Ukraine’s strikes have degraded Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to the point where it no longer projects power at sea and instead serves mainly to support ground operations, a Ukrainian defense analyst told LIGA.net.
The assessment reflects a broader shift in the balance of power in the Black Sea, where Ukraine – despite having a much smaller navy – has used drones and long-range strikes to push Russian vessels away from Crimea and limit their operational reach.
Fleet loses tools for projecting naval power
Ivan Kyrychevskyi, a military serviceman with the Raid unit and an expert at Defense Express, said sustained Ukrainian attacks have sharply limited the fleet’s operational freedom.
“Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has lost its tools for projecting power at sea and has effectively turned into a tool for supporting combat operations on land,” he said.
According to Kyrychevskyi, Russian warships are now largely confined in where they can operate, making it difficult to conduct traditional naval missions.
From the Mediterranean to a single firing position
He pointed to Ukraine’s sinking of the cruiser Moskva in April 2022, as well as more recent strikes on facilities in Novorossiysk and offshore infrastructure such as the Syvash drilling platform.
He said that while Russia previously boasted about deploying naval groupings to the Mediterranean, near Syria, and launching Kalibr cruise missiles from multiple positions, it is now largely restricted to firing sea-based missiles from a limited area near Novorossiysk.
Kyrychevskyi said it is difficult to project naval power when ships are effectively confined and unable to operate freely at sea.
Fleet still poses a threat – Ukraine adapts
At the same time, Kyrychevskyi noted the fleet still plays a defensive role by complicating Ukraine’s use of maritime drones. In response, Ukrainian forces have been experimenting with new configurations, including unmanned systems equipped with rocket launchers, machine guns, and naval mines.
He added that key elements of the fleet’s command structure have been relocated from occupied Crimea to Novorossiysk following Ukrainian strikes, including a September 2023 attack using Storm Shadow missiles on the fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol.
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