Copyright © 2024 Euromaidanpress.com

The work of Euromaidan Press is supported by the International Renaissance Foundation

When referencing our materials, please include an active hyperlink to the Euromaidan Press material and a maximum 500-character extract of the story. To reprint anything longer, written permission must be acquired from [email protected].

Privacy and Cookie Policies.

Putin needs a victory and annexing Belarus on the cheap could give him one, Oreshkin says

Belarus president Alyaksandr Lukashenka inspecting troops at a joint Belarusian-Russian military exercise
Putin needs a victory and annexing Belarus on the cheap could give him one, Oreshkin says
Edited by: A. N.

Having suffered increasingly obvious “fiascos” in Ukraine and Syria, Vladimir Putin now needs “a victory,” Dmitry Oreskhin says. “And it turns out that Belarus and Lukashenka are the most suitable variant whom he could defeat with minimal costs” because “Belarus could not hold out for two weeks” if Moscow moved against it.

In an interview with RFE/RL’s Belarusian Service, the Russian political analyst says his conclusion reflects not what “fascist and nationalist groups” in Russia want – their influence on the Kremlin is minimal – but on Putin’s needs, something “much more serious than aggressive young people who take part in Russian Marches.”

According to Oreshkin, “Putin is seeking a formula which will allow him to justify his remaining in power without any change. The formulas can be various: opposition to the West, in-gathering of the Russian lands, the restoration of the USSR – something that will create a crisis situation so that people won’t be inclined to change horses in the middle of a stream.”

“During the last two years, such a crisis situation was created in the east of Ukraine, as a result of which Putin’s ratings in Russia strongly rose,” Oreshkin says. “But now people are beginning quietly to understand that things haven’t worked out as planned: Ukraine hasn’t joined Putin’s Eurasian Union, many people have been killed and Ukraine is moving toward Europe.”

Now it appears to them that Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka is also turning toward Europe because he needs money, and “everyone understands that Putin doesn’t have any.” Lukashenka has refused to agree to the opening of a Russian base there, and that has left Putin in a cold fury,” the Russian analyst says.

Everywhere he looks, Putin sees “fiascos” in Ukraine and in Syria “where the more involved he gets the more obvious that will be,” with Russians “gradually beginning to understand that someone blew up the airliner and the tragic losses of life as a result are “somehow connected with Syria.”

Consequently, Putin needs a victory, Oreshkin concludes, and Belarus and Lukashenka are “the most suitable” candidates that could give him one, especially since Moscow could overthrow the one and occupy the latter at “minimal cost.” If the Kremlin leader sends in the Russian army, “Belarus would not hold out for even two weeks.”

Edited by: A. N.
You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this.  We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!

To suggest a correction or clarification, write to us here

You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter

Please leave your suggestions or corrections here


    Euromaidan Press

    We are an independent media outlet that relies solely on advertising revenue to sustain itself. We do not endorse or promote any products or services for financial gain. Therefore, we kindly ask for your support by disabling your ad blocker. Your assistance helps us continue providing quality content. Thank you!

    Related Posts