The Telegraph’s David Axe argues that Vladimir Putin’s refusal to withdraw troops from Ukraine and his decision to send poorly trained teenage conscripts to defend Kursk Oblast against a Ukrainian incursion reveals a stark shift in Russian military strategy. Conscripts were meant to serve only in non-combat roles in Russia.
However, the article contends that if the last objective was Ukraine’s intent, it has thus far failed. The Kremlin has resisted redeploying significant regular formations to Kursk, instead opting to send young conscripts with minimal training and equipment.
ISW: Kremlin propaganda justifies eastern Ukraine focus amid Kursk incursion
During the ongoing operation, Ukrainian troops have captured a few thousands of Russian POWs. For example, one of such events saw 102 Russian military captured, with most of the group being young conscripts, some reporting only days of training before deployment.
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Military observers didn’t notice large-scale redeployment from the occupied parts of Ukraine, with only limited transfers noticed, primarily from Ukraine’s south. Meanwhile, the intensity of Russian ground assault in eastern Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast does not decrease. Meanwhile, various sources reported the transfer of conscripts and preparations for such movements from multiple regions across Russia to Kursk Oblast.
The Telegraph argues that this decision marks a departure from Putin’s previous policy, which stated that conscripts would only serve in support roles within Russia. The decision to deploy conscripts in Kursk has even sparked limited protests, an uncommon event in authoritarian Russia.
“Forced to choose between the lives of unprepared young men and its ambitions for further gains in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin chose those gains,” The Telegraph wrote.
Axe speculates that the political fallout for Putin’s regime could worsen depending on the duration of the incursion and the number of conscripts lost.
Israeli analyst Yigal Levin suggests that Ukraine’s additional brigades, currently in training, could be deployed to either the Kursk direction or Donetsk, depending on where Russian forces show signs of weakness. This flexibility may enable Kyiv to launch a major offensive in 2025, rather than just another localized push, especially as more brigades and formations complete their preparation.
Related:
- ISW: Kremlin propaganda justifies eastern Ukraine focus amid Kursk incursion
- Sumy sees fewer Russian attacks from contested Kursk, more from Belgorod, data show
- Frontline report: Conflicting Russian command structures fuel friendly fire accidents in Kursk Oblast
- US reaffirms support for Ukraine’s military actions in Russia
