Russo-Ukrainian war, day 1231: Trump reverses Ukraine weapons pause as Russian attacks surge 1.6 times

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Russian oil flows through Hungary unchecked—investigation traces deals to PM Orbán's closest allies. Russian crude keeps pouring into the EU pipeline, enriching figures tied to both Putin and Orbán.

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Trump flips on Ukraine weapons cutoff: "We have to help them". The Pentagon confirmed the move within hours, saying it is to "ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves."

Ukraine is firing Patriot missiles as fast as it gets them—that's how more Russian missiles get through. The Ukrainian air force is running desperately low on its best air-defenses, the kind that shoot down ballistic missiles.

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Military

Syrskyi: Ukrainian "Deep Strike" drone missions in June reached 115 missions. Ukraine's long-range drone campaign continues to put pressure on Russia's war infrastructure. Russian attacks surged by 1.6 times in June—Ukraine answers with 115 fire missions and 2,864 targets destroyed. With new technologies and alternative arms routes, Ukraine continues its a summer battle. North Korea triples its military deployment for Russia's war—Forbes says it exposes Moscow's weakness. Pyongyang sends up to 30,000 more troops as part of a deepening alliance, despite prior battlefield losses. ISW: Russia halts Kostiantynivka push—now Pokrovsk braces for encirclement threat. After weeks of stalled operations in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces are closing in on Pokrovsk from several axes. Massive radar gap in Crimea creates Ukrainian drone corridor, expert says. The western part of Russian-occupied peninsula has been uncovered after Ukraine has recently destroyed Russia's radar stations at Cape Tarhankut. Shahed drone strike wounds civilian in Mykolaiv as Russia might be saving drones for something bigger. The lull in Russian drone numbers in last night's assault could signal a larger wave of attacks coming.

Intelligence and technology

China helped build the drones now hitting Ukraine—Bloomberg traces the parts. Despite denials, Chinese engineers and hardware are inside Russian weapons used across the frontline. Trump sends just ten Patriot missiles to Kyiv, while Ukraine needs hundreds, and other weapons remain in limbo. Ten Patriots are expected to arrive but Ukraine's cities need hundreds. UK sanctions Russian generals and military lab for chemical warfare in Ukraine. Britain targets top defense figures and a research institute accused of supplying banned toxic weapons.

International

EU plans to continue aid for Kyiv in 2027. Denmark's Minister of Economy Stefanie Lose confirmed that support for Ukraine will extend past 2026, with the EU actively discussing long-term financial aid amid ongoing challenges posed by Russian aggression. Top Kremlin mouthpiece says Putin treats Trump's Kyiv arms shift with indifference, calls to seize more Ukrainian territories. He also called the territory of Ukraine as Russian. Europe's red line to China: Stop fueling Putin's war machine or face policy reversal, Von der Leyen warns. Ursula von der Leyen says Beijing's backing of Russia is increasing instability in Europe. Europe urgently searches $19 billion for Kyiv as America sends only drops of aid to Ukraine despite Russia's terror escalation. Trump's aid freeze pushes Kyiv toward financial ruin, with Brussels scrambling to stabilize the front. WSJ: Trump blames Pentagon, not himself, for Ukraine weapons pause. Zelenskyy was told directly by Trump that he didn't order the hold on arms shipments, which has now been lifted. Kremlin tells Hungary: Act with us in Ukraine — for the "compatriots". Russian FM Lavrov proposes "uniting efforts" over minorities — the same pretext used for full-scale invasion.

Humanitarian and social impact

HUR: West still has not sanctioned 70 Russian companies behind production of missiles that struck Kyiv's largest children's cancer hospital year ago. Ukraine calls the world not to look away and punish Russian for its crimes. Ukraine's Intelligence identifies Russian officer responsible cruise missle terror against Kyiv's top oncology center with 600 children inside. A year ago, Moscow performed civility in front of the Indian prime minister, but behind the scenes, launched a wave of terror, mirroring negotiations with US President Donald Trump.

Political and legal developments

ICC issues arrest warrants for Taliban leaders for crimes against women after Russia becomes only country in world to recognize their regime. In 2023, the ICC also charged Russian President Vladimir Putin with war crimes related to the forced deportation of Ukrainian children. Russia declares Yale University "undesirable" after it tracked 30,000 stolen Ukrainian children. The Kremlin accused Yale of undermining Russia's integrity after its lab supported Kyiv's efforts to repatriate abducted children. Read our earlier daily review here.