ISW: Russian economy shows distress signs despite Kremlin’s strong-year-for-economy claims
As the war against Ukraine strains Russia’s economy, the Kremlin launches a campaign to project false stability despite mounting fiscal challenges.
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Russian military spending / budget
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Russian military spending / budget
War will end when Putin admits Ukraine invasion failure, says Polish FM
Sikorski says Russia's war will conclude when the Russian President recognizes the invasion as a mistake and accepts that his goals are unattainable at an acceptable cost.
Putin approves record defense spending for 2025 as EU leaders visit Kyiv to show Ukraine support
Russia commits to record military expenditure, representing 32.5% of the 2025 budget, to sustain its ongoing war in Ukraine.
Foreign Policy: Russia’s military production cannot keep pace with battlefield losses
FP analysis predicts Russia's war economy will face critical limits by late 2025, as weapon depletion outpaces production despite GDP growth.
UK intelligence: Inflation and sanctions push Russia’s economy towards increased financial strain
High interest rates constrain investment, increase debt costs and bankruptcies amid inflation and sanctions, per British intelligence.
UK intel: Russia proposes 25% defense budget increase, social cuts in 2025
The draft budget has a 16% cut in social spending, prioritizing military funding amid 9% inflation and economic challenges from excess demand, per UK intelligence.
ISW: Kremlin plans to fund crypto-mobilization efforts through 2027
Russia plans to allocate almost $1 billion for military contract payments from 2025 to 2027, indicating a continued reliance on crypto-mobilization for Ukraine war manpower.
Russia doesn’t have endless resources, its economy nearing tipping point, expert says
Russia's finite resources, strained by inflation, labor shortages, dwindling stockpiles, and sanctions, make it difficult to sustain its war effort beyond 2025-2026, as per military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen.
Resources of war: Can Russia sustain its war in Ukraine for years? (infographics)
Russia's artillery may deplete by 2025, tank reserves are sufficient until 2027, armored vehicles may degrade within 3-4 years, the financial strain growing, yet the manpower remains stable.
Russia producing three times more artillery shells than US and EU for Ukraine
Russia is producing around 250,000 artillery shells monthly or 3,000,000 a year, compared to just 1.2 million annually from the US and Europe combined for Ukraine, per CNN data.
UK intel: Russia boosts military output in 2023, will have materiel edge over Ukraine in 2024
In 2023, Russia's defense industry boosted output, employing 3.5 million workers and refurbishing existing stocks. Artillery munition production surged, but may peak in 2024 due to capacity limits, still offering a likely material advantage over Ukraine for the year, per UK intelligence.
Storage bases remain the primary source filling the Russian army’s needs — report
The report suggests Russia’s military-industrial complex showed only modest real growth in 2023, with much of so-called "production" being, in fact, the cannibalizing of systems in storage with certain limits.
UK intel: Russia may lean more on debt and taxes amid 2024 budget pressures
Russia's 2024 budget relies on optimistic 22% revenue growth to fund 26% higher expenditure, but projected oil and gas revenue gains may fall short, with government having to weigh measures like less National Wealth Fund contributions or more taxes and debt, per UK intelligence.
Ukraine’s government will cut payments to internally displaced people from war zones
Ukraine counts 4.9 people who relocated within the country due to the war. 2.5 million receive social assistance, but this year, the total spending will be reduced by 30%.
UK intel: Wartime policies magnify Russia’s chronic underinvestment in public works
Heating systems are failing across Russia, leaving residents in sub-zero distress, as years of military prioritization over infrastructure combine with wartime strains on budgets and workforces, per UK intelligence.
US Treasury: Russia’s economy under “considerable strain” due to its war in Ukraine
Russia's GDP would be more than 5% bigger if it had not invaded Ukraine as the country's defense spending surpassed one-third of its 2023 budget, US Treasury department finds.
Four objectives of Putin’s global war
Putin is convinced that Ukraine and other "historical Russian lands" can only be returned and the empire restored within the framework of a global redistribution of the world, says the head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service
Russian military footwear companies import $ 4.1 mn worth of goods from Europe – investigation
According to the Ukrainian sanctions monitoring Trap Aggressor project, major European suppliers include the Italian company Conceria Cervinia SpA ($1.7 million), the Belarusian-German company Belintertrans Germany GmbH ($900,000), and the German company Neuhaus GmbH ($700,000).
Ukraine squeezes every last drop for defense in 2024 budget, Russia still 2.5x more
Ukraine is funneling 81% of all tax income to defense in 2024, still counting on $29 bn in aid from partners as Russia boosts military spending
British intel: Russia plans to increase military spending by 68% in 2024
Russia's government is diverting more resources to the military while reducing funding for healthcare and education, and increasing financial pressures on Russian businesses.
