- Russia's ballistic missiles increasingly get through—and the war in Iran has drained the US Patriot stockpile Ukraine relies on to stop them
- Kyiv munitions firm Fire Point proposes a homemade fix: the Freya air defense missile
- Freya recycles a Soviet S-300 interceptor but depends on a German seeker, and has not been tested
On 13–14 May, Russia battered Ukraine with more than 1,500 attack drones and missiles over roughly 30 hours—one of the biggest raids in the 51 months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine. In Kyiv, a single Kh-101 cruise missile collapsed a stairwell of a nine-story apartment block. Twenty-four people died, three of them girls aged 12, 15, and 17.
Ukraine stopped most of it. In that heaviest overnight wave, on 14 May, 43 of 753 attack drones and six of 35 Kh-101 cruise missiles got past Ukrainian missiles, guns, interceptor drones and electronic warfare. Ukraine already builds effective defenses against one-way attack drones. In particular, speedy interceptor drones that cost just a few thousand dollars apiece. And Ukrainian air force warplanes have proved they can intercept cruise missiles.
The ballistic missiles are the exception. Six of 18 Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles got through, and all three Kinzhals. Against those, Ukraine has fewer than a dozen Patriot and SAMP/T batteries, and they are running out of interceptors.
The war in Iran has drained nearly half the US Patriot stockpile. The intercept rate has slipped to around 25%. Kyiv has received 600 interceptors in four years. It says it needs 2,000 a year.
Determined to fill the air defense gap with a Ukrainian-made system, Kyiv munitions firm Fire Point is proposing to transform its FP-7 ballistic missile into an air defense missile under the auspices of the Freya initiative.
Fire Point is Ukraine's most prominent munitions maker, and also its most scrutinized. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau has been investigating the company over allegations it inflated component prices and overstated drone deliveries, and over reported ownership ties to Tymur Mindich, the businessman at the center of the Operation Midas graft case. Fire Point denies the allegations, and no charges have been filed. The Freya promises that follow are the company's own.
"Despite attempts to hinder us and many distractions, our caravan is moving forward," Fire Point co-owner and chief designer Denys Shtilierman stated. "Fire Point is joining the anti-ballistic coalition."
The Freya initiative aims to take the FP-7, a 200-km range surface-to-surface missile, and tweak it for surface-to-air missions. It's much harder to hit an incoming ballistic missile than it is to strike a stationary target on the ground, but that doesn't mean Freya won't work.
The hardest version of that problem is the Kinzhal. It flies fast and lofted, and even Patriot has struggled to stop it reliably. Freya has not been shown against anything yet.
Indeed, many of the major subsystems are in place for a mostly Ukrainian-made long-range air defense system in the same class as the Patriot and SAMP/T. According to Shtilierman, the air defense FP-7 will integrate with a wide array of American- and European-made radars and command systems that are already in Ukrainian service.
That leaves the missile itself. Can Ukraine really build its own version of the Patriot?
Trending Now
Ukro-Patriot
Maybe. Fire Point wisely based the FP-7 on the tried-and-true 48N6 missile that arms Soviet-made S-300 air defense batteries. The Ukrainian air force began the wider war with dozens of active S-300 batteries, but the type has fallen out of favor as more Western air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine—and stocks of 30-year-old 48N6s and other S-300-compatible missiles have run low.
Given Ukraine's long association with the 48N6, it shouldn't be too hard for Fire Point to manufacture the basic airframe for the 7.25-m FP-7, swapping the 48N6's aluminum frame for a lighter composite frame with great maneuverability. Producing the missile's solid fuel is also within the means of Ukraine's sprawling rocket industry.
Russia killed 52 people in Ukraine this week — firing mostly ballistic missiles, hardest for air defense to stop
The big challenge may be the infrared seeker. The 48N6 follows reflections from a ground-based radar, but an effective missile interceptor should have a built-in infrared seeker. A very sensitive one.
The Freya system's seeker may be beyond the means of Ukrainian industry, but it's well within the means of German industry. Sure enough, Shtilierman mentioned that Fire Point is co-developing an infrared seeker with Germany's Diehl Defense.
Combining Western radars and command systems with Ukrainian missiles tipped with German seekers, Fire Point really could produce a long-range air defense system. A Ukro-Patriot, if you will.
The need is clear. The tech exists. Shtilierman, for one, is optimistic that the Freya system will work. "Soon, interceptor missiles will be in the skies not only over Ukraine, but over all of Europe," he wrote.
