Russia’s campaign to severely degrade Ukraine’s unified energy system within the 2022-2023 winter has highly likely failed, according to the latest British Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine.
Russia has conducted massive long-range strikes on Ukraine’s energy system since October 2022, but large-scale attacks have become rare since early March 2023, British Intel reported on 8 April 2023.
Although smaller-scale strikes on Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure continue, they will likely have much less impact on the Ukrainian energy system, according to British Intel. Such strikes usually contain fewer than 25 munitions at a time.
Ukraine’s network operating companies continue to source replacement transformers and other critical components. Transporting and installing these components is a major logistical challenge, especially high voltage transformers that weigh at least 100 tonnes.
Ukraine’s energy situation will likely improve with the arrival of warmer weather. Planning and preparations for next winter have likely already begun, according to British Intel.