Russian plants are overfulfilling monthly missile production quotas by 110-120% and unlikely to pause strikes, HUR says

Russia fired 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles at Ukraine in July, its highest monthly total of 2026, alongside 153 cruise missiles—second only to February, when it launched 157—the deputy head of Ukraine's Defense Ministry intelligence directorate (HUR), Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

The volume reflects a production run rather than a drawdown of reserves. Russia is meeting its monthly plans for the main missile types at 110-120%, and by 3 August had already fulfilled the full-year plan for its Tsirkon hypersonic and modernized Onyx missiles, Skibitskyi said. That output, he said, makes a lasting pause in strikes unlikely.

Launches climbed through the summer

Ballistic launches rose steadily before July's peak: 61 in April, 107 in May and 134 in June, Skibitskyi said. Attack intervals shortened from roughly one strike every 10 days to weekly, then tighter. "Everything depends on the quantity of weapons produced," he said.

Plans overfulfilled, reserves untouched

Output for individual systems ran well above target. The July plan for the Kh-101 cruise missile was met at 140%, the Kalibr at 111% and the Kh-35 at 200%, according to HUR figures. In absolute terms, Russia planned 72 Kh-101s and built 87; it planned 26 Kalibrs and built 29.

Its stockpile of 9M723 ballistic missiles for the Iskander-M stood at about 130 as of 5 August, against a monthly plan of 60—though July output reached 65, Skibitskyi said. For the RM-48U, a Mach 6 surface-to-surface missile launched from the S-400, the August plan is about 40 units on estimated reserves of 400.

"They are not really going into reserves. Right now almost everything for use comes off the assembly line," Skibitskyi said.

Newly built Kalibrs now largely go to equip Russia's new warships and submarines, he added, and Ukraine intercepts nearly 100% of the Kalibrs fired when it has the surface-to-air missiles to do so.

Kinzhal and Kh-32 output halted since April

Part of the ballistic surge came from stopping other programs. Russia suspended production of the Kinzhal and the Kh-32 in April, redirecting their propellant and components to missiles it considers more effective, Skibitskyi said. The Kh-32 had failed repeated attempts to improve its accuracy and was returned to development.

The Kinzhal has a similar problem.

"We can hardly recall a case when this missile hit the target precisely," Skibitskyi said. "For an effective missile the deviation from the target should not exceed 5-7 meters, and theirs is 30 meters and more."

A shift to jet-powered drones

Russia's August plan for strike drones—across the Geran, Gerbera and Harpia families—is 11,000 units, Skibitskyi said. Production dipped in July as plants retooled toward the turbojet Geran-4 and Geran-5, which already made up half of one recent attack and require faster interceptors to stop.

The engines remain a bottleneck. Russia depends on China for the turbojets, pays about $35,000 to $40,000 apiece, and is trying to build its own, Skibitskyi said.

Targets: defense plants, logistics and Black Sea shipping

Russia concentrates its strikes on Ukraine's defense-industrial complex—centered on Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Kharkiv—and on logistics, including railways, ports and shipping, Skibitskyi said. He described a methodical campaign against civilian vessels in the Black Sea: "This is an unprecedented situation—when civilian vessels are not simply struck but methodically finished off and destroyed, to deny us the ability to conduct trade."

Energy sites tied to ports and logistics are also targeted, he said, along with other infrastructure meant to sow panic and destabilize the country.

North Korea, Iran and a Starlink analog

North Korea has transferred 40 more KN-23 and KN-24 missiles after an initial batch of about 100, Skibitskyi said; one recent North Korean missile strayed roughly 15 kilometers from its target and killed a family. Iranian cooperation has narrowed since 2022-2023, as Russia now builds its own strike and FPV drones.

Moscow is also fielding "Rassvet," a Russian analog of Starlink, faster than planned—16 satellites reached orbit in March 2026, with a planned constellation of 292 by 2027 and 924 by 2035, Skibitskyi said. For now it works only in fragments, as each satellite passes over Ukrainian territory.

A pause looks unlikely

Russia may cut the number of missiles sent at a single target but is unlikely to stop, Skibitskyi said—the tempo will depend above all on how much it can produce. "They will be able to reduce the number of missiles flying at one target, but they are unlikely to make a pause," he said.