Frontline journalist: Russian attack to take place in two weeks

bilozerska

 

2015/01/21 • Op-ed

Article by: Olena Bilozerska

It has been quite some time since I have written a military-political commentary. Currently, I am at base, walking with the help of crutches, and am not able to be more active in combat.

Here are some facts:
1. Poroshenko has announced a wide-ranging mobilization, which the Verkhovna Rada has ratified, and it will definitely happen. In the small village where my parents live, for example, 36 people have received notification.

2. Putin’s soldiers, whom we refer to here as “separatists”, have become extremely active within the past few days. Their artillery now stands at 150 units per kilometer. For the first time in the entire war, an artillery bombardment now sounds like an automatic weapon.

3. Poroshenko has promised to demobilize the first wave of Ukrainian soldiers this spring.

Here are my conclusions:
1. Ukraine is obviously in no position to feed an army of the magnitute that it has intentions of training. And those soldiers who already have been mobilized would be going hungry and barefoot even now if it weren’t for the help of volunteers;
Therefore, by springtime or earlier, there are plans to commit the Ukrainian army to an all-out attack;

2. Putin will be unable to withstand such a comprehensive advance with his current conglomerate of thugs, deserters, and Ukrainian traitors, Russian anti-social misfits, Caucasus mercenaries and others, complemented by various Russian regular army professionals. They will try to defeat the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian volunteer army, but any chance at success will only come from the deployment of significant numbers of regular forces of the RF, discarding completely the charade and pretension of being “Novorossia militiamen.”

3. In other words, Putler will also be preparing to go on the attack. He will not be able to wait for spring: first, by springtime, the Russian economy will deteriorate even more than it already has; second, he will face a much larger adversary in the springtime than he currently does.

4. Such an attack will take place within two or three weeks, the amount of time he still requires for preparation.

5. Such an attack will be conducted once again under the false pretense of being fought by the “Novorossia militiamen”, though they won’t try as hard to hide the reality; they simply won’t acknowledge the truth; if he waits until spring, then it will be completely impossible to hide the truth.

6. The strategic goal of a new campaign won’t be to grab our land all the way to the Zbruch (the world community won’t allow Putler to go that far because if he did, then Poland and the Baltic countries would be next.) Rather, the goal will be to force Ukraine to make serious concessions ( removal of our army, federalization, and other items on his list).

7. We must stand our ground. Time is on our side, even if only because the population now shows significantly less sympathy for the “separatists”, and the world community is becoming increasingly more worried about how to save its own skin.

Translated by: Jeffrey Stephaniuk

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  • Mykola Potytorsky

    cargo 200 will be very busy-death to the katsap invader

  • Rods

    Worrying Situation, where Ukraine has been so weak, to date, on logistics. Surely this should be made a special priority to go hand-in-hand with the mobilization? We have seen in previous wars where a special very competent leader has been given special powers to override all vested interests to get the necessary job done. An example of this is in WWII where production was critical for the UK war effort, so that Lord Beaverbrook was made Minister of Production.

    Time is of the essence, so surely this must be implemented now.

  • W8post

    On Obama’s wish-list, for his remaining two years, supporting Yemen is more important than a stable NATO border from the Baltic countries to the south of Ukraine, even including Turkey [already a member] and Georgia and Armenia? And Lukashenko, will he be able to watch only and do nothing? Forget about those gas[prom] pipes, that’s only a pretext to ‘defend’ them. (suppositional Ukraine milking them…)

  • Brent

    A victory over an advancing Russian force is not necessary. Slowing their likely attempt at a blitzkrieg style offensive or rapid deployment and giving them as many losses as possible to make them think twice and stall is essential.

    The most likely attack point will be around Mariupol to make the land bridge to Crimea, and also a breakout from the peninsula. Russia can’t wait until the spring to advance because of the coming snow melt as that will slow them. Be ready to cut large lengths of major roads and rail lines to isolate links to Donbas. Flood the fields to make mudbogs where you can trap or slow Russian forces and then hit them with heavy artillery from the high ground. Yes, any flooding may be ice on the surface further to the interior, but if you can soften the ground, it will not support the massive weight of heavy equipment. It will bog down the advancing army. Funnel them to kill zones that can be more easily defended. Have your air force ready to throw everything at them with an end around and attack from the rear. Be willing to sacrifice your complete air power because it won’t make a difference to keep anything in reserve.

    Ask U.S. and NATO for a firm commitment for air power to any clear evidence of Russian troops. This may be the most difficult part, but appeal to the Republican Senate if Obama keeps waffling. Make it known to Putin.

    A victory is not essential. A stalemate or bogging them down is.

    • Scradje

      Good strategic advice, but it makes alarming reading. I don’t care about any losses the enemy might incur, but I am deeply concerned about the potential Ukrainian death toll and hope to God it doesn’t happen. As others have remarked, the time is now well overdue for decisive sanctions to be put in place to wreck Russia’s banking system, force them to withdraw completely from Ukraine and demonstrate once and for all that evil cannot be rewarded.

      • Brent

        I agree. I fear for how many innocent Ukrainians may die because I think Russia will mercilessly attack Ukrainian cities and populated areas with Grads to get Ukraine to acquiesce to Russian demands. All Russia is going to do is deny it anyway.

        The OSCE and HRW have gone silent with Russia’s recent stepping up of their attacks and disregarding the Minsk Accord. The U.N.? Not a peep out of Ban Ki-Moon. At least he showed up in Syria and tried to negotiate. Obama? Taking credit for giving tough speeches. EU? Too many who want to appease Putin and think he won’t be gunning for them.

        Sadly, I think Ukraine will be on her own The most damage they can do to advancing Russia forces, the better chance they have. But the reality is no one is coming to help them. Putin doesn’t care how much blood is on his hands.

        • Scradje

          You are one of the most eloquent and well informed commentators on these forums Brent. But on this one I can only hope to God that you are wrong about the collosal scale of sheer evil that putler is prepared to indulge in.

          • Brent

            Thank you. I also appreciate what you have to say, so the respect is mutual! I’ve followed Ukraine for years, and pretty much daily since Yanukovych refused to sign the EU association agreement in November of 2013. I’ve also had a chance to talk to lots of people in Ukraine over the last year, and by far the majority do not want to be part of Russia or “Russified”, and this is universal throughout the country. Admittedly more in Lugansk and Donbas do support Russia, but still no more than 20% of those I’ve talked to, and they are almost fanatical believers in Russia. Most still think of themselves as Ukrainian but they’re bombarded with Russia’s message so I can even understand why those few have bought Putin’s fiction over the reality. I still have trouble believing Russia has been so effective in spreading its propaganda outside of Russia and Ukraine and finding so many ‘useful idiots’ to carry their message, but it has far and away been the most effective part of their entire campaign.

            Some of Russia’s actions and propaganda has been down right comical too, especially with their bad attempts at the MH17 alternate versions. Some even remind me of the Monty Python “Dead Parrot” skit. I’ve been surprised as to how clumsy some of Russia’s actions have been, but even more incredulous as to what they’ve gotten away with and how much more clumsy the West’s response has been.

            What really has me worried is “Duginism”. The more I read, the more it makes my skin crawl. You may have seen some links I’ve attached to postings and that’s what I hope I can let enough people become aware of because it is downright evil, in theory and in practice. Even eliminating Putin may not stop it because followers like “Strelkov”/Girkin are bigger believers.

            Believe me, I hope I am wrong too. The last thing I want is war as there is nothing good that can come out of it. But the alternative of Russia succeeding and implementing their Eurasion Union as described in Dugin’s philosophies is even worse. People’s lives are at stake and it feels kind of helpless to not be able to do much about it. I worry Ukraine will endure more decades or centuries of dominance. That’s sad because I thought they were finally on their way to real freedom. Now I really think the longer it takes the West to wake up, the worse the end result will be, and not just for Ukraine.

            Peace be with you, and God willing, one day for Ukraine too.

          • Scradje

            Dugin’s brand of Russian supremacy is little different from naziism. It undoubtedly is a driver for the occupation forces. There is no insurgency in Donbas. It is a straightforward invasion/occupation, as per Crimea. I would say that local support for it is actually less than 20%. But, as you say, they are fervent. The ‘insurgents’ are almost all from Russia, mainly Rostov oblast. Mercenaries, not volunteers (no one ever, ever volunteers for anything in Russia). Backed up by Russian regulars and special forces. The leaders are neo-nazi thugs; murder, abduction, rape, torture, extortion and theft are a daily reality for the locals. The occupation of Crimea was expedited precisely on the Sudetenland model; even down to the phoney ‘protecting Russians’ B.S. ‘justification’. The plans had existed for at least ten years before. The real owners of Crimea. The Tatars, choose to be Ukrainian, not Russian, for obvious reasons. Now, once again they are being driven out of their homeland by the occupier. I am angry about Britain and America’s failure to meet their treaty obligations. What Ukraine needs is the kind of advanced weaponry that they can supply to prevent the invader from advancing further. Especially as it now seems clear that Russia intends to use airpower. Right now it is even unclear in whose hands Donetsk airport is. Amen to your last comment.

  • Michel Cloarec

    Brave woman ! Pride of Ukraine ! I feel your tears when you write.
    Don´t cry, the free world heart is bleeding too ! Even a peaceful person is allowed to hate when the evils are marching.

    • rifak

      The only choice Ukraine has is between sovereignty and slavery. This is akin to the 17th century when the fateful choice between Poland and Russia was made.
      Only now the choice is between Russia and the EU. DO NOT KID
      YOURSELF! The EU is the new USSR and Brussels is the new Moscow. Just
      ask former Czech president Vaclav Pavel. That image with the two
      shaking hands is not showing the other hand of the EU which carries a
      political chain and financial whip!

      • Michel Cloarec

        Oups ! You seem depressed ! Patience my brave man, tea time is coming ! Have a vodka while you wait ! But forget about your fears , so take 2 vodka drinks. It helps mot depression !

      • Michel Cloarec

        And 500 millions europeans who want to be 550 millions are wrong!
        Ennemies of Europa Union, take care ! we are coming for you !
        Don´t care about rifak, he is a bad prophete ! They killed rasputin !

        • rifak

          Don’t listen to Vaclav Havel. Listen to communist Michal Cloarec, lol!
          Ukraine doesn’t need to trade the USSR for the EU.

          • Michel Cloarec

            If all the communists were like me, the world would have been much different for the last 70 years.
            Poor communist party !
            I told you to have 2 drinks at tea time, not all the bottle, but of course as soon as your nose smell the bottle , it is too late, you don´t know how to control your thirst. Sorry to say so , but it is dangerous ! It influence the ways of thinking !

          • rifak

            If you had an argument that the EU is not the USSR (as Vaclav Havel compared) you would have offered it instead going after me – an ad hominem logical fallacy. If you cared about Ukrainian sovereignty you wouldn’t talk about the EU.
            You arguments (or lack thereof) are bankrupt non-starters and I am done wasting my time with you. Go ahead and have the last word. Make the best of it! I will be very impressed if you talk about Ukrainian INDEPENDENCE and sovereignty instead of cheer leading for the EU, or attacking me personally.

          • Michel Cloarec

            I will make it easy for you ! Answer that question : Since 1991 Ukraine is an independent country. Did Ukraine use force or weapons during that time ? If your answer is yes, then you are right ! And Ukraine is not worth to be defended !

          • richaelmivero

            I don’t see how you’ve answered rifaks question of how the EU will bring Ukraine independence or sovereignty and not just trade subjugation to Moscow for subjugation to Brussels. Your clumsy avoidance of the question makes the answer to the question obvious.

            On another note, it is a false premise that Ukraine is an independent country since 1991. Only last year with the revolution of dignity did Ukraine finally shake off its Kremlin shackles. It does not need to trade them in for EU and IMF shackles.

          • Michel Cloarec

            Join the club WE KNOW

          • Michel Cloarec

            I have never heard of a country saying that it wants to go back to URSS or Russia . EU is to stop WAR for always . EU is for peace and prosperities for all, even for russia if they wanted it. Russia has a problem with its leaders !
            Independence for Ukraine means free from URSS in 1991.
            Good enough for me, when I recall what Kremlin at any time has done to people.

          • richaelmivero

            You are quite naive in your idolization of the EU. There were just as many like you back in the day that idolized the USSR. You need to study history and/or grow up, and leave behind fantasies about

            countries that live in peace love and harmony. LOL! You’re funny!

          • Michel Cloarec

            And that country in harmony is of course russia !LOL

            Do you have any rubbles to spend ? Please help harmony ! I think they take rubles .

            Welcome to the site that provides the freshest, the truest and the fullest information about what’s really going on in Novorossia. Our team consists of enthusiastic volunteers who are eager to dedicate all their spare time to the important cause of breaking through the information blockade around Novorossia and its struggle for freedom. Unfortunately, pure enthusiasm can’t be sufficient when technical and material sides of a site are concerned. So, if you are willing to help our work with a donation, whatever small, you are most welcome to do it by the following details.

            We would also be deeply grateful if, having transferred money, you could notify us about it by email [email protected]

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            Bank details for currency transfers
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            Account to be credited 40820810752090008860
            Receiver’s name Gubarev Pavel Yuryevich

          • rifak

            You clearly hate Ukraine. Only someone who hates Ukraine’s independence mindedness and its sovereignty would want it to give that all up for the EU.
            You are the lowest form of Ukrainophobe who poses as someone who is pro-Ukraine.

          • Michel Cloarec

            And because you are a partisan of Zakharchenko and Plotnisky it makes you pride of Ukraine, when in fact you are a traitor to Ukraine in making apology of crimes.

            Only to admit that you don´t like EU. So does putin, he does not like to be the tzar of a mini empire , EU has been stealing his slaves.
            The russians do not like that they must have a visa to travel to EU countries, on top of that they must have an insurance in case of accident or sickness, russia does not cover the costs.
            If you wonder why a visa ? Well it is very simple, EU is afraid of social tourism !
            If you manage to have a visa, you must prove your means of living, and your return ticket. I would be annoyed if I had to do so.
            As european I can travel, move, work anywhere in 28 countries ! FREEDOM.
            No visa, no passport ! HARMONY !

          • richaelmivero

            You have a simple mind. You have a silly intellect that only knows black and white. Being anti-EU doesn’t mean being pro-Russia or pro-novorossia. What is wrong with being just plain pro-Ukrainian? Do you have a problem with that?

          • Michel Cloarec

            You are p…off as much as putin,lavrov,zakharchenko,plotnisky
            because Ukraine wants to belong to EU for prosperities and freedom , freedom of press, meeting, speech, freedom from kgb thugs, freedom from gulags. Moscow and Kremlin tenants are the new nationalists of our time. They want to rule over people to make them slaves and canon-fodders.

          • richaelmivero

            I love all your images. It is a window into your mentality. Did you draw these in art class?

          • Michel Cloarec

            And as Lavrov, (the liars in chief) would say “prove it “

          • Michel Cloarec

            When did European Union invaded a country ? When did EU annexed a country or part of one ? When did EU declared war to a country ?

          • Michel Cloarec

            With your philosophy, It should be natural that France reclaims QUEBEC And Russia reclaims ALASKA . BRAVO !!!!
            Since 1928 URSS has claimed that Artic belongs to Russia.
            What about Antartic, is there OIL ?

          • richaelmivero

            You are obviously a troll with no intent to engage in an honest discussion. You don’t care about Ukraine, its sovereignty or independence.

            Good day to you!

          • Michel Cloarec

            Little man , Ukraine which some missoriented people are trying to destroy, is depending on EU and IMF to get out of the turmoil created by the putin´s lovers. OK I admit we (eu) went a bit hard with the sanctions on russia. We did not think that a small sanction from EU would bring down the economy of the country of the size of russia so easy , and I regret that honest russians will suffer again as they have been doing during so long time under the rules of the prophetes of karl marx and company. But I suppose that russia can get little help from N Corea and Zimbahwe. Cuba I don´t think so ! Venezuela will knock on IMF doors soon. Putin has been there to teach them economy FSB style . What about Kiril, does he have a good wallet ? sure he has as ex-kgb thugs.

          • W8post

            “went a bit hard with the sanctions on Russia”: it is still not hard ENOUGH!! *) ” honest Russians will suffer ” : what about the honest Ukrainians suffering in the new ‘republics’ ; they can’t even take public transport anymore without risking their lives!

          • Michel Cloarec

            I know , but I was concentrating in answering the putler´s lovers. And I could not stop myself to be ironical.
            After 1276 comments in favor of Ukraine I deplore those attacks as crimes against humanity. But what to expect from those bandits.

            “Zakharshenko from his bunker ” Today on Reuters .
            Bunker, does that remain you of something ?

            (Reuters) – Pro-Russian separatists will press on with a military offensive in east Ukraine and will not initiate ceasefire talks with the Ukrainian authorities, their leader was quoted as saying on Friday.

            Alexander Zakharchenko, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in east Ukraine, made clear the rebels were in no mood to compromise after making territorial gains in recent weeks.

            “There will be no attempts to speak about a ceasefire on our part,” Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted him as saying at a meeting with students in Donetsk.

            A ceasefire between government forces and the separatists was agreed last September but has failed to take hold, with each side accusing the other of violating it and fighting increasing this month.

            “We will carry on our offensive up to the borders of the Donetsk region and if I see a threat coming from other sides it [the threat] will be eliminated,” Zakharchenko said.

            Ukrainian military spokesman Vladislav Seleznyov dismissed the remarks.

            “They’ve said before that they want to take (the cities of) Mariupol, Slaviansk and Kramatorsk. This is just another declaration – let them talk,” he said by telephone.
            SO IT IS CLEAR THAT THEY NEVER INTENTED TO RESPECT ANY CEASE-FIRE. AND TERRORISTS IS WHAT THEY ARE, AND POROSHENKO HAS BEEN TOO NICE IN RESTRAINING OFTEN TO ATTACK WHEN THEY WERE HIDING IN POPULATED AREA.

          • richaelmivero

            Don’t pretend to care about Ukraine. Donations would be more compelling. Debt slavery is not a form of help. Have you read John Perkins “Confessions of an economic hit man”? Military attack from Russia and financial assault from the EU and IMF. Looks like EU and the IMF are more like enemies than friends – no better than Russia. Silly child, I am not a fan of Russia nor Putin. Maybe your shallow mind can’t comprehend that.

            If the EU nations truly were friend they would provide military support! Got that? MILITARY SUPPORT, not debt slavery.

          • W8post

            @ri-fact, the only one who will be bankrupt will be the New USSR…

          • gulgaio

            Seen from the North of Europe – and having travel extensively in both East and West – I see no sign that EU is the new USSR. USSR was built by dictators with a foundation of control of citizens and press. The EU – still in the learning process of building a large union without drowning in administration – is based on the opposite. You do not see journalists dying here mysteriously, papers being closed or leaders portraied as adventurers or macho heros.
            If the Ukrainian people (majority) wants closer relation with EU it is their choice – and it will be a choice also towards less corruption and more openness.

          • Michel Cloarec

            Don´t worry ! soon it will the fault of the Swedes , or Norvegians or Danishs. But also the french secret service can be very popular ! Now that France has arrested 12 russians citizens for terrorism , (not related to religion)

          • rifak

            People were just as cheerful about the USSR as you are about EU. History does not repeat, my friend. It rhymes. The more obvious objectionable characteristics of the USSR you mentioned have been avoided in the EU as, over the long term, they are counterproductive. Rather, the ideological offspring of the USSR (i.e. the EU) know that financial violence is much more effective and indirect than physical. You cannot deny that almost all laws (>75%) governing the “countries” of the EU are made in Brussels. And those laws are made by the upper committee (read “soviet”) levels of the EU, not by “representatives” from individual countries. The laws and regulations are carried out by a unelected faceless bureaucracy. How is that not like the USSR? The member states are opened up to mass immigration to the point where the native cultures will disappear forever and not be recognizable – a melting pot that will dilute nationalism and reduce any and all opposition to central authority (Brussels, ie Moscow). This will occur with the elevation of one language that will supplant all others which be reduced incrementally over time to quaint regional characteristics – cute reminders of the disappearing past. English language in the EU is what Russian was in the USSR. Say goodbye to the esteem and respect that past generations had to their native language.

            Look deeper. Exercise some foresight. Delve deeper into what the current order in Europe will lead to.
            I don’t think you will like what you conclude.

        • rifak

          Don’t pretend to represent 500 million Europeans. Like a fence they had the EU built around them in secret and then they had the Maastricht treaty shoved down their throats with no opportunity to reject it. I think Ukraine should be independent and not subjugated by French communists.

          Just look at what Hollande has done to France, lol!

          • W8post

            @rifak, ask the Crimean people how it feels to get ‘something’ shoved through their throats…

          • rifak

            You must be confusing me for someone else. I am pro-Ukrainian. Just because I am not pro EU does not make me pro Russian by any stretch. Are you capable of understanding such a thing? In fact, I am quite anti-Kremlin.

            It must be embarrassing to show such a primitive knee-jerk intellectual level in public.

          • W8post

            This is how it feels by MOST Crimeans…

          • Michel Cloarec

            The fears in France, UK and more is the ultra nationalists paid by Putin to make a mess with everything to destabilize europe.
            They will disapear themselves now that russian economy is a shame, no funding, no parties . Good bye adieu !

      • W8post

        @rifak,you wrote one sentence wrong; it SHOULD read:” ask president Milos Zeman” He absolutely will agree with you. (I think he’s the ONLY one who will agree with you)

      • Czech Friend

        Who is Vaclav Pavel you Kremlinobot?

        Russia is a war criminal.

        • rifak

          Nice job! We can spend more time and energy discussing trivialities (like spelling) and less time on substantive issues. Thanks for lowering the intelligence level of the discussion to your level.

  • tkirk

    Are you saying Ukraine’s plans are to do what Georgia did in South Ossettia 2008?!?!
    It is depressing to read that at this time Ukraine cannot properly feed and supply its troops?! (and why is this the case now after all that has happened?!)
    If so what is the point of going to war?! (This is only understandable if Putin attacks first ie. Ukraine must defend itself.)
    Surely it is imperative for Ukraine to first build its armed forces?! Really what are they thinking in Kyiv?! Perhaps Azov was not wrong about first going to Kyiv and then go after Putin?!

  • Michel Cloarec

    http://www.francetvinfo.fr/france Then , MONDE then, Crise en Ukraine
    And ask Lavrov why he is a liear !

  • Murf

    This sums up my thinking on the situation.
    Ukraine only has to defend and keep their army intact.
    Russia has built up it’s forces and supplies but so has Ukraine.
    Unlike back in Augusts the UA army is in a far stronger defensive position.
    When necessary, give ground. Don’t be like Hitler and fight to the death for every inconsequential inch of land. Preserving the the troops is more important. Don’t let units get cut off and destroyed. When possible counter attack and keep them off balance.
    In May Putin will have to rotate out his conscript units.
    That will be the time to strike.
    Forget Luhansk., it’s unimportant. Quietly offer to let them stay in power in what ever status they want.
    Rapidly envelope and assault Donetsk with four Brigades plus several national Guard Battalions.
    With out Donetsk the DPR is a mute point.
    Ukrainian factories have doubled production. The Supply system is being overhauled by volunteers. The new conscripts will be better prepared and equipped. The Army has been battle tested for a year now.
    Every day the UA army gets stronger.
    Round two is about to begin.
    Round three will be the Reckoning.