“A surprise for the enemy”: Budanov says the next stage of warfare will be defined by autonomy as drone numbers hit their ceiling

Ukraine is entering a stage where “purely increasing the number of drones no longer changes the battlefield in a fundamental way,” Head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office and former intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on 23 April, warning that the next phase of warfare will be defined by artificial intelligence and autonomous systems.

His remarks come as Ukraine continues to expand its use of drone warfare and long-range strike systems while preparing for a potential transition toward more automated and AI-assisted combat platforms.

Both sides have hit the ceiling on current drone control tech

Budanov said both Ukraine and Russia have already reached the limits of current drone control methods, making further gains dependent on new approaches, according to his Telegram statement following the Kyiv Security Forum. 

“As we and the enemy have reached a certain maximum in the use of existing control technologies, the next stage is full integration of artificial intelligence,” he wrote.

He said future systems should be able to independently identify targets and adjust movement without continuous operator control, adding that such technologies are already under development in Ukraine.

“Such developments already exist on our side, and I am convinced they will very soon become a surprise for the enemy,” he said, without providing further details.

"No one in the world deals with the weak"

On diplomacy, Budanov said negotiations depend directly on conditions on the battlefield and internal cohesion. 

“No one in the world deals with the weak, and international law does not work without force,” he said.

Separately, he reiterated Ukraine’s position on peace talks. Any compromise, he said, must first and foremost serve Ukraine’s national interests.

“Red lines remain unchanged: we do not recognize any territorial losses and we will not trade our land,” he said, adding that Ukraine’s negotiating position depends on strength on the battlefield and unity at home.

Budanov also pointed to the impact of Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s energy sector, saying so-called “oil sanctions” are causing both financial losses and reputational damage, weakening Moscow’s position as an energy supplier.