With reforms impossible, some Russians predict revolution, Baklanov says

A street scene in St. Petersburg, Russia, the city where Vladimir Lenin's group launched the Bolshevik coupe d'etat of 1917. Lenin and Stalin impersonators giving money to a beggar maimed in one of Putin's wars. (Image: Alexander Petrosyan)

A street scene in St. Petersburg, Russia, the city where Vladimir Lenin's group launched the Bolshevik coupe d'etat of 1917. Lenin and Stalin impersonators giving money to a beggar maimed in one of Putin's wars. (Image: Alexander Petrosyan) 

International, More

Given that Vladimir Putin has signaled that any serious reforms in the near term are unlikely or even impossible, ever more Russians are predicting revolution, especially as that country enters the centenary of the two revolutions of 1917, Aleksandr Baklanov says.

That doesn’t mean that a revolution will happen – indeed, it may be an indication that none will occur – but it does define the kind of discourse that is offered ever more frequently by Moscow analysts and commentators and one that will help shape public debate even if it does not prove to be an accurate prediction.

The news editor of the Snob.ru portal says that

some Russians are predicting that “a convulsion awaits Russia in 2017, a social explosion or even a revolution. Some even name a precise date” when this will happen, “others advise buying dollars,” and a third group says it is a mistake to “look for a mystical link between 1917 and 2017.”

In fact, Baklanov points out, Russians have been predicting a revolution in Russia for quite some time. “One of the first” to do so, he was former Duma deputy speaker Vladimir Ryzhkov who in December 2005 said “a new revolution will begin in October 2017.”

Artistic impression of Bloody Sunday in St. Petersburg, Russia (22 January, 1905), the precursor of the armed overthrow of the Provisional Government in November 1917 (the October Revolution), which started the Russian civil war and economic collapse, replacing the monarchy with a communist totalitarian regime.

Artistic impression of Bloody Sunday in St. Petersburg, Russia (22 January, 1905), the precursor of the armed overthrow of the Provisional Government in November 1917 (the October Revolution), which started the Russian civil war and economic collapse, replacing the monarchy with a communist totalitarian regime.

Others have followed. In November 2012, political analyst Sergey Chernyakhovsky said that there is every reason to think that there will be a revolution in Russia in 2017 because “the situations of 1917 and 2017 are very similar,” a position KPRF activist Andrey Sartakov shared in November 2013.

In 2015, economist Yevgeny Gontmakher made the same argument and suggested that a revolution could break out in 2017, and later in the same year, former Yukos head and émigré activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky said “revolution in Russia is inevitable,” although he gave no date.

As 2017 approached, ever more Russians made such suggestions and made them more concrete. Saratov deputy Vyacheslav Maltsev, for example, not only said that there would be a revolution in Russia in 2017 but gave a precise date that he said it would break out: November 5.

“On that date, a revolution will occur in Russia,” he said. What it will look like, however, will depend on “how many people want to return to a constitutional arrangement.” If their numbers are large, it could lead to a peaceful transfer of power; if they are smaller or if the regime remains confident, it could be “bloody.”

Baklanov suggests there are three main scenarios suggested by those who see a revolution ahead.

The first is a popular rising, and it is clear that the Kremlin is “already preparing for that.” It has been conducting exercises to get its force structures ready and it is seeking to measure the protest potential of young people.

The phrase under the photo of Vladimir Lenin’s sculpture: “Waiting for 2017.” The tweet: “In waiting… #Lenin #Revolution #1917 #2017.”


That is a reasonable precaution, of course, but some analysts, including sociologist Natalya Tikhonova say that the protests the regime is likely to face in the coming spring and summer may be far larger than anyone now thinks and thus challenge the ability of the regime to contain them.

The second favored scenario, Baklanov continues, is a more prolonged crisis without the explosion of a popular rising or revolution. According to one survey of leading economists from various countries, half think there will be protests but far fewer think there will be a revolution. One argued that “the political reaction to poverty will be apathy rather than revolution.”

And the third scenario is “a revolution in people’s minds” rather than in the streets. MGIMO professor Valeriy Solovey is one of the supporters of this idea. He says that “a bloody revolution” is excluded because it would lead to the disintegration of the Russian Federation.

But public attitudes may change in significant ways and these changes “will begin precisely in 2017,” not because of the “magic of numbers” but because of the coincidence of factors, he argues.

“If we say that everything today is in the hands of the powers that be,” Solovey says; “we must not forget that the authorities who have no competitors will inevitably make ever more mistakes. Plus the general situation will feed that: the country’s resources will begin to run out, and dissatisfaction will increase.”

The graphic: “November 5, 2017 – Be Ready.” The tweet: “We don’t wait, we get ready! The deadline Nov-5-2017.”

“It is one thing when you have to wait a year or two, but when you are given to understand … that you may have to wait your entire life (20 years of stagnation and then what?), your worldview begins to change” and you begin to think about radical means of achieving that change.

Russians “experienced a similar situation at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of ht 1990s, just before the destruction of the USSR. Because at first revolutions take place in people’s minds. This isn’t even a readiness of people to speak against the authorities.” Rather, it is one where people begin to question the legitimacy of those who are holding them back.

Of course, Baklanov says, there is a fourth scenario these visionaries of revolution don’t offer. It is that “nothing” will change at all in 2017. Political analyst Dmitry Travin is among those who doubts that any revolution in Russia is possible anytime soon.

According to Travin, “the current political situation is not like the events of 1917.” Rather it is Brezhnev’s stagnation but with shops full of food and a generally accepted view that Russia has been forced to live as “a besieged fortress,” an attitude that leads people to support the regime and the regime to take steps to make sure Russians continue to feel that way.


Edited by: A. N.

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  1. Avatar laker48 says:

    The revolution will start after Putler’s kleptocracy runs out of money to pay their goons.

  2. Avatar Turtler says:

    It wouldn’t be surprising. Revolution seems to be the only way Russians have been able to get through the teeth of the state and its’ institutions to break new ground.

    And given the nature of Putin’s Kremlin, I don’t see internal reform being a thing.

    1. Avatar Czech Mate says:

      but slaves are still too timid as the percieved strength of their master is still there. But once Putler’s chair is shaken or he cracks down too heavily…oh dear, the domino will start its play.

      1. Avatar Turtler says:

        Indeed, let us hope that happens soon. Lord knows Russia is long overdue for it.

        1. Avatar Rafael Hernandez says:

          Russia will never bow down to the west again.

          1. Avatar Turtler says:

            Russia has never bowed to the West period, except in times where it tried to beat it but could not. But that was bowing down to inevitability.

            The west has been quite willing to have Russia be a happy, cooperative member of the international community. It has been the grandiosity of the Kremlin- Tsarist, Soviet, and now Putinite- that has scuttled that.

          2. Avatar Rafael Hernandez says:

            That is a lie, and you know it

          3. Avatar Turtler says:

            No, I don’t know it. And considering I probably know a Fair lot more than you do, that says it.

            But for the sake of the argument: when did this bow down happen, in your opinion?

          4. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            Dwarfstan will kowtow to Peking- indeed, it already is.

          5. Avatar Quartermaster says:

            The Reds in Moscow were genuinely scared by the Red Chinks. I imagine they are positively horrified now.

          6. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            There’s always the chink in the armour…….

        2. Avatar Czech Mate says:

          We should aim for Kremlinals to turn their agression inwards not outside as they have purposefully done so far. Once they hit their own, using too much power out of paranoia, things could start moving but no sooner.

          But we’re getting there…

  3. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

    RuSSia does not exactly have a great track record when it comes to revolutions, does it?

  4. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

    I guess I will have to change my moniker to Zorbakovsky, start a political party in ruSSia called the Vodka Peoples Party, and take over the horrible place myself.

    1. Avatar RedSquareMaidan says:

      Red Square Maidan is coming!

      1. Avatar veth says:


        1. Avatar laker48 says:

          There may be a lot of blood in RuSSian streets later this year.

      2. Avatar Rafael Hernandez says:

        Russians are smart not to sell their country like western Ukrainains did

        1. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

          Russian history shows RuSSians are anything but smart.

        2. Avatar gmab says:

          Russians have nothing left to sell. Putler & his mafia own it all & all the loans from the west will be unpaid. He’s already starting to sell shares to the West of state-owned companies. History repeats itself. lol

          1. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            Pedo Putolini sells shares because he knows that he can easily annul those sales whenever he wants, leaving the buyers with worthless paper. Only idiots put their money in Dwarfstanian companies. Relying on the law in Dwarfstan is lunacy, as the law is what the dwarf says it is- today this, tomorrow that, next week something else.

    2. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

      Why not Boyaryshnik People’s Party???? That seems to be Dwarfstan’s favourite “beverage” these days! Promise the Dwarfstanian people free Boyaryshnik and watch the votes pour in.

      1. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

        I will replace the municipal water supply with free vodka from the taps.

  5. Avatar Vol Ya says:

    Why is Putin spending so much money and effort to spread anti Ukraine propaganda.
    Maybe it is because he doesn’t want to talk about russia’s problems. Their GDP is declining for 3 years now. They have a huge budget deficit. More importantly Russia’s population is declining, alcoholism rates are increasing, and life expectancy is declining in Russia. In short Russia is dying a slow death. So instead of fixing russia’s problems Putin focuses on attacking Ukraine. That won’t fix any of russia’s problems.

    1. Avatar Oknemfrod says:

      Putler couldn’t care less about Russia’s problems. His plan, from day one, has been to suck it dry while it still has anything suckable, hold on to power while it’s still holdable, and escape Russia to greener pastures while it’s still escapable. For the latter, I’m sure as I’m sitting here, he has his plan Z ready and thoroughly well-oiled with the very billions he’s pilfered from his brainwashed populace.

      1. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

        But where would Pedo Putolini run to????? Minsk? Astana? I doubt whether either Lukashenko or Nazarbaev would welcome him after his repeated threats of sending in his “little green men” to “protect the Dwarfstanian minorities in Belarus and Kazakhstan”. Peking won’t want him either. Nor, I suspect, will any of the other Stans.
        Yanukovich had the option of running to Moscow, but the dwarf’s only option would be Pyongyang. I don’t see him running to Zimbabwe, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela or Bolivia.

        1. Avatar Quartermaster says:

          Frankly, Yanukovich had better be looking for another perch , and soon. Given he’s a fugitive from Ukrainian justice, if Russia collapses in revolution this year, he’s very likely to be turned over to Kyiv.

          If Putin does have millions to take with him, he’ll be welcome many places in the 3rd world. That’s assuming he’s already got it out of the country and to a place it’s secure.

          1. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Quite a few rich folks have been moving to Singapore.

        2. Avatar Oknemfrod says:

          A good question, and I’ve expected it, but Quartermaster has already given a good answer, except that the dwarf’s wherewhithal is quite a bit more massive than “millions”. He’s pilfered and offshored enough billions (with a “b”) to buy a tropical island belonging to some unscrululous third-world power and transform it into an oasis for himself and his retinue, replete with marinas, airstrips, etc. In fact, I’d be surprised if such preparations aren’t underway already in a much more organized and qualified manner than any of his great construction projects back home.

          1. Avatar Czech Mate says:

            I think you nailed it.

          2. Avatar Oknemfrod says:

            Děkuji mnohokrát.

          3. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Dubai will welcome him. He can live in a newbuild palace on ” Russia ” in the ” World ” development. Plenty of banks, malls, russian hookers, and flight connections. It is where the exiled former billionaire PM of Thailand has based himself.

          4. Avatar Oknemfrod says:

            Here you go, for one.

          5. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            The dwarf isn’t interested in hookers, Dwarfstanian or otherwise. All he wants is a steady supply of little boys he can abuse with impunity.

          6. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            No, but his minders will be very interested! The Putin will not run into exile alone…

          7. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            I doubt whether many will accompany the dwarf into exile.

            Once he has lost power you can bet your last worthless rubble that his assets will be frozen. I think western intelligence agencies have a pretty good idea where the loot is parked, and it won’t be in territories controlled by the dwarf. Without access to his ill-gotten gains the dwarf won’t be able to afford a security service.

            Another point to consider is that the dwarf will be hunted by his enemies and a place such as Dubai is far too open. No, the dwarf will seek and find refuge in a very closed society and North Korea is his best option in that respect.

          8. Avatar gmab says:

            My guess also. He’s been there, loves the people (he has a star-struck following) and is rumoured to be building a vacation palace in the hills. What safer place than NK?

        3. Avatar Czech Mate says:

          Iran, but I wouldn’t rule out Chinese and their good doggie, certain fatso Kim…after all, kgb rat loves his gulags.

        4. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

          What’s to stop him moving to Switzerland?

  6. Avatar Dirk Smith says:

    Expect Maidan Moscow next spring. Especially after Navalny accidentally disappears or is murdered.

    1. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

      I disagree. Unlike Ukrainians, Dwarfstanians are a bunch of lethargic and apathetic Oblomovs who prefer to wallow in self-pity, moaning about their “loss of empire”. PERHAPS they will finally start to wake up when everything has collapsed around them, thanks to the dwarf’s destructive policies.
      They did nothing when Nemtsov was murdered, and they will do nothing when Navalny is murdered.

      1. Avatar laker48 says:

        I’m afraid you’re right. The Dwarfstanian sheeple won’t move until they’re being buried under the falling rubble (pun intended) and the Dwarf runs out of dough to pay his Praetorians.

  7. Avatar Terry Washington says:

    To quote John F.Kennedy, “those who make peaceful evolution impossible tend to make violent revolution inevitable!” My only criticism of any such violent revolution in Russia is the long term consequences of an action- Aleksandr Solhsenitsyn in the second volume of “The Gulag Archipelago” quotes an emigre professor of statisticians, I. I. Kurganov to the effect that between 1917 and 1959, some SIXTY SIX MILLION men, women and children, lost their lives due to the new Bolshevik regime(presumably in civil war, various mass purges, collectivization and finally world war II)

  8. Avatar Scradje says:

    How lucky were Reagan/Thatcher that they had a reasonable person to deal with in the shape of Gorbachev. (Although in his old age he has turned nasty and gone full putler). And how unlucky we all are now to live in a world where the sheer evil of putler is matched only by the sheer crassness, stupidity and naïveté of his grotesque sycophant,Trumpkov.
    Thanks to an army of western useful idiots and Kremlin assets such as wikileaks, Alex Jones, Michael Savage, Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen and now seemingly half of Trumpkov’s cabinet, putler’s fascist murder gang is able to disseminate blizzards of lies, hate and disinformation on an industrial basis.
    How unlucky it was for everyone that Yeltsin was pressured out and his chosen successor, the very decent Nemtsov, was forced to be discarded to make way for the minature chekist thug. Should there be a revolution of dignity, Nemtsov’s friend Gary Kasparov would be an excellent pick to lead Russia into civilization.

    1. Avatar Quartermaster says:

      Presently, we have no idea how Trump will act once in office. Anyone campaigning for office makes ridiculous promises and then finds they can’t keep them because they are hemmed in by existing circumstances. He will be able to accomplish much domestically, but on the foreign scene, he will be hemmed in a lot more than he thinks.

      1. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

        When Putin was 35 he was living with his wife an his father in a two room dump in Petersburg. When Trump was 35 he was building a 58 storey luxury apartment tower on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan. Putin’s only wealth comes from bribes and what he has stolen, no different to any other slimy ruSSian oligarch who looted the industrial assets and access to natural resources of the RF. Abramovich and the guy who runs Gunvor in Switzerland are likely just bagmen and fronts for Putin money. I don’t see any way a serving US president can relate to crooks like the Putin gang.

        1. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

          Oh, I don’t know, I think Nixon could relate to Pedo Putolini and his fellow crooks. After all, although Nixon said “I am not a crook” he most definitely WAS.

          1. Avatar WisconsinUSA says:

            Nixon did not break the law for monetary gains.

          2. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            No, but he DID break the law to remain in power, so in that sense he DOES relate to the dwarf.

          3. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            There is no law as such in RuSSia.

          4. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Nixon was a slimy little rodent, it is true. However, Trump is a self-made billionaire unlike the Putinator who has made his cash under the table. Nor has Trump ever worked for a boss, except when he helped his father collect rents from the 10000 apartments in Queens and Brooklyn which daddy owned.

    2. Avatar Czech Mate says:

      perhaps despite his old age and possible blackmail, on Gorbachov we can assess the psycho fascist atmosphere of whipped up frenzy in Putler’s ruSSia.

      But please please, do keep in mind that Putin poisoned many and reversed the clock so it will have to get worse and much worse before it can get better.

      ruSSkies are lost for the next 10 years minimum and should ABSOLUTELY NOT GET ANY HELP THIS TIME AROUND. Their lesson must be hard and tough to bring home the message this time.

  9. Avatar anonymous says:

    Not considered in this article or comments are the western countries sanctions. Some considered these sanctions of little or no impact on the Russian economy. However, the impact was not to be short term but to impact over time. If those sanctions continue, there will be substantial impact within this next year or two. The sanctions were designed that way. However, soon the US has the pro Putin President Trump, Trump supporters, and Trump Republican party. President Trump will end sanctions and the Republican party will support their president’s pro Putin position (with some loud, empty, meaningless propaganda voices to confuse). Putin may really believe his propagandists lines that all the west follows the leader; the US presidential administration. If his propaganda is correct or works in Europe, then the Russian economy will get the western support required to keep the criminal Putin in power and his criminal organization running at full speed. If Europe and other western powers continue with sanctions without the US and increase their impact, the Russian economy may not get enough support from the US to continue. If Europe and others reject the Trump administration and Trump Republican party pro Putin position, there is hope for change in Russia. The most is important issue for Putin and his criminal organization is “will the west reject the Trump administration as the leader of the free world”.

    1. Avatar Vasyl P. says:

      Congress won’t allow lifting of sanctions on Russia. The republicans there are warhawks

      1. Avatar anonymous says:

        The Trump Republican Party will support their president’s decisions on foreign policy. “Allow” shows a complete lack of understanding of the current sanctions and the processes to sanction. President Trump will be able to end sanctions in a few pen strokes. Even if there were majority sanctions support in Congress, there would only be some sanctions speak; leaving enforcement to the presidential administration. The propaganda talk of a few Republican Senators is just to confuse the real position of the Republican Party; business with the Putin criminal organization; talk like a hawk to confuse.

        1. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

          Dream om. Pedo Putolini has a rubber-stamp Duma, but US Congress is anything but rubber-stamp. The US President can’t ignore Congress.

          1. Avatar anonymous says:

            Foreign policy is decided by the president. Congress seldom interferes in the policy decisions of their president, sometimes only frustrates the decisions of an opposition president. Foreign Policy will be decided by President Trump.

        2. Avatar laker48 says:

          The US Republican Party is not a Trump’s party. He’s been reluctantly accepted into it and they’ll watch his every move like hawks. Trump won’t do anything for RuSSia, as RuSSia doesn’t have anything to offer in return.

          1. Avatar anonymous says:

            Republican Party members will support their president. All else is propaganda by a few senators to confuse the real position of their party. If some number of members do not support President Trump(not just propaganda speak), Trump will split the party as he is not really a Republican. If that happened, the Republican party might not see another majority for decade(s) and possible no more presidency. Republicans cannot let that happen as they are opposed to Democrats more than anything else including the criminal Putin. Billions in business deals is what Russia offers to Trump, the Trump family, Trump’s billionaire friends with high paying jobs for Trump supporters. With European sanctions in place it actually funnels European payments for gas and oil through Russia to US businesses helping to develop Russian gas and oil.

          2. Avatar laker48 says:

            LOL! Rah, rah, rah! In your next post you’ll raise Trump to the status of God Almighty. Some people are so hopelessly stupid …

          3. Avatar anonymous says:

            No, not God, Trump’s only religion is billions. Trump will be the President of the United States of America with his party in a majority of both houses of Congress. Trump’s choices which require approval by Congress will be approved. Trump’s decisions on foreign policy will not be opposed (other than a few loud, empty, meaningless propaganda voices to confuse). It is only stupid if Republican majorities do not support their president. I really hope they do not and Trump’s pro Putin foreign policy decisions are blocked and the Republican Party splits and Democrats win in two years and further oppose President Trump and President Trump loses reelection. I hope but I know wishful thinking can be dangerous.

          4. Avatar laker48 says:

            “Trump’s choices which require approval by Congress will be approved.”
            Are you aware of the enormousness of your ignorance? Don’t you understand that there’s no party discipline in the US Congress, and all Congress people as well as senators are responsible directly to their constituents?

          5. Avatar anonymous says:

            “no party discipline”; you need to look at decades of party line voting in Congress. Certainly it is not 100% 100% of the time but it is party line voting. Party is number one with Republicans and Democrats and they know that if one party splits the other will run the country. It is somewhat sad that the US does not have a true multi-party system but that is, in reality, what we have; a two party democracy.

          6. Avatar laker48 says:

            Well, we’ll see it at the beginning of May when the Trump policies crystalise. I’ve already pointed to this in another post of mine in response to you. This horse is dead for the time being.

          7. Avatar anonymous says:

            Trump policies will be fully clear by Feb one. I hope that his election statements were just lies.

          8. Avatar laker48 says:

            LOL! One may always hope …

          9. Avatar veth says:


          10. Avatar anonymous says:

            Impeached by his own party; like that will happen.

          11. Avatar laker48 says:

            Why not?

          12. Avatar WisconsinUSA says:

            Why not, Mike Pence is just waiting in the wings. He is highly admired by the Republican billionaires.

          13. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Trump went to a military academy and an Ivy League university. He is half German, half Scottish. He is no Einstein, but not a total dummkop either. Sure, he watches a lot of television.

          14. Avatar WisconsinUSA says:

            He started off with $200 million from his dad. If he would have put that money in a S and P 500 index mutual fund back then he would be richer than he is today. Not so smart of a businessman.

          15. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            The Trumps are property developers. Like father, like son.

          16. Avatar anonymous says:

            He went bankrupt on the right side of the table in the gambling industry gaining 100’s of millions while banks lost 100’s of millions. He took gaining a million through bankruptcy to a whole knew level. Give him credit for his gambling con.

          17. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            He floated a company on Wall St and sold his crappy Atlantic City gambling assets and hotels into it at a nice profit. Trump bailed himself out, or Wall St did… when the stock later tanked, investors, banks, and bondholders took a haircut. Bad for them, good for Trump. It happens all the time, and it’s perfectly legal. So why do they do it? For the fees. IPOs and deals create nice juicy fat fees for the bankers, lawyers, and accountants.

          18. Avatar anonymous says:

            Not all rich businessmen are bankruptcy con men like Trump. Not all are fat cat criminals pretending to be business geniuses. Trump took the make a million in bankruptcy to a new level. Many do the con the way he did it but not at that level. Many businessmen would not do the con if they could. It takes a criminal mind to do the con.

          19. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Trump is a con artist, but he is not the only one. Some commentators like Harry Dent think he will be gone within a year. We shall see, as the actress said to the bishop.

            Harry Dent also thinks oil is going to $10 a barrel…

          20. Avatar anonymous says:

            All this talk about President Trump being gone is propaganda to attempt to confuse about the real position of the Republican Party; pro Trump and pro Putin.

          21. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Republicans are not pro Putin. Americans do not like ruSSia.

          22. Avatar anonymous says:

            Republicans nominated Trump, Trump supporters voted for Trump. Trump statements on Putin/Russia are clear. Trump is pro Putin, his supporters are pro Putin, the Republican Party is pro Putin. The proof is in the nomination and vote and his statements.

          23. Avatar laker48 says:

            LOL! And they lived happily ever after …. 🙂

          24. Avatar anonymous says:

            Maybe they will be happy with America as Putin’s friend. I cannot understand their pro Putin position but Trump understood how to win their votes as a Putin apologist/supporter. Perhaps when enough Orthodox Christians in Ukraine are killed, there will be a change of support but maybe not if there are enough high paying jobs.

          25. Avatar laker48 says:

            Don’t believe a honeymoon between Putin and Trump will last long, if it happens at all.

          26. Avatar anonymous says:

            Trump just called those who do not want warm ties with Russia stupid fools. All the sanctioning countries leaders are stupid fools; US, Canada, Australia, Norway, all of EU, Japan, Albania, Iceland and Montenegro, Ukraine, Switzerland. All leaders of the western democracies are stupid fools. The effort which was put into the sanctions is just foolish. Honeymoon is not the correct word at all. It will be the new world order of the US and Russia against western democracy; celebrate that Trump supporters and Republican Party; cheer for Putin. Make Russia Great Again.

          27. Avatar laker48 says:

            Yet to be seen. 🙂 Trump has always had a big mouth and I wouldn’t take anything he says at face value. Calm down!

          28. Avatar anonymous says:

            President Trump’s words are clear. President Trump’s position is clear. The policy of the future US administration is clear. What words don’t you understand? Quit with the Trump apologist nonsense. We have enough from Trump aids, Trump insiders, mouthy Republican senators, and Trump supporters. Take everything Trump says as the future US position. Calm down when Trump supports more sanctions, states the Crimea is Ukraine, and calls Putin a criminal.

          29. Avatar laker48 says:

            As I’ve already said, talk is cheap, especially Trump’s talk. He hasn’t been sworn in yes and neither of his appointees has been approved by Congress. Let’s wait and see. A cow that moos much, usually isn’t the most productive milker.

          30. Avatar anonymous says:

            Talk is not cheap. Words have impact especially from the president elect. Trump called foolish and stupid the leaders of the US most important allies and praised the most powerful criminal in history. There is nothing cheap there and those words are impacting throughout the world.

          31. Avatar laker48 says:

            Let’s wait and see. He may talk until the cows come home, but the US Congress holds the strings of the purse. The US has a well-designed and well-developed system of checks and balances. You’re repeating your mantra as a kindergarten kid, not a 69-year old, self-proclaiimed US college graduate. Nothing is written in stone and, as a supposedly college-educated, grown American man, you should have been able to tell when politicians are lying.

          32. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            The US Constitution is pretty much written in stone (unlike Dwarfstan’s), and Trump will have to abide by it.

          33. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            You are full of nonsense. Go back to kindergarten, and study, this time. Crayon drawings don’t count.

          34. Avatar anonymous says:

            Post one Trump critical statement of Putin/Russia actions.

          35. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Let’s wait till Trump becomes Potus.

          36. Avatar anonymous says:

            Wait for inauguration to post one critical statement. Like that will start of flow of criticism for Putin from President Trump.

          37. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            Whether the oil price goes down depends on the oil producing coutries sticking to the recent agreement. Given the history of OPEC agreements which were ignored sooner or later I doubt it. Many countries require a much higher price than the current level to balance the books, including Dwarfstan. The only way to get more $$$ is to sell more oil, but once one country exceeds its quota the rest will follow and the price goes tumbling down again.
            I doubt whether oil will drop as low as $10 per barrel- that would be a nightmare for the dwarf and ruin Dwarfstan PDQ. I promise I won’t cry if it DOES drop to $10, though. 🙂

          38. Avatar laker48 says:

            I can easily fathom a 20-$30 per barrel trading range persisting for a log time, what is, after adjustment for inflation, an equivalent of $5-$7.50 per barrel for the late 1980s, what brought the Soviets to a total collapse in 1991. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/01/oil-price-and-russian-politics

          39. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            Oil prices have gone down, see:


            It remains to be seen if it is limited to the current drop or continues to slide, but with Dwarfstan requiring $100+ to balance the budget even a $1 drop is not good news for the dwarf.

          40. Avatar laker48 says:

            Iran started pumping full blast and the US shale producers are back in force. The first ones will star pumping next week. The glass ceiling of the $50-$60 per barrel of WTI won’t be negotiated any time soon.

          41. Avatar anonymous says:

            There are rumors is Father bought him into those places. I do not know how intelligent he is as it is impossible to judge through the high level con.

          42. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Trump was telling lawyers, accountants, mayors, and planning officers what to do when he was 25 years old. He can’t be that dumb. Don’t expect him to read Proust, though.

          43. Avatar anonymous says:

            I worked in the software industry and I can tell you that I was told what to do by many dumb managers. I don’t know what “can’t be that dumb” means but his position provided the telling what to do, not intelligence.

          44. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Trump is as smart as he needs to be.

          45. Avatar Murf says:

            In Europe party discipline is strong and membership loose. People change parties frequently but consistently vote the party line.
            In the the U.S. party discipline is loose with members routinely brake ranks on key issues.
            The difference is once you join a party you will pretty much stay with them for your entire career.

          46. Avatar Quartermaster says:

            Russia has nothing to offer in any sort of deal. Trump isn’t going to give something for nothing.

          47. Avatar anonymous says:

            Billions is what Russia has; oil and gas money.

          48. Avatar Quartermaster says:

            You hang onto that myth if you like. Putin has burned through his reserves and is now just hanging on.

          49. Avatar laker48 says:

            He’s got less than $100 billion left to run his pigsty.

          50. Avatar Quartermaster says:

            And, that’s a pittance given what he’s trying to do.

          51. Avatar anonymous says:

            Has enough money to support military operations in East Ukraine and Syria. Has enough money to support protectorates in Georgia and Moldova. Has enough money to modernize his nuclear arsenal. A billion or two of already stolen money is chump change. Many estimates of what has been taken out of Russia approach more than a trillion dollars and some multiples of that.

          52. Avatar Quartermaster says:

            No he does not. He’s already having to cut spending, and 4 regions are already bankrupt. 100 billion is a pittance and will not last long. He has no where near enough money to anything like your list. If he keeps it up, by mid-year, he’ll be out of money entirely.

            You’re welcome to hold any fantasy you like, however.

          53. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            The Saudis also have well over a trillion stashed in the West. So what? They are still towel heads.

          54. Avatar laker48 says:

            And the Saudi population is less than 27 million, the country has a 21 century infrastructure and plans to switch to solar energy within 10 years. Saudi Arabia’s cost to deliver any crude mix, even exactly the same as the RuSSian Urals, to the nearest seaport is less than NINE AMERICAN DOLLARS PER BARREL.

            One of Saudi oil ministers once said that “the stone age didn’t end because humanity had run out of stones”. It’s too late for Fuhrer Shorty the Shirtless to learn, and he may soon be turned into Fuhrer Shorty the Sh*tless.

          55. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            The Saudis know which side their bread is buttered on. And where their investments are safe. And it isn’t in Putinland.

          56. Avatar Quartermaster says:

            Who like loose women and Scotch Whiskey. They want to be sure they can keep getting that stuff when the Wahabis make their move to cut the throats of the royal family.

          57. Avatar Murf says:

            Is that why the Reserve Fund will be drained before the year is out and $350 million taken from the Pension Fund?
            That is scheduled in the 2017 Federal budget.
            And the deficit will still be 3.5% of GDP

          58. Avatar anonymous says:

            if sanctions are removed by western democracies, Putin/Russia will not go bankrupt. The world of business will invest, load, and support the Russian criminal organization. The only thing stopping them are sanctions.

          59. Avatar Murf says:

            Now you understand the vise like grip the west has on Putin balls.
            And the west invested in Russia because of oil money. That and a desire to help the become a partner.
            Not the case anymore.

          60. Avatar laker48 says:

            “if sanctions are removed by western democracies, Putin/Russia will not go bankrupt.”

          61. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            The dwarf himself has repeatedly stated that the sanctions are irrelevant and have no effect whatsoever. If that’s the case, he won’t care how long they remain in place.
            However, sanctions or not Dwarfstan still owes HUGE amounts of money to the west. Dwarfstan’s (semi-) state companies and banks (e.g. Gazprom, Sberbank) collectively owe some $600 billion. Dwarfstan doesn’t have 600 billion. There’s also the 50 bilion Yukos fine to be paid, compensation for the huge damage Dwarfstan caused in the Donbas etc etc.
            But the REAL killer is the debt Dwarfstan owes the US- not billions, but trillions. Face it, old boy: Dwarfstan’s finished.

          62. Avatar laker48 says:

            “Has enough money to support military operations in East Ukraine and Syria.”
            The Question that remains to be answered is: “For how long?”

            US troops have actively and without any interruption participated in different military conflicts around the globe since 1941. The US military machine is well-oiled and can stay in Europe and the Middle East forever, thus containing Fuhrer Shorty the Shirtless until Dwarfstan dies a painful and shameful death.

          63. Avatar anonymous says:

            There are those that believe that a trillion or more dollars have been taken out of Russia. There are at least two books written about this. There have been investigations about that money. I did not make that up. I do believe it is true of the Russian/Putin criminal organization. Perhaps, someone here does not believe but I think most do believe this money has been stolen from the Russian people.

          64. Avatar Quartermaster says:

            The money that as taken out of Russia was stolen money and not available to the Russian State. If you wish to continue holding your fantasy, feel free.

          65. Avatar anonymous says:

            Because it is not in Russia does not mean it is not available to award Putin’s friends in the west through business dealings. You are so certain that a 100 million from a trillion dollars cannot be used to award friends. You really believe Putin has no control over that money. I am surprised.

          66. Avatar Quartermaster says:

            If you think that money left Russia for any reason other than to pad the nests of the Mafioso that run the country, then you are gravely naïve. The overwhelming majority, if not all, of the money is lost to Putin and the Russian State.

          67. Avatar anonymous says:

            You must understand that Mafioso implies organized crime; organized. Look at the Spanish reports on Russian crime organization and the involvement of Russian government officials. Obviously, there was some non-organized theft (especially early on after privatization) but the Putin era is marked by sophistication and organization of a criminal organization. I am not naive. I understand the sophistication of the Russian world wide crime network. This is not some few ex-communists grabbing and running; that was before Putin.

          68. Avatar Quartermaster says:

            You don’t understand. The Mafioso are all ex-communist apparatchiks. That’s why they were positioned to get their hands on those assets and steal the Russian people blind. It was the same for the oligarchs. The only thing that has changed since Putin got into the Kremlin is the names of the people stealing. It’s the same sort of people as before.

          69. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            The US has trillions. RuSSia is chump change in the overall scheme of things. Swiss bankers and Luxemburglars like ruSSian money, so do Marbella and Dubai real estate agents.

          70. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            And it also owes trillions to the west. Your point being?

          71. Avatar WisconsinUSA says:

            Folks, this guy here doesn’t know shit.

          72. Avatar anonymous says:

            I only go by what President Trump has stated. What has been done is Trump apologists similar to Putin apologists have used common propaganda technique of misdirection to confuse the real position of soon to be president Trump. That is what I know. Most of what Trump has stated could have been written by Putin propagandists; could have; maybe he heard it from Europe or maybe he made his own intelligent conclusions, that is what I don’t know.

          73. Avatar slavko says:

            The best that could have happened regardless of Clinton or Trump getting in, was that the Republican Party took both the House and the Senate. Now BOTH the Democrat and Republican parties will be able to control Trump. There’s bound to be more of a “mind melt” .

          74. Avatar anonymous says:

            Democrats are minority in both houses. Republicans control the presidency, both houses. This talk of a “divide” between Republicans and Trump is simple misdirection propaganda much like what Putin’s propagandists put out. As of now, there is no divide, there is only talk/propaganda.

        3. Avatar Murf says:

          Please tell which Republicans have said they will?

          1. Avatar anonymous says:

            Lindsey and McCain are touring eastern Europe at a time when a new administration will set foreign policy. A very strange time to be doing a foreign policy tour when they have not even discussed the future US policy with the future President. They may know even less than any of us and yet travel the most Putin sensitive areas spouting their assurances when they have no clue as to the President’s policy; very strange.

          2. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Trump cannot singlehandedly change US foreign policy.

          3. Avatar anonymous says:

            The Trump administration will be the US foreign policy.

          4. Avatar laker48 says:

            If it’s approved by Congress.

          5. Avatar anonymous says:

            Maybe some high school level civics class will help you to understand how foreign policy works; there is no Congressional approval required.

          6. Avatar laker48 says:

            You. an American college graduate (I suppose), should have noticed that Trump, with his charisma of a high school bully, will have to face mostly hostile Congress, not a conceited crook such as Hillary Clinton. He foisted himself down the GOP’s throat and may be confronted about his RuSSian policies sooner than we expect. He’s not a politician and he may be up for quite a few very nasty surprises and exercises in humility within less than a year from now. Mark my words!

          7. Avatar anonymous says:

            I actually hope you are correct but I am not optimistic. First, IF the Republican Party priority was to have a qualified Republican president, the party would not be were it is now. The priority was to elect any Republican; no matter who. Now, the Republicans are faced with a choice of supporting their nominated president or having the party split. If their priority was the good of the country, they would not be in that position. They will choose party over the good of the country. I hope that analysis is absolutely wrong, but I am pessimistic of the party priorities for good reason; “foisted”, “confronted”, “hostile”, “bully”, “humility”.

          8. Avatar laker48 says:

            Trump will back off or go on tangent if confronted; this is his style. He may try, though, start indirectly bullying Putin in order to save is face. I’m actually quite curious about it. Ukraine may feel the brunt, as he will likely demand tangible results of its fight against corruption, what my become a blessing in disguise for this country. We shall see a live show of an ageing bully whose ego has grossly outgrown him. We may also see serendipity in play much more often that it was the case during the last three presidential terms combined.

          9. Avatar anonymous says:

            The Putin/Trump relationship is nothing. Joint sanctions with western democracies are something. New Obama sanctions are more than US sanctions, they are a message to France and Germany (elections). What Trump does about the three sets of sanctions; Crimea, Minsk associated, and recent are what counts. None of these sanctions has anything to do with the Republican Congress. They are Obama sanctions. I predicted that Trump will normalize relations with Russia by removing all these sanctions and as has been the practice for Congress will do nothing but some loud, empty, meaningless propaganda talk. This will all be done by March.

          10. Avatar laker48 says:

            If Obama manages to have all sanctions legislated into law, Trump will not remove them, as I doubt he will manage to drum up 2/3 majorities in both the House and the Senate.
            BTW, US sanctions and their strict enforcement by the US government are more than enough, vide the BNP Paribas and ongoing Deutsche Bank cases, and the damage inflicted on BBNP Paribas due to its breach of the US Cuban, Iranian ans Sudani sanctions.

            Deutsche Bank, with its US branches closed, will go belly-up at no time. Also France’s second largest bank, Societe Generale, has its case still open in the US. If Europe lifts its RuSSian sanctions, the US will go after European headquartered multinationals listed on US exchanges, such as BP or Shell, for example. The Damoclean sword will be still dangling, even if the EU lifts its sanctions.

            Strong US hits of France and Germany’s financial institutions and large corporations operating within the US jurisdiction will cut them to size at no time. Remember, France lost close $1.8 billion due to the voiding the Mistral contract and BNP Paribas lost close to $10 billion in fines and legal costs in the US due to violating US sanctions slapped on Cuba, Iran and Sudan. Uncle Sam can be very heavy handed.

          11. Avatar anonymous says:

            Obama cannot have sanctions legislated into law. The Republicans control both houses of Congress. The Republicans have passed no sanctions law on Russia. The Republicans could have passed a sanctions law but passed only “talk” laws; nothing real, just talk. Don’t you understand that Obama did the sanctions through executive power and the responsibility of the presidential administration in foreign policy. The Republicans have done nothing. I repeat nothing. You might mention the Maginsky Act but that was bipartisan and more Obama and Democrats than Republicans. Further the Maginsky Act allows the administration to do an analysis and sanctions; it is really nothing but what could be done without.

          12. Avatar laker48 says:

            “Obama cannot have sanctions legislated into law.”
            Why not? There’s a strong, bipartisan support of sanctions against RuSSia, oly Obama didn’t ask to legislate them. If he asks, they will gladly do so. Let’s wait ad see! They still have 10 days to do so and it’ll take maximum five to have it done. I’m not implying that they’ll unconditionally do so, but they easily will if Obambler asks them.

          13. Avatar anonymous says:

            Republicans do not need to be asked anything. Republicans have passed zero, none sanctions. Republicans will not pass such laws and the proof is they could have for years and did not.

          14. Avatar laker48 says:

            They didn’t pass because nobody had asked them to do so.

          15. Avatar anonymous says:

            Republican Congress people now have to be asked by somebody to do their job. Interesting assessment of governing through somebody asking.

          16. Avatar WisconsinUSA says:

            I know very Surely that nine out of 10 national Republicans in America hate trumps guts.Nice try troll.

          17. Avatar anonymous says:

            You did mean Republican Party nominated and future President of the United States of America Donald Trump?

          18. Avatar Rafael Hernandez says:

            Rex Tillerson

          19. Avatar laker48 says:

            Link to the quote, please! RuSSia sources need not be quoted.

          20. Avatar Murf says:

            And which district or state does he represent?
            The answer would be none.
            So his voting power in the Congress is limited.

        4. Avatar WisconsinUSA says:

          Folks, I think this guy here above me who calls himself anonymous maybe a new version of the Russian troll . I live in America I am 60 years old. I know how our government works, how the political parties work, and this guy here anonpmous is trying to blow smoke up you guy’s ass . Nice try Putin

          1. Avatar anonymous says:

            Congratulations on living in the US, we are very fortunate to live in this country. I am 69 and besides some travel to Ukraine with my Ukrainian wife have lived my entire life in the US (if you count Alaska). I am not pro Putin and neither is my Ukrainian wife. There is no smoke. Not everyone here in the US understands that foreign policy is the President’s job/responsibility. Certainly, the Congress has a role in foreign policy but primarily the presidential administration decides. Can learn in high school civics class. That is the simplified version of the US political system. There is no smoke; ask any college bound graduating high school student (17 years or more).

        5. Avatar laker48 says:

          Well, after 10 months you can see how wrong you were about US
          RuSSia sanctions, and all of us were about president Trump. The US keeps whacking Dwarfstan full force with both hands and legs. The US is eying European oil and LNG markets to replace RuSSian suppliers there. The US army GIs and heavy gear keep quietly pouring into the Baltic States, Poland and Romania, and US negotiations with European oil refiners go full swing. Trump will render Dwarfstan bankrupt.

      2. Avatar laker48 says:

        Of course they won’t. The Republicans are historically anti-RuSSian and pro arms buildup, and they’re unlikely to change their stance because an outsider such as Trump wishes so. BTW, Trump vows to increase the US military budget by 20% (over $120 billion a year) is in line with GOP hawks’ policies, and this alone will his RuSSia harder than any new sanctions.

    2. Avatar laker48 says:

      Wouldn’t have held my breath if I were you.

    3. Avatar Czech Mate says:

      I think ruSSkies are beyond saving at this stage-there will be bankruptcy and hardship in the not so distant future.

      Putler and his cronies are now playing for their lives and assets, screw the muzhiks.

    4. Avatar Quartermaster says:

      Those sanctions are already biting very deeply. A fourth of the regions are bankrupt and there have been across the board spending cuts. Pensions are not being fully paid either, and the promises to Crimea have never ben kept.
      Putin is in deep Kimchi already.

      1. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

        RuSSia’s third world banking system is likely riddled with bad loans like the rest of the emerging markets. Moscow will likely have to recapitalizate the banks soon, and that will be costly. RuSSia is broke.

        1. Avatar slavko says:

          And I wonder if China is vested much in RuSSia…There’s going to be quite the ripple effect when China’s bubble bursts too.

          1. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            A possible eurozone banking crisis will also have negative effects on ruSSia’s financial state.

          2. Avatar laker48 says:

            The eurozone may fold in like a house of cards within less than a decade. The ECB is a paper tiger that cannot implement any monetary policy within it, as its whole concept is seriously flawed. It’s a joke that the ECB lends money to Greece at zero percent, for example, and the central bank of Greece lends the same money at si or seven percent seconds later. This is sick deed and a shortcut to a financial catastrophe.

          3. Avatar anonymous says:

            When I was in college(1970’s), I recall phd economists predicting the fall of the entire western economic system within a decade, 80’s it was 90’s, then 00, but it never happened but it kind of did with down cycles. Somehow the thing just keeps chugging along, getting repaired; maybe it all collapses next decade or lasts for a century. I was certain the whole thing would collapse, 80’s or 90’s but then it didn’t.

          4. Avatar laker48 says:

            So you’re a bit my senior, but still my generation. I also graduated with a mining-related, graduate degree in Poland in the 1970s and an MBA in North America in the early 1990s. I happened to spend several years working for or with US consulting engineering and construction companies in the former Soviet Union in and out between 1979 and 1981, in US Navy bases in Germany and Italy in 1982-1984, and in the Middle East and North Africa until 1989.

            I still do business in Europe and all profits I make I instantly exchange for US greenbacks. You’re smart enough to understand that the US currency is backed by the most powerful army on the globe and this, in the era of fiat currency, is the only thing that counts. I’d been with the US financial industry from 1992 until the early 2000s, before I switched to 100% my own business. I also probed RuSSia and Ukraine in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but never decided to do any business there. Too much risk and instability.

            As far as the euro is concerned, go and do your own research, as your college degree gave you the tools to do so the right way. Hint! Follow all consecutive EU eurozone member states and notice the damage the introduction of this common currency has inflicted on them! The ECB would have to have all the Fed’s tool at its disposal to carry out efficient monetary policies in the eurozone, what has never been the case since the euro’s creation; it’s a stillborn idea.

            The only EU member state profiting from the euro is Germany. but if the euro collapses, it’ll take most of the brunt. In order to survive, the EU will have to reverse to the EEC formula of national states with their own currencies connected by free trade and movement of capital and people without any attempts of creating of a kind o Euro Kolkhoz ruled from Brussels, Berlin and Strassburg. Also take notice, that last year Switzerland, one of the richest ad most stable states on the globe, withdrew its application to join the EU and the eurozone, and this is the best argument supporting my observations.

          5. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            Something will certainly have to happen in Europe. Still, taken as a whole, with all its development, Europe will still be far ahead of Putinistan. Russia needs the European market and the siloviki need Europe to launder their stolen billions, into Swiss and Liechtenstein banks and Spanish real estate.

          6. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            Peking HAS invested in Dwarfstan, though by no means as much as the dwarf hoped. And all deals have been finalised on terms extremely advantageous to Peking; see the land lease deal with Transbaikal for example. Peking leased a huge area of Transbaikal for 50 years for a pittance, $5 per hectare. What’s more, the land will be developed/exploited by CHINESE workers, not Dwarfstanians. It yet another step towards the eventual takeover of the Dwarfstanian Far East by China.

          7. Avatar slavko says:

            I was reading an article that Russia actually has a trade surplus with China. But it has been dropping. As of October 2016 almost 40%. From $10 billion to about $6.5 billion. That must hurt. So the European connection is a leverage, if Europe chooses to maintain that.

          8. Avatar Scradje says:

            As you saw slavko, I have been banned from utusa. I cannot understand it. There is no right of appeal or explanation. Focusser says it isn’t him. So it is baffling. Being banned from some horrible kremtroll-friendly site would be a badge of honour, but as I am a big supporter of utusa, it is very disagreeable to get canned by them.

          9. Avatar slavko says:

            I hear you man. Apparently a # of people have gotten banned. And not one has been insulting in any way. Focusser1 says it wasn’t him. Differences of opinion are welcomed.
            copying you too @disqus_ix4TzGA9m3:disqus

          10. Avatar Scradje says:

            Hi slavko. Pleased to inform you that focusser has explained that I was banned in error by an unknown mod. Hopefully I will now be able to resume commenting.

          11. Avatar focusser1 says:

            Hi Scradje, you are not banned now. It was an error by one of the other mods. Sorry for any inconvenience.

          12. Avatar Scradje says:

            Thank you focusser.

          13. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            George Friedman in his various books seems to think Japan will eventually take over Russia’s far east. It would not be the first time.

          14. Avatar laker48 says:

            He might be right.

          15. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            I had a look at some of the Friedman books after you mentioned them. He also seems to think China is going to collapse. We will see. The best thing would be both a demographic and economic collapse for ruSSia, so it can’t menace the world any more. Why Europe and the US put up with Putin’s nonsense is beyond me.

          16. Avatar laker48 says:

            Most people don’t realise than close to one billion Chinese live on less than $5 per day or $13 per day according to PPP vs Japan where GDP distribution is more even and where there are no pockets of poverty. China is Eurasia-oriented as well as Japan is. China is a nuclear power, but Japan is a maritime power and teams up with the world’s most powerful US Army and Navy. China is also highly dependent on its exports, very much like Germany and Japan, so we have a very fierce competition for access to cheap and immense RuSSian natural resources..

            Germany is desperate to keep its access to cheap RuSSian natural resources, and this is the main reason for Germany’s sabotaging of any deal in Ukraine that is disadvantageous to RuSSia. Germany is both afraid of RuSSia and inclined to close cooperation with it in order to make the countries between them a dumping ground for cheap and inferior to its domestic German goods manufactured with supplies of cheap RuSSian raw materials. This is the German concept of the “Mitteleuropa” conceived in 1914, right before WW1 broke out. The Yanks are aware of this policy concept and react accordingly.

          17. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            An anti-Putin consensus needs to emerge in the EU. Treat Putin like a snake.

          18. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            The flood of Middle Eastern migrants was triggered by Assad and Pedo Putolini, not the US.

          19. Avatar laker48 says:

            “The flood of Middle Eastern migrants was triggered by Assad and Pedo Putolini, not the US.”
            Well, let’s take a historical look at it! Back in 1989, then President of the European Commission Jacques Delors, a pioneer and strong advocate of the Euro Kolkhoz with a common currency, publicly said in an open text that Europe has to get rid of the US Army on its territory. I bet that some people in Washington and the Pentagon still remember that part of his speech.

            This intent became obvious to the US administrations after Germany triggered the fall and dissolution of Yugoslavia after Austria, Italy, Hungary and the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) created in 1989 the Central European Initiative or CEI also called the Quadragonale, later joined by Czechoslovakia in 1990 and Poland in 1991, thus creating the Hexagonale.

            That organisation became a grave threat to Germany’s dominant position in Europe, so it started sponsoring separatist movement in Croatia and Slovenia in the late 1980s, that led to the final decomposition of the SFRY in April of 1992 and the following civil war that ended with the 1994 military intervention of NATO and, in 2008, with the referendum in Kosovo resulting in the creation of several small states throughout the territory of the former SFRY.

            The rise of Putin’s RuSSia and the RuSSian invasion of Georgia triggered the US’s reaction that resulted in the Arab Spring startig in December 2010. Its intent was most likely the alleviation of a growing threat to Israel posed by its Arab neighbours. The situation went out of control in Egypt, and in Syria where RuSSia’s interests were deeply entrenched, albeit RuSSia didn’t have an adequate military power to intervene.

            Since Obama didn’t deliver on his airstrikes on Syrian chemical weapon depots ad manufacturing facilities, Fuhrer Putler filled the void and got a foot in the door in Syria as a mediator. The later balance of events is rather obvious. Obama’s inaction in Syria encouraged Putler to annex Crimea and wage a hybrid war in SE Ukraine.

          20. Avatar Dagwood Bumstead says:

            I don’t think so, though Dai-Nippon will take back the Kuriles and Sakhalin, stolen by Stalin in 1945. China, however, will take back on the mainland what it lost to Aleksandr II in the 19th century. Indeed, it has already started the infiltration process by sending migrant workers, legal and otherwise, across the border. As Dwarfstanians move from the Far East to European Dwarfstan in search of better opportunities, Chinese take their places. Within 10 years Peking will have created a large Chinese population “that needs plotection flom Lussian agglession”, leading to “little gleen men” crossing the border and organising a “lefelendum”. No prizes for guessing what the result of that “lefelendum” will be.

          21. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            That’s why Unkle Putin keeps his nukes. You can bet the coordinates for Beijing, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are all programmed in. The same thing stops China annexing Mongolia and its natural resources. Actually, the Chicoms have enough foreign currency to just buy what they want with long term concessions, or to make loans collateralized by resources, like what they do with Venezuela and its oil. Russia cannot even export plastic sandals so the Chinese will stay in front. Friedman’s predictions are all over the place, but for certain the Japanese have both the money and technical expertise to develop Sakhalin, which Putin cannot do without help. If the far east of RuSSia goes, it will do so as part of an overall breakup of the RF. Some charismatic local politician with popular support and the guts to stand up to a weak future regime in Moscow will hold an independence referendum. Welcome to the new Republic of Siberia! Siberia for the Siberians! The Chinese right now seem to be emigrating to Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, Canada, and the US as fast as they can wangle the required visa. Some even end up in Panama.

          22. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            China will pick up mines, timber concessions, maybe oil and gas exploration rights, on the cheap.

        2. Avatar Tin Can says:

          Do you define the term you used, “recapitalization” as government printing money and giving it to the banks, and if so, that would create further massive inflation and collapse of the rubble?

          1. Avatar zorbatheturk says:

            It might do. Venezuela is the poster boy for how bad things can get. The Putin insiders and oligarchs are OK, their money is in Swiss francs or hard assets in Russia. Factories, real estate, natural resources which are exported for hard currency. The ruble doesn’t have much backing it.

  10. Avatar Czech Mate says:

    All it takes is one spark, one little spark…

  11. Avatar laker48 says:

    Please, take notice of the main talking points scripted for RuSSian trolls littering comment boards where Ukrainian issues are discussed:

    “1. Kyiv must succumb to Kremlin demands on Donbas (constitution reform to provide “special status” for Donbas, federalization, total amnesty to participants of the conflict, elections);
    2. The EU leaders are pressing on Kyiv to succumb to those demands;
    3. Ukraine sabotages the Minsk agreements;
    4. Donbas wants to be part of Russia, and
    5. The West has abandoned Ukraine.”

    No additional explanations necessary.

  12. Avatar Vlad Pufagtinenko says:

    The sooner these vermin get rid of each other in the streets, the safer the world will be.