Russian forces likely take Siversk in eastern Ukraine after 41 months, but ISW says Kremlin exaggerates its value, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). On 21 December, the think tank reported that Russian troops likely completed the seizure of Siversk and pushed further west, but said Moscow is falsely presenting it as a sign of Ukrainian collapse.
Russian troops complete Siversk seizure and push west
ISW says Russian forces have likely seized Siversk — a town in Donetsk Oblast with a pre-invasion population of under 11,000— after 41 months of fighting. Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets reported on 21 December that Russian troops completed the capture, moved to heights west and northwest of the town, and reached the chalk quarry to the west. He also reported Russian advances north of Sviato-Pokrovske and the seizure of Fedorivka and Vasiukivka, southwest of Siversk, since mid-November 2025.
Putin and Russian defense officials have been using the Siversk seizure, first claimed by the Kremlin on 11 December, to "promote the false narrative that Ukrainian lines are collapsing and that Russian forces are capable of immediately threatening Sloviansk" — a city further west with pre-invasion population of more than 100,000.
12 kilometers in 41 months
ISW noted the extremely long time it took Russia to capture the town, which covers around 10 square kilometers. Russian forces spent 41 months advancing just 12 kilometers from Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast, to Siversk’s western administrative boundary.
The think tank said Ukrainian resistance significantly slowed the offensive. Russian troops reportedly seized Verkhnokamianske, four kilometers east of Siversk, by 9 October 2024; Bilohorivka, 10 kilometers northeast, by 23 February 2025; and Serebrianka, four kilometers northeast, by 16 August 2025. ISW observed Russian troops inside Siversk no later than 18 November 2025 and said it likely took 33 more days to fully seize the town.
Kremlin exaggerates strategic impact
ISW said the Kremlin has been exaggerating the implications of the Siversk seizure to push a false narrative that the frontline is collapsing.
"Russian forces must still advance the 30 kilometers from Siversk to Sloviansk and complete the seizure of Lyman before they can begin a direct assault on Sloviansk itself," ISW wrote, adding that "Russian gains continue to be slow and grinding as they have been for the past two years."
