Northern Kazakhstan likely to be Putin’s next target for aggression

Putin's speech at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow in February 2012, almost exactly two years before he commanded the Russian military to start the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. (Image: Ilya Varlamov)

Putin's speech at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow in February 2012, almost exactly two years before he commanded the Russian military to start the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. (Image: Ilya Varlamov) 

Analysis & Opinion, Russia

Given that Vladimir Putin very much hopes to get a new political boost like the one he received following the Crimean Anschluss, there is “a high degree of probability” that he will seek to incorporate into the Russian Federation a portion of some other post-Soviet state, according to a Moscow blogger.

The Kremlin leader’s choices are not that large, the “Conscience” Movement writer says:

  • Belarus could be absorbed almost at will;
  • Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia are on the way to being taken in;
  • Transdniestria is a problem because Ukraine is in between; and
  • The Baltic countries are in NATO.

That leaves northern Kazakhstan, he continues, and he gives three reasons for thinking that Putin will attack precisely there.

First, Northern Kazakhstan has a predominantly ethnic Russian population and thus the argument Putin invoked in the case of Crimea could be deployed again and with probable success.

Second, Kazakhstan’s president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, is 77, and has been in power since Soviet times. That means, the blogger says, that since 1991, many aspects of the communist system continue to exist, something that will make it easier for Russia to annex and absorb those parts of it dominated by ethnic Russians.

And third, annexing northern Kazakhstan would “solve for Russia a transportation problem” because at present, the main rail line connecting Russia with the Far East passes through Kazakh territory, something which “creates a mass of bureaucratic problems for the Kremlin” that annexation could solve.

“When might one expect the massive arrival of ‘little green men’ on the territory of Northern Kazakhstan?” the blogger asks rhetorically. “If Putin remains in power for a fourth term, this should happen in the next six years because Nazarbayev hardly will survive longer than that.” But it could happen very soon if Putin needs a victory and can’t find one elsewhere.

But the most important reason Putin may seek a “Northern Kazakhstan is ours” strategy, the blogger concludes is that “having become in the eyes of the people the Ingatherer of Russian lands, he would gain the moral right to the additional correction of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and thus guarantee his reign without end.”

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Edited by: A. N.

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  • Tony

    Yes, russia needs more enemies. Full speed to the abyss chant russians.

    • AmounRah

      Wow you will believe just about any fairy tale as long as it has “Anti-Russian propaganda” wrapped around it right?

      • Murf

        It not the case of believing fairy tails. It’s the case of hoping Putin is stupid enough to do it.
        Hay, he was stupid enough to attack his largest weapons supplier and get in a trade war with his largest customer so so never underestimate the power of hubris.
        Not even George Bush was that stupid.

        • AmounRah

          “It’s the case of hoping Putin is stupid enough to do it.”

          lol, exactly what i said: you will believe (and hope) for anything as long as it has “Anti-Russian propaganda” wrapped around it.

          • MichaelA

            no he believes it because it is rational to do so
            unlike your russian fairytales

          • Murf

            Like I said he has done stupider things.
            Like draining the pension fund to pay for a sporting event.
            Smart!

          • AmounRah

            Legit looked for that on the net out of curiosity, did not find anything.
            Please share where you got that.

            Also, I am very, very surprised that someone as passionate as you does not discuss your president, who is robbing a starving country blind while pointing fingers.
            So this really makes me wonder…..if you are actually anti-corruption, or just simply…..anti-Putin

          • Murf

            Don’t talk about Trup here for the same reason I don’t talk about who I think will win the Super Bowl, this is a Ukraine site and that includes Russia thanks to Putin’s aggression.
            Try to stay focused and resort to cheap diflections.
            Speaking of Putin who are you going to cheer for now that Russia is uninvited?

          • AmounRah

            Wow
            Censoring me already and telling me what to talk about and what not to talk about. Yup, You are Ukrainian alright.

            And we both know it was Poroshenko I was talking about.
            What are your thoughts on that?
            He is Ukrainian (supposedly) and it is a Ukrainian issue on a Ukrainian site. :)

          • Murf

            Try America.
            And Again try staying focused, you might find it refreshing from your normal ADD induced mind wanderings.

      • zorbatheturk

        Another tool out of the box.

        • AmounRah

          Don’t speak in 3rd person, it’s weird
          And do not be so hard on your self.

          • MichaelA

            no you shouldnt be so hard on yourself
            russia has many enemies and few friends in the world
            its only friends are other pariah nations
            and this is all russias own fault

  • veth

    Answering the question about the annexation of Crimea, Lavrov said: “The issue is closed once and for all,” the Russian foreign ministry wrote.

    Read alsoOccupation authorities allow “write-off” of debts of Crimea residents to Ukraine banksAccording to him, it is a question of “a free, democratic expression of the will of Crimea residents, who made an informed choice in favor of peace and prosperity”.

    He claimed that the will of the inhabitants of the peninsula expressed in the referendum allowed them to “avoid the horrors of the civil war that the Kyiv authorities are getting up in Donbas for over three years”.

    Strange civil war,when more than 5000 Russians soldiers are killed already, and Russia downed MH17,AND STILL 9000 OCCUPATION TROOPS.

    • Murf

      Funny he has been saying that for years now
      And yet the issue keeps coming up.
      I wonder why?
      Maybe the issue is not closed after all.
      Threatened new US sanctions would seem to support that conclusion.

      • Ihor Dawydiak

        True enough. An international dispute of this kind cannot be unilaterally closed by Russia. It can only be closed if the Ukrainian participants in collaboration with the Crimean Tatar community and the international community agree to a closure along with their Russian counterparts. It could also be closed if all parties to the dispute were to agree and abide by a final dispute resolution made by the International Court of Justice based in The Hague, The Netherlands.

  • Ihor Dawydiak

    Aside from the points outlined in the article, there could be another potential strategy that would interest Putin in annexing Northern Kazakhstan. This would involve a simultaneous withdrawal from Ukraine’s Eastern Donbas Region which has in effect caused a major drain in the Russian economy as well as becoming a serious political liability. However, withdrawing from Eastern Donbas without receiving anything substantial in return could prove to be very problematic for Russia’s Grand Pederast. Therefore, why not distract the Russian public by invading Northern Kazakhstan. Mind you, Western sanctions would in all probability remain in place as the Russian occupation of Ukrainian Crimea would remain as a major irritant and the matter of future aggression against other East European countries would also remain as a distinct possibility.

    • Tony

      russia would just trade some Ukraine related sanctions for Kazakhstan related sanctions, but russians might be too dumb to notice.

    • AmounRah

      Wow,
      Speculators, speculating on article that speculates.
      This site is truly the cesspool of propaganda….

      “Russian occupation of Ukrainian Crimea”
      Welcome to 2017 (approaching 2018).
      Quick update:
      Crimea is obviously Russian and is not “occupied”
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/03/20/one-year-after-russia-annexed-crimea-locals-prefer-moscow-to-kiev/

      • Murf

        70 years later the Palestinians are still opposing the formation of Israel from “their lands”
        Wars start when you choose but rarely end when you would prefer.

        • AmounRah

          I hope you can clarify what you were trying to say with that post ( I am not being sarcastic by the way)

          • Murf

            You and the Putin overs may WANT this to be over but it is not.
            The Palestinians are current example of how long these things can last.
            In fact for the foreseeable future Ukraine has zero reason to make a settlement. Donbas is the hot potato in this scenario. who ever is holding it is loosing.
            Right now that Putin.
            So this war began when he choose to but it is not ending anytime soon
            Inspite of claims (or wishfull thinking) to the contrary.

          • AmounRah

            “In fact for the foreseeable future Ukraine has zero reason to make a settlement”
            ….are you trying to say that Ukraine has no interest in ending the conflict?…
            Actually no wait, you are actually right on that one. The longer they stretch this civil war, the more chances they have to tar Russia.

            “So this war began when he choose to but it is not ending anytime soon”
            I think you are warping the reality a little. The war began when Ukrainian army attacked Donbass, which citizens were defending after Right Sector junta took over Kiev and threatened Crimea. But because that was in the way of the take over, the term “rebels” slowly warped into “terrorists” and were shelled by unguided ballistic missiles, killing civilians (confirmed by NATO)

          • MichaelA

            the war began when russian operatives tried to start popular insurrections throughout eastern ukraine
            they failed
            the people did not want to be ruled by the kremlin
            the russian operatives were pushed out by the ukrainian army
            so then putin sent in the russian army
            they were better equipped and organised than the ukrainians but they got nowhere

          • Murf

            Streklov said he couldn’t raise 1000 men to fight for Donbas and had to call for volunteers from… you guessed it. Russia.
            So much for your righteous war theroy

          • AmounRah

            “My” righteous war theory?
            Please do not put words in my mouth.

            The fact is: Ukrainian Army, attacked and sh3lled civilians who did not want to submit to the violently instated coup government.

            The fact that there are fighters from all over the world, is also, a fact. On both sides you got Polish fighters, fighters from Sweden, American, Canada. And on both sides too. Does that mean that those other countries are also attacking Ukraine?

          • Murf

            The facts are the Russians CHOSE to use civilians as human body armor.
            According to the Laws of Land Warfare that made them legitimate targets.
            Just like the civilians in Grozny and Aleppo.
            What’s more states have an inherent right to secure their territory.
            By the th
            I’ve the artillery came into play the “republics” had already decorated indipendance and had held a referendum.
            So they were in open rebellion.
            What was the Russian response when The Chechens did the same thing?
            Now hitting civilians in a war zone is not inherently illegal.
            Targeting them is.
            So Russians carpet bombing Grozny and hospitals in Syria is a war crime.
            Please show real proof that Ukraine physically targeted civilians.
            Dead by standers is not proof.

          • AmounRah

            “The facts are the Russians CHOSE to use civilians as human body armor.” They were Ukrainians…..and wow……what the f* is wrong with you guys…….
            No freakin wonder Ukraine is falling apart.

            Disgusting….just effin disgusting.
            Blocked.

      • Ihor Dawydiak

        Free speech is a cornerstone in any true democracy to which Russia does not qualify. That in turn is the primary reason why kremtrolls are avid haters of free speech since their Kremlin masters have almost always repudiated free speech in Russia.

      • MichaelA

        crimea is obviously ukrainian and it is occupied by a hostile and imperialistic power
        russia owns crimea in the same sense that hitler owned france in 1942 – until he didnt

  • Eolone
  • AmounRah

    Euromaidan press is doing a great job at exactly what it does: Spreading propaganda, SPECULATING, making things up and instilling fear.

    • Ihor Dawydiak

      Rubbish. The Euromaidan Press has done a good job of expressing both the truth and reality as it stands. Kremlin trolls on the other hand only regurgitate a constant stream of lies and fairy tales with the hope that some of the mud that they fling against the wall will stick.

      • AmounRah

        No,
        Neither reality, nor truth.
        All this site does is collect $$ from Ad revenue while feeding on emotions of people

        “Kremlin trolls on the other hand only regurgitate a constant stream of lies ” Kind of ironic seeing the same sentence from many pro-Right Sector/etc posters while talking about “Kremlin trolls” (because America told them they exist) saying the same thing

        • MichaelA

          except that as usual you cannot come up with a single instance of euromaidan press reporting anything but truth
          and this example is hilarious – ep is reporting what a RUSSIAN blogger wrote!
          its always a good idea to read an article before responding to it amounrah

          • Ihor Dawydiak

            More sewer gas from amounrah. This individual makes the absurd assumption that many or perhaps most of those who criticize Herr “big breasts” are from the “pro-Right Sector” or are influenced by alleged American propaganda. In reality, those who are critical of Russia’s Pompous Pederast range across the ideological spectrum as well as those who have different views on different issues. As for being influenced by alleged American propaganda, that is equally ridiculous. Anyone who is reasonably educated, informed and open minded can make the clear distinction between right or wrong and does not need someone else to make that decision for them.

    • https://disqus.com/home/channel/imperialnewsnetwork/recent/ ℳɨke

      No, that’s RT.

  • Murf

    I think I am going to have to disagree with this theory.
    1) its been done already and now done to death. 2014 Hybrid war was new and Putin;s boldness caught everybody off guard. That is no the case now. When little Green men show up you don’t hesitate. Move on them hard and don’t worry about the side effects.

    2) Kazakhstan is not in finical trouble or experiencing social upheaval. If FSB can take out Nazarbayev that could change. Other wise Kazakhstan is a though nut to crack militarily. Unlike Ukraine and Georgia they have not neglected their military

    3) China is making a push into Central Asia as demonstrated by their Silk Road project. They are not just going to sit back and watch Russia throw a monkey wrench in that plan. Unlike their push into the South China Sea, they will not be confronting the US. In fact this would be a golden opportunity to flex their military muscle with interference from the west other than a token”We are concerned about the situation in Kazakhstan.” Indeed having putin brought down a peg would the a desirable out come for the West.

    4) Putin’s resources are shrinking while his obligations in Donbas and Syria are no closer to being over than they were three years ago. A small increase in the price of oil is not going to change that only slow the decent.

    5) The Russian people are less concerned with Circuses and are more interested in Bread.

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      Peking would simply agree with Kazakhstan to lay a new railway line bypassing the occupied part of the country; the Chinese probably have already started to plan for such an eventuality.
      Even if the EU didn’t react to such an invasion, the US most certainly would. And if the dwarf thinks that US sanctions are already maxed out, he ain’t seen nothing yet.
      The last thing the dwarf needs is a third war- and I don’t expect Astana to take an invasion of “little green men” lying down. He’d be bogged down in a third quagmire with mounting costs and casualties but little to show for it. He’s already overstretcehd by the Donbas and Syria, and despite all claims to the contrary the fighting in Syria is far from over.

      As for the oil price, it’s down to $58 now as more rigs, especially in the US, are commissioned. Trend falling. So the dwarf only had temporary relief, which doesn’t solve his problems one bit.

  • MichaelA

    the first reason is a problem for the kremlin
    because in eastern ukraine the ethnic russians did not rise up to welcome russian agents
    they rejected kremlin rule
    that is why russia is afraid to invade the baltics

    • gmab

      Baltics are NATO- he would never invade. he’ll just do what he does in every country-annoy & destabilize in covert manner.