Russian forces have not captured Pokrovsk, but fighting in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area remains severe, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a new assessment on Wednesday.
Pokrovsk has become the most active and costly frontline sector in recent months. Russia has concentrated forces there to break Ukrainian defenses around the key logistics hub, using heavy air strikes and armored assaults to exploit pressure on supply lines. Ukrainian officials say the area is the main focus of Russia’s current offensive in Donetsk Oblast.
ISW assesses that Russian forces “will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but will take more time and suffer more casualties to do so.”
Ukrainian units hold positions along railway
ISW noted that while Russian troops are advancing, available open-source evidence shows Ukrainian units still operating along the Donetska Railway in northwestern Pokrovsk and in parts of northwestern Myrnohrad. These positions have either been held or recently retaken, according to geolocated footage from December 9.
The think tank said Russian forces are pushing into central and western Myrnohrad and continue to pressure Ukrainian logistics.
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian troops are striking the city from multiple directions and using frequent air attacks to complicate rotations, forcing Ukrainian units to prepare each movement carefully.
Russia deploys armor despite earlier Ukrainian strikes
Russian forces are also using armored vehicles around Pokrovsk. Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Reaction Corps said elements of Russia’s 76th Airborne Division used poor weather to conduct a mechanized assault from southern to northern parts of the city. Additional footage from December 10 shows a platoon-level assault in western Pokrovsk.
According to ISW, these operations indicate that Russia has managed to move some vehicles into the area despite earlier Ukrainian strikes that disrupted mechanized activity in mid-November.
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on December 10 that Ukrainian troops remain in northern Pokrovsk, while acknowledging they had not been present there on an earlier unspecified date.
His comments suggest Ukrainian forces have regained limited ground. Syrskyi also confirmed withdrawals from Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, and Novopavlivka, south and southeast of the city.
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