Russia has five scenarios for its potential offensive from north of Ukraine, says Zelenskyy

Russia may be planning offensive operations on the Chernihiv-Kyiv axis and a new wave of mobilization, Ukrainian intelligence has assessed, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Telegram post following a Supreme Commander-in-Chief headquarters meeting.

The warning came as Russia-led military exercises were underway in Belarus. Russia's defense ministry said more than 64,000 troops and 7,800 units of equipment were involved, including Strategic Missile Forces—responsible for nuclear deterrence and strikes on strategic targets—along with the Pacific and Northern Fleets.

Ukraine's multi-track response

Zelenskyy said Ukraine was preparing responses to each possible Russian course of action and that forces in the area would be increased. He said the country's task was to strengthen the state "so that none of the five Russian scenarios of war expansion through northern Ukraine works."

He said he had instructed the Foreign Ministry to prepare additional diplomatic measures regarding Belarus, which "may be used by Russia for such expansion of the war." Ukrainian intelligence services had been given corresponding non-public tasks, he added.

Ukraine is also preparing to expand the geography of what he called "long-range sanctions" against Russia, which, he said, have "already shown themselves very well" in pressing Russia to reduce its aggression.

Russia's mobilization plans

Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Russia is preparing a new wave of mobilization of 100,000 personnel, Zelenskyy said. He expressed skepticism that Russia currently had the capacity to carry it out covertly.

"We believe that as of today, such potential for hidden mobilization in Russia is absent, therefore one should expect Russian political decisions of another format, in particular such as recently regarding the Transnistrian region of Moldova," Zelenskyy said.