Patriot missile systems are Ukraine's only defense against ballistic missiles, of which Russia makes 70 to 85 per month.
But Patriot ammo, already in global short supply, is quickly draining as the US and Gulf states fend off Iranian missiles.
“Patriots are the most obvious equipment where what’s happening in the Middle East is going to have a negative impact on Ukraine,” said Marc DeVore, a military scholar at St. Andrews College and adviser to the UK government.
Ukraine has survived the winter but Russia’s airstrike campaign is not slowing down. Every month, hundreds of drones and missiles attack cities, killing people and damaging vital infrastructure.
While Ukraine has multiple options to deal with drones and cruise missiles, the country has just one answer to ballistic missiles, which plummet from the sky at steep angles.
With Iran firing hundreds of missiles at multiple targets in the opening days of the latest war, Taiwan preparing for an invasion from China, Europe trying to build up its capabilities, and Ukraine dealing with Russia’s terror strikes, everyone wants to get their hands on as many Patriot munitions as possible. But the US only produces limited amounts each year.
“Patriot missile production has been a bottleneck in US capabilities,” DeVore told Euromaidan Press. “The disconnect between supply and demand does mean that the US government has quite a bit of power in deciding whom to prioritize.”
High demand, limited supply
The Patriot system has gone through several generations of missile interceptors. The ones in use today include the older PAC-2 and the more widely-fielded PAC-3 MSE.
US defense contractors can produce 550 PAC-3 MSE interceptors per year, according to the Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Estimates. The US Army is buying 224 of them, while the remaining amount is slated for foreign sales. Each missile costs about $3.8 million.
The US also produces the cheaper PAC-2 interceptors for foreign buyers, but in much smaller quantities, according to US open source analyst John Ridge.
The DoD recently signed a framework with defense giant Lockheed Martin to raise PAC-3 MSE production to 2,000 units per year over the next 6-7 years. The agreement has yet to be funded, but should slowly alleviate these issues over the next half-decade.
That does nothing for the short-term bottleneck. Current rates of production are not enough to feed both US and global demand, stoked by active wars and simmering tensions around the world, from Ukraine to Taiwan.
Germany has already run out of its own air defense missiles and can no longer transfer them directly to Ukraine from national reserves, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said on 17 February.
Now, the Gulf states are certain to clamor for more, as their stockpiles are used up to defend from Iranian missiles.
“When I was in Taiwan in December, I learned that if you were basically a normal market client purchasing Patriots today, it would take seven years to get the delivery,” DeVore said.
Ridge was even more direct, saying “there will be fewer reloads, particularly of PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE, available in US inventory for procurement by Europe on Ukraine’s behalf.”
The Patriot is not the only air defense missile with anti-ballistic capabilities. France and Italy have the SAMP/T with its Aster 30 interceptors. Indeed, more EU states are turning to this system, as Denmark chose to do in September.
However, production of Aster 30s is “comparatively tiny,” Ridge said. And the Gulf states are requesting it too.
US domestic demand
The US also needs more of these missiles for itself. Some are in reserve for the Asia-Pacific region. But US forces may also need increasing numbers for the Mediterranean and the Middle East, as they go through their Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) arsenal.
The THAAD is in many ways more advanced and capable than the Patriot. As its name suggests, it is designed to engage targets at higher altitudes. The THAAD interceptor stockpile is also quite limited.
Stimson Center fellow Kelly Grieco estimated that around June 2025, the US inventory of THAAD missiles was, at most, 434. She further estimated that the stockpile of the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3), part of the naval Aegis ballistic defense system, was around 414. Less than half of these arsenals are deployed forward.
Iran’s military is very drone and missile-focused — it was Tehran that gave Moscow the design for the Shahed drones, now being mass-produced inside Russia. Ukrainian analytical site Defense Express estimated that Iran fired roughly 400 ballistic missiles at Patriot-equipped countries in the region in the first few days.
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If the US is using THAAD interceptors at the same tempo as during the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran in June, it could run dry in a matter of weeks. If the US is firing them at double the June rate, it could run out in 9-10 days, Grieco wrote. SM-3 missiles could run out in two weeks at this tempo.
“Even a generous forward deployment could be rapidly depleted in a high-intensity conflict,” Grieco tweeted. “Sustained attacks would stress US missile defense quickly.”
The Pentagon requested only 25 THAAD interceptors in its base defense budget request for Fiscal Year 2026 and another 12 through reconciliation, for a total of 37.
If the US runs out of THAAD missiles, it might need to fall back on its Patriots, further straining their supply.
Russia's factory-to-frontline pipeline
Ukrainian military intelligence estimates that Russia now produces 60 to 70 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 10 to 15 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles per month—a combined 840 to 1,020 annually.
On top of that, Russia fires modified S-300 and S-400 air defense missiles in ground-attack roles, and has started deploying the new Izdelie-30, reported to carry an 800-kilogram warhead—300 kilograms heavier than the standard Iskander-M—with an operational range of at least 1,500 kilometers, according to Ukraine's military intelligence.
The Izdelie-30 uses a medley of foreign components, acquired thanks to porous, poorly enforced sanctions.
All of it is rolling off the line and into service almost immediately. “All the ballistic missiles targeting us were manufactured in late 2025 and early 2026, meaning we are being attacked with weapons straight from the factory,” defense ministry adviser Serhiy "Flash" Beskrestnov wrote in late February. “Iskander missiles are made up of about 90% Russian components.”
Ballistic missiles can arrive with almost no warning, especially in cities closer to the front like Kharkiv. On 2 January, two Iskanders hit a five-story apartment building. Rescuers pulled a woman and her son from the rubble. Both were dead.
Ballistic missiles have also demolished residential buildings in cities like Dnipro. One impact can bury dozens of people.
Flash said that in some cases, several Patriot interceptors are needed to take down a single target, which only deepens the problem.
“Can we expect a steady, long-term supply of anti-ballistic missiles? Probably not. Global military resources are not unlimited,” he wrote.
Other capabilities affected
While anti-ballistic weapon availability is the most directly affected in the near term, other systems may be affected as well, depending on how long the Iran war lasts.
DeVore said that laser-guided air-to-air missiles are one example. Ukraine’s F-16s have started mounting Sniper Pod passive sensors and AGR-20 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems — rockets equipped with a laser-guidance package.
Used in tandem, these systems greatly improve the pilots’ ability to hunt things like Russian cruise missiles. During a Russian missile attack in December, Ukrainian forces shot down 34 of 35 cruise missiles, "mainly" using the F-16s.
“That's a good move, but my guess is that the Middle East kicking off is going to delay” further implementation of these systems, DeVore said.
Producing anti-ballistic weapons at sufficient scale to defend against Russia is a formidable challenge, both for factories and national budgets. But every interceptor that takes flight in the Middle East is potentially one that will not protect the skies over Kharkiv.
