It has been quite some time since I have written a military-political commentary. Currently, I am at base, walking with the help of crutches, and am not able to be more active in combat.
Here are some facts:
1. Poroshenko has announced a wide-ranging mobilization, which the Verkhovna Rada has ratified, and it will definitely happen. In the small village where my parents live, for example, 36 people have received notification.
2. Putin’s soldiers, whom we refer to here as “separatists”, have become extremely active within the past few days. Their artillery now stands at 150 units per kilometer. For the first time in the entire war, an artillery bombardment now sounds like an automatic weapon.
3. Poroshenko has promised to demobilize the first wave of Ukrainian soldiers this spring.
Here are my conclusions:
1. Ukraine is obviously in no position to feed an army of the magnitute that it has intentions of training. And those soldiers who already have been mobilized would be going hungry and barefoot even now if it weren’t for the help of volunteers;
Therefore, by springtime or earlier, there are plans to commit the Ukrainian army to an all-out attack;
2. Putin will be unable to withstand such a comprehensive advance with his current conglomerate of thugs, deserters, and Ukrainian traitors, Russian anti-social misfits, Caucasus mercenaries and others, complemented by various Russian regular army professionals. They will try to defeat the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian volunteer army, but any chance at success will only come from the deployment of significant numbers of regular forces of the RF, discarding completely the charade and pretension of being “Novorossia militiamen.”
3. In other words, Putler will also be preparing to go on the attack. He will not be able to wait for spring: first, by springtime, the Russian economy will deteriorate even more than it already has; second, he will face a much larger adversary in the springtime than he currently does.
4. Such an attack will take place within two or three weeks, the amount of time he still requires for preparation.
5. Such an attack will be conducted once again under the false pretense of being fought by the “Novorossia militiamen”, though they won’t try as hard to hide the reality; they simply won’t acknowledge the truth; if he waits until spring, then it will be completely impossible to hide the truth.
6. The strategic goal of a new campaign won’t be to grab our land all the way to the Zbruch (the world community won’t allow Putler to go that far because if he did, then Poland and the Baltic countries would be next.) Rather, the goal will be to force Ukraine to make serious concessions ( removal of our army, federalization, and other items on his list).
7. We must stand our ground. Time is on our side, even if only because the population now shows significantly less sympathy for the “separatists”, and the world community is becoming increasingly more worried about how to save its own skin.
Tags: Donbas, Op-ed, Russian invasion