Pro-Russian forces are gaining momentum in Lithuania and attempting to influence the country’s defense policy. Political analyst Vytautas Bruveris told this to RBC-Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the US defense officials believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to seize all of Ukraine and ultimately restore control over parts of Europe that once belonged to the Soviet empire. Among them are three Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
He noted that after a relative lull in 2022, this segment of the political spectrum has become active again. Moreover, the party Dawn of Nemunas has entered the ruling coalition, creating a new dynamic in the country’s domestic politics.
“This is an unprecedented situation in Lithuania’s history. Openly pro-Russian, anti-Western, and anti-Ukrainian narratives have effectively been legitimized,” Bruveris said.
Opposition to military projects impacts defense infrastructure
One of the key examples of such influence is the debate over the construction of a new military training ground near Kapčiamiestis, located in the strategically important Suwalki Corridor.
It is the land link between Kaliningrad and Belarus — the most strategically sensitive part of NATO's geography.
The party opposes the project, citing environmental concerns and potential land expropriation from local residents. Blocking such initiatives directly affects the pace of strengthening the country’s defense infrastructure.
Regional vulnerability in the Baltics amid internal divisions
Bruveris also pointed to the situation in Latvia, which he described as more vulnerable to external influence. Compared to Lithuania, which is actively increasing its military presence, Latvia has fewer resources and weaker political consolidation on defense issues.
In particular, the Latgale region shows persistent skepticism toward NATO-related spending and retains sympathy for pro-Russian narratives, creating additional risks for regional security.
Earlier, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service Head Sergey Naryshkin warned that Poland and the Baltic states would be the first to suffer in the event of a war between Moscow and NATO, accusing the Alliance of escalating military activity near Russia’s borders.
