Director of the IMF's European Department, Alfred Kammer, has said that the organization's forecast has been revised. The IMF has significantly downgraded its projection for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026, lowering expectations to 2%, per Texty.
The forecast was revised downward due to a change in the baseline scenario for the war's duration. It now assumes a continued active phase of the war for at least another year.
Economic outlook worsens amid prolonged war and energy strikes
According to Kammer, an additional factor behind the revision is the ongoing strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which continue to affect economic activity.
Previously, under the IMF’s new program, growth estimates had already been reduced to a range of 1.8–2.5%, and have now effectively been set at around 2%.
IMF notes Ukraine’s resilience in financial and monetary policy
At the same time, the Fund positively assesses the National Bank of Ukraine’s efforts to contain inflation under wartime conditions. It also expects the Ukrainian government to gradually increase tax revenues, which is viewed as part of a transition toward a more sustainable European-style economy.
Financial support remains a key condition for stability
The current IMF support program for Ukraine amounts to approximately $135 billion over four years. The Fund emphasizes that these resources are needed not only to cover immediate expenses but also to ensure the long-term functioning of state institutions and social services.
The IMF also references Europe’s experience during the energy crisis, when broad subsidy spending in 2022 averaged 2.5% of GDP. It argues that more effective assistance to the poorest households would be targeted, at a cost of around 0.9% of GDP, stressing the need for more focused social policy going forward.
