Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian supply lines is cutting occupied Crimea off from the mainland, and the peninsula will soon "turn into an island," Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in an interview published on 17 June.
Fedorov's words put a cabinet minister's name to a forecast Ukraine's military has been demonstrating for weeks — every land corridor into Crimea struck, traffic on the main route down by more than two-thirds, fuel rationed inside the peninsula. The isolation "could lead to very unexpected consequences for the Russians," he told the PRESSING channel, declining to say more.
A correlation the ministry says it can see
Fedorov linked the strikes directly to the fighting on the front. The more Ukraine hits Russian logistics, the fewer assault operations Russia mounts on the first line, he said, describing a "direct correlation" the ministry tracks.
He said the Defense Ministry contracted 300% more Middle Strike drones in the first four months of 2026 than in all of 2025. That figure sits below a larger one already on the record: in late April, after a briefing from Fedorov, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said five times more mid-range strike assets had been contracted this year than last.
The campaign behind the forecast
Fedorov announced on 27 May a program he calls Logistics Lockdown, directing an extra 5 billion hryvnias ($112 million) to the drone units striking Russian supply routes 20 to 200 kilometers behind the front. Two weeks later, Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert Brovdi, known by his call sign Madyar, vowed to isolate Crimea in a Reuters interview, saying strikes had cut traffic on the Novorossiya highway by 71% in a fortnight.
Between 7 and 13 June, Ukrainian drones hit the Chonhar bridge, the Henichesk–Arabat Spit crossing, four bridges near Armiansk, and the Dzhankoi checkpoint. Russian-installed officials said no intact bridges remained at the peninsula's land entrances, with traffic rerouted, then halted again under repeated strikes.
What Fedorov did not say is what the "unexpected consequences" might be, or when.
