Russian forces are aggrandizing limited battlefield gains to pressure Ukraine and the West into surrendering Donetsk Oblast territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Despite intensified operations in recent months, ISW assesses that Russia would need several years of sustained campaigning to actually seize the entire oblast.
Kremlin’s bluff vs battlefield reality
According to the think tank, the Kremlin has been doubling down on the false narrative that Russian military progress in eastern Ukraine allegedly proves a broader victory is inevitable. ISW argues this narrative contradicts the “realities on the ground,” which show that Russia faces many obstacles in its path to seizing the rest of Donetsk Oblast. Between 15 August and 20 November, Russian forces increased their pace of advance, averaging 9.3 square kilometers per day.
Even if this tempo holds — and Ukrainian defenses and Western arms deliveries remain consistent — the seizure of Donetsk Oblast would not be completed before August 2027.
ISW underlines that the actual timeline could be even longer. The recent uptick in Russian advances was aided by fall 2025’s foggy and rainy conditions, which allowed Russia to intensify its offensives while temporarily weakening Ukraine’s drone operations. However, these weather advantages are short-lived, and the advance rate is likely to slow once conditions normalize.
Real gains remain slow and scattered
According to ISW, Russian advances during this period have notably avoided major fortified cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — key strongholds in the so-called Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt. The rate of 9.3 square kilometers per day was calculated across the entire theater, not just in Donetsk Oblast. ISW stresses that the projection of completing Donetsk’s occupation by August 2027 assumes that Russian forces would fully concentrate their current level of manpower, resources, and effort solely on this oblast — a scenario it deems unlikely.
The Russian command is expected to maintain operations across the broader frontline to retain strategic pressure and initiative. This dispersed effort makes the prospect of a dedicated Donetsk campaign even less plausible.
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Western arms may stall or reverse Russian momentum
ISW notes that continued European military aid and European-financed US weapons sales to Ukraine "could also strengthen Ukraine’s defenses, possibly reversing some Russian gains and slowing this protracted timeline even further."
