Putin’s plan for military base in Belarus destabilizing that country

Russian "green men" occupation force surrounding a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne, Crimea, in March 2014.

Russian "green men" occupation force surrounding a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne, Crimea, in March 2014. 

2015/09/30 • Analysis & Opinion, Belarus

Vladimir Putin’s decision to force Mensk to agree to the establishment of a Russian base in Belarus is empowering the Belarusian opposition, weakening Alyaksandr Lukashenka, and provoking spontaneous protests that threaten to destabilize Russia’s western neighbor and one of its few remaining allies.

Uladzimir Nyaklyayew, a Belarusian poet who heads the Tell the Truth! campaign and who is slated to be tried tomorrow on charges that he organized demonstrations September 10 and September 23 against the opening of a Russian base, says that Moscow’s plans are having unintended consequences in Belarus.

“This is obvious,” he says, “not only from the independent media but also from the reaction of people. And all this together is creating the opportunity for the spontaneous… protest actions against the fraudulent elections and against foreign bases, and in general against the policy of the authorities which have made the country completely dependent on Russia.”

Even Lukashenka, he says, is trying to turn away from that as a result.

Nyaklyayew says that Belarusians are becoming to understand the lack of prospects for the current regime nonetheless and to believe that protests are possible and may lead to change. Such attitudes are “broader than the authorities may have expected,” and consequently, the Lukashenka regime is using the courts to try to frighten people away.

But he suggests that those efforts will not work that that there will be another protest on October 4 against the imposition of a Russian military base in Belarus. That would be just one week ahead of the scheduled presidential elections there.

Edited by: A. N.

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  • Dagwood Bumstead

    The danger is that the demented dwarf will use any mass demonstrations against Lukashenko’s regime as an excuse to invade Belarus with “polite little green men” to “prevent a fascist Maidan putsch”. He will then hold a “referendum” about Belarus joining Dwarfstan and annexing the country. In such a scenario Luka would be out on his ear, replaced by one of the dwarf’s cronies as governor of the new Belorossiya.
    There’s hardly likely to be much serious resistance from the Belarusian army or KGB to such an invasion, riddled as they are with pro-Dwarfstan moles. At best a few brave individuals will conduct a guerrilla campaign against the occupiers, but how long will they be able to last?
    As for the west, we will hear nothing but “serious concern” from our useless spineless cucumbers who call themselves “leaders”. Frau Ribbentrop Merkel will call for talks with the dwarf which wil achieve nothing, at the same time she will oppose further sanctions against Dwarfstan. The dwarf will get away with his aggression yet again.

  • Being

    But you have seen what have happened in Georgia in Ukraine in Crimea, in DNR, in LNR in Syria now and again. You better get prepared.
    Look EU how unprepared they are knowing All that. So do not get example in EU mainly- they can only stuff speeches for ages and nothing or very silly things are done indeed.

  • Dagwood Bumstead

    There’s an article on informnapalm.org about the extent to which the top of the Belarusian armed forces and KGB are penetrated by Dwarfstan. At least some of the officials mentioned are probably pro-Dwarfstan moles, if not the majority. Unfortunately the article is only available in Russian so far, but for those who are interested it can be found at:
    https://informnapalm.org/12594-belarus-protektorat-rossyy

    Hopefully it will be translated into English soon at the very least. Until it is, those who aren’t fluent in Russian will have to make do with Google Translate or similar.