Putin’s aide warns NATO’s “war games” near Kaliningrad could trigger response while Russia stages its largest military buildup since invasion of Ukraine

While Patrushev alleges NATO plots against Russian territory, Belarus quietly prepares to host an exercise mirroring the exact scale and pattern of Russia’s pre-Ukraine invasion deployments.
Russian airborne forces participate in Zapad 2021 exercise in Kaliningrad (Source: Joint Forces)
Russian airborne forces participate in Zapad 2021 exercise in Kaliningrad (Source: Joint Forces).
Putin’s aide warns NATO’s “war games” near Kaliningrad could trigger response while Russia stages its largest military buildup since invasion of Ukraine

Nikolai Patrushev, aide to the Russian president and head of the Maritime Board, has accused NATO of rehearsing the seizure of Russia’s Kaliningrad region, The Moscow Times reports. 

There are growing concerns among Western analysts and policymakers that Russia could use Kaliningrad as a staging ground for limited military operations or hybrid attacks against NATO, such as cyber operations, missile launches, or incursions into the Suwałki Gap, to test the Alliance’s unity and the credibility of Article 5, which guarantees collective defense.

His claims come amid Russia’s and Belarus’ plans to hold joint military exercises, Zapad-2025, on Belarusian territory in September 2025. NATO, and particularly the Baltic states, since Belarus borders both Lithuania and Latvia, are closely monitoring the situation, viewing Belarus as a potential staging ground for a Russian assault on the Baltic States or Poland, per Current Time.

Around 100,000 troops are expected to take part in the exercises, eight times more than initially announced by the Belarusian government at the beginning of 2025. In addition, the scenario and scale of Zapad-2025 essentially mirror the exercises under which Russia amassed troops and equipment near the Ukrainian border in the winter of 2022, preparing for a full-scale invasion. This suggests that Russia may once again use Belarus as a platform for further offensive actions.

Meanwhile, NATO is conducting frequent and increasingly large-scale military exercises in the Baltic Sea region and along the borders near Kaliningrad, directly addressing the potential for conflict in and around this Russian exclave. 

For instance, in 2024, the Alliance held its most extensive exercises in the region against Russia’s threat, involving up to 9,000 personnel from 20 nations. 

“For the second consecutive year, NATO has been holding its largest military drills in decades near our borders, rehearsing scenarios involving the capture of the Kaliningrad region, the blockade of maritime routes in the Baltic and Black Seas, and preemptive strikes on the permanent bases of Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces,” says Patrushev. 

He further alleges that NATO forces are training for offensive operations spanning from Vilnius to Odesa.

Patrushev has also stated that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte directly threaten Russia’s security. He accuses the UK of seeking to expand its influence in the Black Sea region, claiming that London has already created a “mine countermeasures coalition” and now aims to escort commercial vessels with its navy.

Patrushev has warned that Russia would respond “adequately and proportionally” to actions by the UK and several EU states concerning the Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions.

“If diplomatic or legal tools prove ineffective, our navy will be ready to ensure the security of Russian shipping. The hotheads in London and Brussels need to understand this clearly,” he says.

Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged European allies to take part in discussions on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, warning of serious consequences for NATO if Moscow is not stopped or if the US withdraws from NATO.

He stated that Russia plans to deploy 150,000 troops to Belarus, potentially for an attack on NATO. He noted that Belarus, which borders three NATO countries, has become a staging ground for Russian military operations.

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