A scenario involving a potential Russian attack on EU countries is being seriously considered within the Alliance and is causing concern, Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee, says, according to Radio NV.
According to him, such a development is tied not so much to the war in Ukraine itself, but rather to a broader geopolitical context and China's role.
“It is not related to Ukraine — it is related to China,” Bauer said.
The scenario that greatly concerns NATO is that if China coordinates actions involving Russia and Taiwan, it would be highly beneficial for them if Russia were to attack one of the Allies.
Two-front dilemma for the US
The admiral explained that if such a scenario materializes, the US would face a difficult choice and the need to respond simultaneously in two strategic theaters — Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.
“If this happens, the US would have to choose and fight on two fronts: one in Europe and one in the Far East,” he emphasized.
According to him, this is precisely the type of scenario currently being modeled in the Alliance’s analytical assessments.
Moscow’s dependence on Beijing creates new risks
Bauer also stressed that Russia’s growing dependence on China may push Moscow toward actions that serve Beijing’s interests, even if they carry high escalation risks.
“China will not fight NATO, but Russia will. As Russia increasingly becomes a satellite of China, it will likely have to act. Otherwise Chinese support could be withdrawn,” the admiral noted.
Within NATO, this scenario is considered one of the most concerning for global security, as it links potential conflict across both the European and Asian theaters.
