Copyright © 2024 Euromaidanpress.com

The work of Euromaidan Press is supported by the International Renaissance Foundation

When referencing our materials, please include an active hyperlink to the Euromaidan Press material and a maximum 500-character extract of the story. To reprint anything longer, written permission must be acquired from [email protected].

Privacy and Cookie Policies.

NATO won’t do more than express concern, if Putin attacks another former Soviet republic, Illarionov says

Image: flickr.com
NATO won’t do more than express concern, if Putin attacks another former Soviet republic, Illarionov says
Edited by: A. N.

If Vladimir Putin sends his forces to seize into any of the former Soviet republics — including the three Baltic states which are NATO members — the Western alliance won’t do anything more than express “deep concern” because the major European governments will be led by “people loyal to Russia,” according to Andrey Illarionov.

Andrei Illarionov, Russian economist and former adviser to Putin (2000-2005), senior fellow in the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC
Andrei Illarionov, Russian economist and former adviser to Putin (2000-2005), senior fellow in the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC

Because ever more NATO countries appear likely to be led by such people in the near future, the commentator says, they will be ever more willing to “cooperate with the dictator from Russia” and ever less ready “to risk anything for the defense even of NATO borders not to speak of countries like Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia and others.”

As a result, “on this space, which now exists in a vacuum deprived of security will occur what Putin has often talked about, the realization of [his] program of ‘the Russian world.’” And Moscow “one way or another will seek the establishment of control by military and non-military means over a greater part of Ukraine, Belarus, Transdniestria, and part of Georgia.”

“It is thus not excluded,” Illarionov says, that Moscow will seek to gain control of “northeastern Estonia and eastern Latvia.”

“We know,” he told a recent meeting in Poland, “what answer NATO and the Western world will give to these actions. There will be no answer.” Or more precisely, there will be expressions of concern regarding “the violation of international law” and “the violation of all principles which we have known since World War II. But there won’t be any concrete response.”

Given the likelihood of that, the Russian commentator says, Putin is likely to achieve his goals.

Tragically, Illarionov may prove to be correct, although all people of good will should hope he isn’t.

Putin has shown himself a master of combining aggression in some spheres with expressions of a desire to cooperate in others and to simply wait out Western leaders who feel themselves compelled to show progress by reaching an accord with him.

And even more worrisome, there is an increasing willingness in the West to accept the the former Soviet space as lying within Russia’s droit de regard and to say that because Moscow’s moves are confined to the former Soviet space, they do not threaten the West and should be viewed as a rather typical sorting out of imperial legacies.

But such views entail two kinds of dangers that should matter very much to the West.

  • On the one hand, if many in the region conclude that Illarionov is right, some may surrender but others may behave in more radical ways, provoking a Russian imperialist response that could threaten ever more of the Soviet region.
  • And on the other, despite what Putin and his admirers may think and even suggest, there is no indication that Putin has any intention of stopping at the Soviet borders.

His actions in Syria in support of a dictator there should convince anyone open to convincing that he has a much larger and more dangerous agenda – and that if he is not blocked now, he will pursue it.


 

Edited by: A. N.
You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this.  We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!

To suggest a correction or clarification, write to us here

You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter

Please leave your suggestions or corrections here


    Will the West continue to support Ukraine?
    • Know what moves the world.
    • Stay informed with Kompreno.
    • Get quality journalism from across Europe.
    Special discount
    for Euromaidan Press readers
    Euromaidan Press

    We are an independent media outlet that relies solely on advertising revenue to sustain itself. We do not endorse or promote any products or services for financial gain. Therefore, we kindly ask for your support by disabling your ad blocker. Your assistance helps us continue providing quality content. Thank you!

    Related Posts