Russian forces are likely to collapse the Ukrainian pocket around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast, but the impact depends on how Ukraine manages its withdrawal, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 12 November. ISW noted Russia had already denied Ukraine use of Pokrovsk as a logistics hub by July 2025. Meanwhile, Kremlin-linked milbloggers are prematurely declaring Pokrovsk’s fall, though ISW confirms Russian control over only 46% of the city.
Russian troops push into Pokrovsk as Ukraine maintains defense and logistics
ISW says Russian forces are advancing around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, supported by motorized assaults and glide bomb strikes. On 12 November, geolocated footage confirmed Russian progress in northern Pokrovsk. Moscow’s Ministry of Defense and milbloggers claimed the seizure of Sukhyi Yar and advances southwest of Rodynske, in eastern Novopidhorodne, and south of Molodetske — all near Pokrovsk.
Despite this, Ukrainian troops reportedly maintained or even regained positions in northern Pokrovsk and in the Zakhidnyi Microraion of central Myrnohrad. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps reported Russia launched a multi-day assault on Pokrovsk using light vehicles along the M-30 highway. The unit confirmed Russia had established firing positions in several parts of Pokrovsk, but added that Ukrainian forces still controlled supply lines to the city.
- Map: ISW.
A spokesperson for a Ukrainian drone battalion operating in Myrnohrad also said Ukrainian units continued receiving supplies there. Russian sources, meanwhile, acknowledged a Ukrainian counterattack near Rodynske, though they claimed the settlement remained in Russian hands.
ISW questions significance of Russian advances
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the strategic impact of Russia’s possible seizure of Pokrovsk hinges on how Ukraine withdraws — whether in an orderly fashion or under pressure. The think tank said Russian control of Pokrovsk as a logistics hub was already effectively achieved in July 2025.
Kremlin-linked sources exaggerate battlefield control
Russian milbloggers, many linked to the Kremlin, are mounting an aggressive information campaign claiming Pokrovsk is nearly or fully seized. One blogger said Russian troops gained "firm control" of the city by using heavy fog to advance, referencing footage of Russian soldiers entering Pokrovsk on motorcycles. Others declared that most of Myrnohrad is now a contested "gray zone."
Multiple milbloggers also circulated AI-generated videos allegedly showing mass Ukrainian surrenders in Myrnohrad. However, these were debunked by Ukraine’s General Staff and even by some Russian bloggers themselves. One milblogger even claimed Ukraine had shared the fake footage to discredit real videos from the front — while still insisting Russia held more ground than available evidence supports.
