Russo-Ukrainian War, Day 132: Russia fired 7 missiles at the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

The Russian army seized the remaining territory between Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast’s administrative borders. Russia fired 7 missiles at the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, six shot down by Ukrainian air defense. Russians continue assaults northeast of Bakhmut and north of Sloviansk. The Ukrainian army continues to strike the Russian warehouses and personnel, in particular in the Kherson region. The EU is preparing the seventh package of sanctions against Russia by the end of July. The EU plans to create a special platform for the restoration of Ukraine after the end of the war. Putin did not congratulate Biden and the Americans on Independence Day.

Donetsk oblast. Russia is regrouping its forces in the Sloviansk direction but its separate groups are trying to storm the directions of Krasnopillia and Bohorodychne. The fighting continues. Ukraine’s armed forces keep holding Novoluhanske, not allowing the Russians to advance to Semihirya. Russia’s operations to storm Avdiivka and Mariinka failed.

South of Donetsk Oblast. After the Russians have strengthened their battle grouping in this direction, the intensity of the fighting somewhat decreased. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian military continues to threaten two directions at once here, Volnovakha and Rozivka.

Zaporizhzhia oblast. Artillery duels and tactical actions continue in the direction of Polohy. The direction of Vasylivka sees more intense fighting in the Nesterianka area. After the bridge was blown up near Liubymivka yesterday, the Russian troops have boosted the security measures to guard the road and railway bridges.

Kherson Oblast. The intensity of hostilities at Inhulets increased. There were battles near Snihurivka and Kyselivka. The report that Ukraine’s army is “1 km from the outskirts of Kherson“ is fake, but Ukrainian troops are still very close. Ukraine’s General Staff has already confirmed the liberation of Ivanivka, Potemkine, and Myrne. This is far from all good news from that direction as the delay in the official reporting can be more than one week.

Ukrainian troops captured Russian T-80BV tanks in Kharkiv Oblast

The video was reportedly filmed near the village of Karnaukhivka, Izyum district. https://t.co/sk2geDYeXA pic.twitter.com/QbxeVWBZbe

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 5, 2022

Kharkiv Oblast. In some directions, Russian forces tried to advance but failed as the Ukrainian army repulsed their offensive. The evacuation from hospitals in Russia’s Belgorod shows that Russia may be preparing false flag operations to justify the massive shelling of Kharkiv, which should be expected in the coming days. The less probable is the option that Russians may also pursue the goal of announcing mobilization in their regions adjacent to Ukraine’s north, east, and occupied Crimea.

Over the past day, the Ukrainian artillery hit a dozen of Russian rear warehouses in Kadiivka (Luhansk Oblast), Donetsk, Ilovaisk, Amvrosiivka, Shakhtarsk, Yakovlivka (Donetsk Oblast), Chornobaivka, Sadove (Kherson Oblast).

• Russia’s relatively rapid capture of Lysychansk extends its control across virtually all of the territory of Luhansk Oblast, allowing it to claim substantive progress against the policy objective it presented as the immediate purpose of the war, namely ‘liberating’ the Donbas.
• Unlike in previous phases of the war, Russia has probably achieved reasonably effective co-ordination between at least two Groupings of Forces, the Central Grouping likely commanded by General-Colonel Alexandr Lapin and the Southern Grouping probably under the recently appointed General Sergei Surovikin.
• Ukrainian forces have likely largely withdrawn in good order, in line with existing plans. The Ukrainian held areas of Sievierodonetsk-Lyschansk consisted of a bulge or salient which Russian could attack from three sides. There is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces will now be able to fall back to a more readily defendable, straightened front line.
• The battle for the Donbas has been characterised by slow rates of advance and Russia’s massed employment of artillery, levelling towns and cities in the process.

Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychansk. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that Russian forces have captured Luhansk Oblast on July 3, after seizing Lysychansk and settlements on the Luhansk Oblast administrative border.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff also announced that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysychansk to avoid personnel losses.[2] Russian forces have likely not fully cleared Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast as of July 3, despite Shoigu’s announcement. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Russian forces are still fighting within Lysychansk to defeat remaining encircled Ukrainian forces, but the Ukrainian withdrawal means that Russian forces will almost certainly complete their clearing operations relatively quickly.[3]

Russian forces will likely next advance on Siversk, though they could launch more significant attacks on Bakhmut or Sloviansk instead or at the same time. Ukrainian forces will likely continue their fighting withdrawal toward the E40 highway that runs from Sloviansk through Bakhmut toward Debaltseve. It is unclear whether they will choose to defend around Siversk at this time.

Two very senior Russian commanders are reportedly responsible for the tactical activities around Lysychansk. Commander of the Central Military District Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin and Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces Army General Sergey Suvorikin (who also commands Russia’s “southern” group of troops in Ukraine) have been responsible for securing Lysychansk and the area to the west of it respectively.[4] The involvement of two such senior officers in the same undertaking in a small part of the front is remarkable and likely indicates the significance that Russian President Vladimir Putin has attributed to securing Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border as well as his lack of confidence in more junior officers to do the job.

Ukrainian forces likely used US-provided HIMARS rocket artillery systems to strike a Russian ammunition depot at the Melitopol airfield on July 3. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian forces launched two strikes on one of the four Russian depots in Melitopol.[5] Russian Telegram channel Rybar released footage of a large cloud of smoke over the city, and Russian-appointed Melitopol Governor Yevhen Balytskyi falsely claimed that Ukrainian forces aimed to strike residential buildings, but instead hit areas around the airfield.[6]

The Kremlin likely seeks to expand Russian state control over private Russian companies that support elements of Russia’s military industrial base. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 3 that the Russian government’s inability to pay Russian firms supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine is degrading Russia’s ability to repair damaged vehicles. The GUR reported that the directors of Russian military vehicle repair centers are not accepting new Russian equipment for repair because the Russian military has not paid these centers for previous work.[7] Recently proposed Russian legislation suggests that Kremlin leadership shares GUR’s assessment. Russian legislators in the Russian State Duma submitted a bill on June 30 that would empower the Kremlin to introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” enabling the Russian government to force private Russian companies to provide supplies for Russian military operations.[8] The bill prohibits Russian businesses from refusing to fulfil Russian government procurement orders connected to Russian military operations.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces seized the remaining territory between Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast’s administrative borders on July 3.
• Russian forces launched assaults northeast of Bakhmut and north of Sloviansk but did not secure new territorial gains.
• Russian forces conducted extensive artillery attacks in the western part of the Southern Axis likely to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• The Kremlin continued to set conditions for potential Russian annexation of proxy republics.
• Ukrainian partisans reportedly derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol on July 2.