Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a televised interview with Ukraine's national telethon that Russia may be preparing a mass mobilization to launch either a renewed large-scale offensive against Ukraine or a smaller parallel attack on a Baltic state — a scenario Estonia's foreign minister and senior lawmakers have publicly rejected, ERR reports.
What Zelenskyy said
Zelenskyy argued that restrictions on access to social media and the internet inside Russia are not aimed at suppressing criticism of the authorities but at pre-empting unrest tied to a planned large-scale mobilization, including in Moscow and St. Petersburg. That mobilization, he said, would serve one of two purposes: a repeat large offensive against Ukraine, or a "plan B" — a parallel, smaller attack "where one can be limited to a smaller number of combat forces."
Pressed on why a Baltic state could be targeted, the Ukrainian president said: "Because one or another state, for example, of the Baltics, is not ready for strong confrontation. Simply because they are small, and not because they are not brave, and the Russians are brave."
Zelenskyy also questioned whether every NATO member would move to defend an attacked ally under Article 5. "I think that perhaps not all countries would want to support [the Baltics], but in my view, NATO countries have no choice — otherwise NATO will no longer exist. They must act and respond to what Putin could potentially do," he said, according to ERR.
Estonia's response
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told ERR that Ukraine has repeatedly warned since the start of the full-scale invasion that Russia could attack other countries, with the Baltic states named directly. But he said Zelenskyy's latest comments do not match Estonia's own assessment.
"Such statements, firstly, do not correspond to our intelligence data and our threat assessment. We do not see Russia concentrating its troops or preparing in any military sense to attack NATO or the Baltic states — rather the opposite. Russia is in a not very strong position on the Ukrainian front, as well as economically," Tsahkna said.
The minister added that such remarks from an ally "in no way make cooperation easier."
On Article 5, Tsahkna said US President Donald Trump's critical stance toward European allies "of course does not add strength," but argued this does not mean the alliance is incapable of responding. He said NATO would react if a member state were attacked, and noted that Estonia also maintains its own defense capability beyond the alliance.
Parliament and opposition reactions
Marko Mihkelson, chair of the Riigikogu Foreign Affairs Committee, said this was not the first time Ukraine's leadership had suggested the Baltics would be next. He said such public messaging "definitely feeds the Russian narrative" that Russia is winning and the West is retreating.
Mihkelson argued that allies should exchange warnings of this kind through direct channels rather than the media, where they risk becoming speculation. He agreed with Zelenskyy that NATO must remain united, but added a pointed caveat: "No one has undermined trust in Article 5 as much as US President Donald Trump, but the president of Ukraine is also undermining it now."
Martin Helme, leader of the opposition EKRE party, said there was nothing new in Zelenskyy's message but argued that Estonia itself had helped build the narrative Kyiv is now drawing on. He accused the ruling Reform Party of using fear of Russia as cover to raise taxes and cast domestic opponents as Kremlin sympathizers.
Helme said Zelenskyy's goal in such statements was to sustain a climate of fear that would push allies to supply more equipment, but that the tactic had exhausted itself: "Endlessly stressing people out and intimidating them no longer works to get everyone to act in a more concentrated way to prevent a military threat or plan better — it has turned into rhetorical attacks."
