Putin planning to interfere in Belarusian elections to replace Lukashenka, Sivitsky says

Putin and Lukashenka

Putin and Lukashenka 

Analysis & Opinion, Belarus, Russia

Russians already now are “considering scenarios of a so-called ‘transit of power’ in Belarus” in the parliamentary and presidential elections slated for 2019 and 2020 and “will try to interfere … in order to bring to power someone who will be able to completely fulfill [Moscow’s] strategic interests,” Arseny Sivitsky says.

Arseniy Sivitskiy (Image: krynica.info)

Arseny Sivitsky
(Image: krynica.info)

Moscow has taken that decision, the director of the Minsk Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies continues, because what Minsk expected from the union state between the two countries and what Moscow wants means that that structure has suffered a complete collapse.

Vladimir Putin almost from the very beginning “rejected the idea of an equal partnership between the two countries,” the only arrangement Alyaksandr Lukashenka was prepared to live with; and instead, the Kremlin leader has in fact “proposed the variant of an incorporation of Belarus into the Russian Federation.”

According to Sivitsky, Moscow’s views on the idea of a united state including Belarus and Russia had a major impact on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Russia’s “aggression against Ukraine showed that Russia was ready to begin a war even with a fraternal people if this corresponded to the strategic goals of Russian elites.”

Lukashenka has certainly read the handwriting on the wall, even if he continues on some occasions to use the vocabulary reflecting his earlier hopes.

At the same time, however, the Minsk expert says, “Belarus as before remains very important for the Kremlin because it is a unique buffer and the shortest path for a corridor to Kaliningrad,” the Russian exclave.

“Consequently, the Kremlin can’t allow that Belarus will pass out from under its control.”

From Moscow’s point of view, “the ideal variant would be the transformation of Belarus into a completely subservient satellite which would fulfill everything that they want in the Kremlin.” Lukashenka whatever else is not going to play that role. And so the Kremlin is planning for regime change and plans to interfere in the elections to advance it.

Read More:

Edited by: A. N.

Since you’re here – we have a favor to ask. Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine is ongoing, but major news agencies have gone away. But we’re here to stay, and will keep on providing quality, independent, open-access information on Ukrainian reforms, Russia’s hybrid war, human rights violations, political prisoners, Ukrainian history, and more. We are a non-profit, don’t have any political sponsors, and never will. If you like what you see, please help keep us online with a donation!

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

  • Ihor Dawydiak

    A very sound article with the last paragraph resonating the most. However, trying to replace Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka with someone much more pliable without resorting to an all out invasion (probably ruled out for the time being as being too costly for several reasons) will not be as simple as it may sound. To begin with, Lukashenka has firmly entrenched himself as a dictator (partly patterned in a hybrid of Stalinist and Titoist traditions) and has proven himself to be a wily politician who has carved a niche between his own personal and Belarusian interests versus the interests of Russia (Putin) and the West. Had it been a simpler task, Putin would have removed Lukashenka from power a long time ago.

    • MichaelA

      exactly
      i smell a rat
      this may be lukashenka getting ready to say that any candidate who does well against him must have been supported by russian black ops
      or
      trying to frighten belarusian nationalists into giving luka more support because the alternative could be worse

      • Ihor Dawydiak

        Yes indeed. In fact, Lukashenka has used that tactic before whenever he felt that he was being threatened by Putin and company. This in turn has annoyed Russia’s Grand Pompous Pederast to no end since both he and Lukashenka have mirrored each other in using similar strategies.

      • Alex George

        Well spotted. I was thinking the same thing.

  • zorbatheturk

    Lukashenko’s little moustache is reminiscent of a past European dictator.

  • zorbatheturk

    Cockroaches’R’Us.