There are “strong indications” that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin is mobilizing forces for an attack on NATO, says René Obermann, a leading German military industrialist, according to 19fortyfive.
Putin understands that time is not on his side, and he is not inclined to wait and give Europe enough time to ramp up its defense production capabilities. Moreover, it is in his interest to act as quickly as possible before Russia’s economy collapses.
Putin has a reputation for always seeking out and exploiting his opponents’ vulnerabilities. According to Obermann, the Russian ruler now perceives NATO’s weakness and sees the current situation in Europe as a window of opportunity amid US President Donald Trump’s isolation policy.
At the same time, Putin has transformed Russia into a country fully engaged in a war economy, creating a precarious balance with crippling interest rates that threaten Russia’s long-term ability to sustain its military-industrial complex.
Obermann believes the Russian president comprehends that he must act as quickly as possible before the house of cards that is his financial position collapses.
Putin’s move would involve attacking through the strategically important Suwałki Corridor, which connects Russia’s Kaliningrad with Belarus. He suggests that Putin’s justification and “game plan” for seizing this corridor would be an exact replica of the 2014 invasion of Crimea.
Given the tensions between the US and its European allies, Moscow may decide that there is an opportunity to seize this land bridge and end Kaliningrad’s geographic isolation. This would violate the sovereignty of Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland, all NATO members. If NATO fails to respond to such a Russian invasion, Putin could destroy what remains of the Alliance’s credibility.
However, Putin would risk his reputation if he pushed the war to its conclusion, as making peace with the US and NATO could trigger an uprising in Russia.
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