Russian forces are likely fabricating claims of a Ukrainian "counteroffensive" near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia regional borders to cover up earlier false reports about their own advances in the area, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces denied any counteroffensive, saying the frontline remains at least 10-15 km from Ternuvate, which Russian forces tried to claim they had seized.
Milbloggers construct counteroffensive narrative
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are conducting a "counteroffensive" near Sosnivka and Novooleksandrivka (both southeast of Oleksandrivka) and Nechaivka (north of Huliaipole), according to ISW's 9 February report. The milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces took advantage of foggy weather and the recent block on Russian forces' Starlink terminals in Ukraine to push forward.
Another Kremlin-affiliated milblogger said Ukrainian troops had carried out a "local counteroffensive" in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, something he described as the first such action in the area in a long time. Several other milbloggers echoed the counteroffensive claims, reporting Ukrainian armored counterattacks near a chain of settlements — Velykomykhailivka and Orestopil (east and southeast of Oleksandrivka), as well as Ternuvate, Pryluky, Zarichne, Pishchane, and Dobropillia (north of Huliaipole) — which they blamed on fog and degraded Russian communications.
According to these milbloggers, Ukrainian troops drove Russian forces from positions west of Pryluky and from Prydorozhnie, northwest of Huliaipole.
Russia filmed its “victory” in Ternuvate with drones — an hour later, Ukrainian forces wiped the group out
Ukraine denies counteroffensive, says frontline unchanged
Col. Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces, said his troops maintain control over Ternuvate. Russian troops staged a flag-raising stunt in the settlement to fabricate proof of its capture but failed, Voloshyn said. The frontline currently sits at least 10-15 km from Ternuvate, he reported.
ISW says Voloshyn denied Russian milbloggers' claims about an alleged Ukrainian "counteroffensive" at the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border. Ukrainian troops in the sector are carrying out recon and search operations targeting Russian infiltration and sabotage groups, he said. Such operations fall far short of a counteroffensive, he noted.
ISW: false reports are a systemic Russian problem
ISW said Voloshyn noted that Russian forces have been inflating their advances in the area and assessed that they are now trying to use claims of a Ukrainian counteroffensive to manage their lies. The think tank separately noted that Russian milbloggers have themselves been voicing widespread frustration over a systemic pattern of commanders filing fabricated progress reports up the chain of command.
Russian forces and subsequently some Russian milbloggers likely exaggerated their claimed recent gains in the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole directions, ISW assessed. They are now invoking a supposed Ukrainian "counteroffensive" as a pretext for quietly walking back those claimed advances to the positions Russian troops have probably held all along.
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