikes that degraded the land routes feeding the peninsula. A reported admission from a Russian general suggests Moscow has no force left to stop it.

What ISW sees in the tanker campaign

Months of Ukrainian mid- and long-range strikes on the roads and rail lines linking Russia with occupied Crimea have left the peninsula dependent on gasoline brought in by ship, ISW wrote in its 9 July assessment.

The intensifying strikes against fuel tankers "demonstrate a new phase in Ukraine's ability to rapidly adapt to Russia's shift toward seaborne fuel transportation," the think tank assessed. ISW expects the campaign to keep disrupting Russia's ability to move fuel between Russia and occupied Crimea in an effort to isolate the peninsula.

The numbers behind the assessment

Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi reported that drone crews struck 14 Russian vessels in the Azov Sea overnight on 9 July — 12 gasoline tankers, the tug Alfeo, and one dry cargo ship. He named the Chelsea-6, Aura, Sonar-1, Ilya Repin, Galiaskar Kamal, Venera-3, and Penelope among the tankers hit, putting the four-day total at 35 vessels.

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35 ships in four days: Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s Azov Sea fuel run keeps widening

The campaign has not paused since. This morning, the SBS grouping's public statistics page shows 12 additional Russian ships struck over the past 24 hours.

No effective counter left, Russian general reportedly admits

A man identified as an active-duty Russian general reportedly told Russian journalist Dmitry Kolezev on 6 July that Russia cannot effectively counter Ukraine's intermediate-range strike campaign. The reason: the Russian General Staff in 2024 dissolved the Crimean Defense Group after concluding it had too few naval assets to protect the peninsula, the general reportedly said.