Russia has outlined 15 potential military conflict scenarios by 2045, six of which involve Northern Europe, says Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR), Ukrinform reports.
“Six of these scenarios concern Northern Europe. The Baltic states understand this. Poland understands it as well—there are four possible conflict scenarios involving Poland alone. Poland now recognizes this as a direct threat,” emphasizes Skibitskyi.
He explains that Russia fully grasps its role in the modern world and its position in the global power structure. Previously, Russian analysts forecasted scenarios for 2026-2035 with a long-term outlook to 2045, identifying four key global trajectories:
- Absolute US leadership
- The rising influence of China
- A multipolar world where Russia plays the role of a leader
- Regionalization, where global power is divided into distinct spheres
“In its strategic planning, Russia explicitly states that the ‘Ukrainian issue’ must be resolved by 2026. Their projections suggest that if the war drags on for another 5-10 years, Russia will never catch up to the US and China—it will remain a regional power confined to Eastern Europe,” Skibitskyi explains.
He adds that Russian aggression against Ukraine did not begin in 2014 but dates back to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“We all remember Crimea, Tuzla, and other issues. Ukraine’s role in shaping new approaches to European security is, without a doubt, invaluable,” he concludes.
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