Russo Ukrainian War. Day 229: Russian General Surovikin named the new commander of the Russian troops in Ukraine

 

Daily review

Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

The Kremlin named the Russian Commander of the Aerospace Forces, Army General Sergey Surovikin, the new commander of the Russian operation in Ukraine, and this appointment has generated positive feedback within the nationalist community. Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts. Russian forces continued establishing defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast. Russian forces continued to attack settlements around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City. Ukrainian forces continued to shoot down Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones. Belarus officially accused Ukraine of preparing a strike on its territory. Iranian Shahid UAVs spotted in eastern Ukraine.

Kyiv, Ukrainian cities under unprecedented missile strike, casualties reported: LIVE UPDATES

Daily overview — Summary report, October 10

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, October 10, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below

Situation in Ukraine. October 8, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Situation in Ukraine. October 8, 2022. Source: ISW.

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The two hundred-twenty-nineth (228) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military large-scale invasion continues.
Donetsk Battle Map, October 8, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Donetsk Battle Map, October 8, 2022. Source: ISW.

The enemy is trying to hold the temporarily captured territories, is concentrating its efforts on attempts to disrupt the counteroffensive actions of the Defence Forces in certain directions, and continues offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.
The enemy is shelling the positions of our troops along the contact line, carrying out engineering equipment of defensive positions and lines in separate directions and conducting aerial reconnaissance.
Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of warfare, it strikes critical infrastructure and residential areas.
There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine. For example, during the past day, the occupiers launched 10 rocket and 19 air strikes, carried out more than 90 MLRS attacks.
As a result, over the past day, the infrastructure and civilians of more than 30 settlements were affected. Among them are Zaporizhzhia, Sloviansk, Novobakhmutivka, Siversk, Bilohorivka, Nikopol and Blahodativka.
The enemy used seven anti-aircraft guided missiles to attack Zaporizhzhia. Once again, the critical infrastructure of the city and the homes of peaceful civilians were affected.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
The enemy fired in other directions:
in the Siverskyi direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, in the areas of Popivka, Starykove, Vorozhba, Yanzhulivka, and Myropillya settlements;
Kharkiv Battle Map. October 8, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kharkiv Battle Map. October 8, 2022. Source: ISW.

in the Slobozhansky direction – from mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Chervona Zorya, Veterynarne, Strilecha, Mali Prohody, Vovchansk, Kam’yanka, Dvorichna and Hrynkivka settlements;
in the Kramatorsk direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the entire line of contact, in particular, in the areas of the settlements of Pershotravneve, Siversk, Makiivka, Novoyehoryvka, Stelmakhivka, Terny, Torske and Zarichne. Also, in the area of ​​the settlement of Svatove, the enemy blew up railway and road bridge crossings;
in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the entire line of contact, in particular, in the areas of the settlements of Rozdolivka, Serebryanka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Zaitseve, Krasna Hora, Soledar. In addition, the occupiers mined the area in the Berestove district;
in the Avdiivka direction – tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery shelled the areas of Avdiivka, Kamianka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Pisky, Krasnohorivka and Marianka settlements.
More than 20 settlements were damaged by fire in the Novopavlovsk and Zaporizhzhia areas. In particular, Vuhledar, Novopil, Shakhtarske, Mali Shcherbaky, Velyka Novosilka, Malynivka and Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson and Mykolaiv Battle Map. October 8, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kherson and Mykolaiv Battle Map. October 8, 2022. Source: ISW.

Enemy shelling in the areas of more than 25 settlements along the entire contact line was recorded in the South Buh direction. Near Dudchan, the enemy engaged an attack UAV. In total, the occupiers made up to 30 UAV flies in the direction of aerial reconnaissance.
The situation is critical in the 127th Rifle Regiment of the so-called 1st Army Corps. The hastily formed regiment, by the decision of the commander of the 49th Army, was immediately transferred to the first line of combat in the Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. Relatives of mobilized servicemen prepared an appeal to the law enforcement agencies of the russian federation about significant losses and the inaction of the military command. There are long interruptions with water and food in the subdivisions. Military personnel, at best, are equipped with old-fashioned protective equipment, which leads to numerous casualties.
Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces have repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Ozaryanivka, Kamianka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske settlements.
Aviation of the Defence Forces of Ukraine carried out 24 strikes during the past day. Damage to 20 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, as well as 4 anti-aircraft missile systems of the enemy, was confirmed. In addition, Ukrainian air defence units shot down 1 Su-25 enemy aircraft, 3 UAVs and 3 Х-59 guided air missiles in the previous day.

Military Updates

Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst. ~

Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst.

Putin keeps persuading Lukashenka to start an open war with Ukraine. In Belarus, near the Ukrainian border, 6 battalions of the enemy are currently concentrated. The decision to use them will depend on the events at the front, says Ukrainian Intelligence Service.
Belarus officially accused Ukraine of preparing a strike on its territory. The Ambassador of Ukraine in Minsk was handed a note. “The Belarusian side claims that Ukraine plans to strike at the territory of Belarus. This information is not true,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Iranian Shahid UAVs spotted in eastern Ukraine. In Kremenchuk in the Poltava Oblast, air defense works downed the drones. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Ukrainian air defense downed the drones.

Regional Updates

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian invaders fired 12 missiles with the help of tactical aviation. 12 dead, 49 hospitalized, including 6 children.

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • Ukrainian offensive operations continue to place pressure on Russian forces both in the north-east and in Kherson Oblast in the south. However, Russia continues to give high priority to its own offensive operations in the central Donbas sector, especially near the town of Bakhmut.
  • Over the last week Russian forces have advanced up to 2km towards the town on two axes, coming closer to breaking into Bakhmut, which has suffered very extensive damage from shelling. These forces have likely included Wagner private military company units, including personnel recently recruited from Russian prisons.
  • Russia’s continued efforts to progress its grinding Donbas offensive, in the face of serious threats on its operational flanks highlight the imperative to deliver operational success while also underlining the inflexible operational design which has undermined its plans thus far.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of 9 October, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

Humanitarian 

Environmental 

Legal 

Support 

New Developments 

The US Congress will review a bill to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism and a draft law recognizing Russia’s actions in Ukraine as genocide, said a senior adviser to Congress Massaro.
Putin gathers the Security Council of the Russian Federation to express the reaction to the explosion on the Crimean bridge.

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of 9 October, 2022:

A large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8. Maxar satellite imagery shows that the explosion collapsed one lane of the road bridge and damaged the nearby railway track.[1] The Russian Investigative Committee stated that a truck exploded on the bridge and ignited seven fuel tanks on the railroad.[2] A small fraction of Russian milbloggers speculated that Ukrainian saboteurs used a boat to detonate the bridge from the sea, though there is no visible evidence for such a conclusion.[3] The Kremlin refrained from accusing Ukraine of sabotage or attack, echoing similar restraint following the sinking of the cruiser Moskva and the Ukrainian strike on Saky airfield in Crimea.[4] Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the incident, but The New York Times reported that an unnamed senior Ukrainian official stated that Ukrainian intelligence participated in the explosion.[5] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted that the Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a government commission composed of government officials, security services, and the Ministry of Emergency Situations to investigate the ”emergency.”[6]

The explosion will not permanently disrupt critical Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Crimea, but its aftermath is likely to increase friction in Russian logistics for some time. The road bridge appears at least partially operational, and the railroad bridge did not suffer significant structural damage according to Russian reports that generally seem plausible based on the available video evidence. Russian footage shows people walking on the damaged road bridge and a train moving on the railroad bridge.[7] The Head of occupied Crimea Sergey Aksyonov claimed that the remaining lane of the road bridge opened to cars and buses after a rigorous security check, but that trucks must move by ferry.[8] The collapsed lane of the road bridge will restrict Russian military movements until it is repaired, forcing some Russian forces to rely on the ferry connection for some time. Russian forces will likely still be able to transport heavy military equipment via the railroad. Russian officials will likely intensify security checks on all vehicles crossing the bridge, however, adding delays to the movement of Russian military equipment, personnel, and supplies to Crimea. Putin has already signed a decree strengthening the security protocol on the bridge under the supervision of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB).[9]

The Kremlin is likely continuing to frame the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as the scapegoat for the Kerch Bridge explosion and other Russian military failures to deflect the blame from Putin. The Russian MoD has not issued an official statement regarding the incident as of this publication.[10] Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that the Russian Presidential Administration sent out a guide to Russian mass media on the appropriate way to downplay the severity of the damage to the bridge, and it is possible that the Kremlin has ordered the Russian MoD to remain quiet regarding the situation.[11] Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov stated that Russia must initiate a strike campaign on critical Ukrainian infrastructure instead of listening to Russian MoD promises.[12]

Some nationalist voices noted that Putin and his close circle are failing to immediately address the attack on the symbolic bridge, voicing direct criticism of Putin for the first time. A milblogger warned that if Putin fails to undertake retaliatory actions it “will be mistaken for the weakness of the president himself.”[13] Another milblogger noted that it is hypocritical for the Kremlin to call on Russians to rally behind Putin if he is unable to comment on significant events such as the Moskva sinking, prisoner exchanges including Azovstal fighters, or the collapse of the Kharkiv frontline.[14] Others criticized the silence of Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev regarding the explosion, given that Medvedev had made several statements defining any attacks on the Kerch Bridge as a violation of Russian ”red lines.”[15] Russian milbloggers and propagandists alike called on the Kremlin to resume strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and notably did not make any calls for Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

Ukrainian and Russian sources claimed that the Kremlin targeted some higher military command figures following the Kerch Bridge explosion, but these reports remain unverified as of this publication. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin detained, arrested, and blocked unspecified military officials and ordered the units of the elite Dzerzhinsky Separate Operation Purpose Division to enter Moscow on October 8.[16] Milbloggers who favor the Wagner Group claimed that the Kremlin has replaced Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov supposedly with Tula Governor Alexey Dyumin and the deputy commander-in-chief of the ground forces, Lieutenant General Alexander Matovnikov, respectfully.[17] ISW cannot independently verify either of these reports at this time.

The Kremlin named the Russian Commander of the Aerospace Forces, Army General Sergey Surovikin, the new commander of the Russian operation in Ukraine, and this appointment has generated positive feedback within the nationalist community. Sorovikin previously commanded the “southern” group of forces in Ukraine and was reportedly responsible for the capture of Lysychansk in July.[18] Milbloggers shared their excitement regarding Surovikin’s appointment, noting that Surovikin has the “tough” character necessary to regain the initiative in Ukraine.[19] Wagner financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin extravagantly praised Surovikin because he “got into a tank and rushed to save” the Soviet Union during the 1991 coup attempt in Moscow.[20] Prigozhin’s interview further confirmed reports of a fissure between pro-war and “liberal” factions within the Kremlin, which ISW will consider in more detail in subsequent reports.

Key Takeaways

  • A large-scale explosion seriously damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia.
  • The Kremlin named the Russian Commander of the Aerospace Forces, Army General Sergey Surovikin, the new commander of the Russian operation in Ukraine, and this appointment has generated positive feedback within the nationalist community.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts.
  • Russian forces continued establishing defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued to attack settlements around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to shoot down Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.
  • Russian federal subjects are facing financial challenges in funding mobilization.
  • Russian and occupation administration officials continued measures to remove Ukrainian children from their homes in Russian-occupied territories.

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