As hard as it is to imagine in the 21st century, Vladimir Putin is perfectly prepared to go to war to ensure that Ukrainian Orthodoxy does not gain autocephaly because once it does and once its status is recognized by others, the Kremlin leader’s imperial pretensions will suffer a defeat that he simply cannot tolerate, Yury Skobov says.
“If the Russian Federation doesn’t block the establishment and recognition by other Orthodox of a new Ukrainian Orthodox Church not subordinate to the Russian Orthodox Church,” the Moscow commentator says, then this will mean that ‘Russia doesn’t exist,’ as Lev Vershilin, a ‘patriotic’ fantasy writer, has written.”
That is because for Putin and those who support him, Ukraine cannot be allowed to be independent of Russia in any fundamental way.
Consequently, Skobov continues, “Putin will use any opportunity not to allow what would be viewed within the country as ‘a geopolitical defeat.’ And therefore, the issue of Ukrainian autocephaly certainly could be one of the causes which led him to order ‘the Kerch crisis.’”
But it isn’t the only one. The other cause is the problematic geographic position of Crimea which Putin seized and annexed in 2014. “Putin cannot be certain of the firmness of his acquisition until he establishes control not only over a land corridor to Crimea … but also over lands adjoining the canal supplying Crimea with water from the Dnieper River.”
Putin’s “empire like a shark cannot exist except in movement. Otherwise it will drown. So too the empire. Having started on the path of international brigandage, Putin already cannot stop himself.” And having shown himself prepared to ignore all the existing rules of the game, he must continue to do so, even if the consequences become more serious.
The Kremlin leader’s mantra about Russia “’rising from its knees’” is like Hitler’s about Germany ‘throwing off the shackles of Versailles.’” It is not something that is achieved once and for all but rather something that requires ever more aggression and ever more violation of international norms and laws, the commentator says.
That has consequences that many leaders in the West have not yet been willing to face up to, Skobov suggests. Politeness and appeals are not going to be enough to prompt Putin to change. “Putin can be stopped only by force” because Putinism is “an infection” of the international system, one that must destroy that system or be destroyed by it.
“In order not to die, the organism must suppress the source of the infection,” Skobov says; and in this case, “the surrounding world must force the Russian Federation to leave Crimea.” Nothing short of that will prevent Putin from behaving worse and worse and thus threatening the world more and more.
Further Reading:
- Beware of Russia’s bilateral cyber world order
- Moscow disseminating two messages on Ukraine, neither of which should be accepted, Eidman says
- Putin has crossed a Rubicon – Will the West respond?
- Without waiting for West, Ukraine must show the world ‘King Putin has no clothes,’ Mylovanov says
- Russian military leadership ordered escalation in Black Sea, Ukrainian army intercepts show
- ‘In Russia today, I see a country preparing for a major war,’ Pastukhov says
- Moscow pushing Ukraine toward becoming a nuclear power again, Pastukhov says
- When wars end without recognized victors and vanquished
- Falling ratings even more likely to lead Putin to large war than they were before 2014, Larionov says
- Latest military exercise shows ‘Kremlin is actively preparing for a world war,’ Felgenhauer says
- Moscow has complex system to run agents of influence abroad, Khmelnytskyi says
- Moscow seeking to provoke revolts in Ukraine’s Azov Sea ports, Ukrainian admiral says
- If Russia isn’t forced to return Crimea to Ukraine, major war becomes inevitable, Skobov says
