In its latest intelligence update, the British Defense Ministry notes that Russia likely launched its Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones from Russia’s Bryansk Oblast in its attempted February 26 attack on Kyiv. Also, it says, Russia will likely seek a resupply of the Shahed-series drones as the decrease in attack tempo “likely indicates that Russia has run down its current stock.”
The ministry tweeted:
- “On 27 February 2023, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence confirmed it had shot down 11 Shahed one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA UAVs) out of 14 launched overnight. Serhii Popko, head of Kyiv City Military Administration, reported nine of these were shot down in the vicinity of Kyiv airspace. Three additional Shahed UAVs were reportedly shot down in Chernhiv Oblast, northern Ukraine.”
- “Prior to this 26 February 2023 attack, there have not been any reports of OWA UAVs being used in Ukraine since around 15 February 2023. This decrease in OWA UAV attack tempo likely indicates that Russia has run down its current stock: it will likely seek a resupply.”
- “Due to the vector of the attack, these Shahed-UAVs were highly likely launched from the Bryansk Oblast, Russia. Previously, the only observed launch site since mid-December 2022 was from the Krasnodar region, across the Sea of Azov. A second launch site would give the Russians a different axis of attack, closer to Kyiv. This is likely to decrease time in the air over Ukraine and an attempt to further stretch Ukrainian air defences.”
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