The latest statements from US President Donald Trump’s team, calling for a ceasefire without security guarantees and immediate elections, indicate that events are unfolding in the worst-case scenario for Ukraine. If Ukraine rejects this plan, Trump may reduce or halt military aid. He could also unilaterally lift sanctions on Russia. Another lever of influence is Starlink, a key battlefield communication system in Ukraine, which Trump could order to be shut down, according to The Economist.
Previously, Zelenskyy refused to sign a US agreement on resource transfers worth $500 billion, stating that Ukraine had received only $98.5 billion from the US since 2022. The agreement also lacked security guarantees or assurances of further military aid, alongside other unfavorable terms. The French newspaper Le Monde compared the deal to “racketeering.”
Zelenskyy’s decision to reject the deal, his criticism of Ukraine’s exclusion from official US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, and his refusal to hold elections without security guarantees—likely to prevent the installation of a pro-Russian puppet—triggered a series of statements from Trump. He claimed that Ukraine needs to hold elections because Zelenskyy’s approval rating is only 4%, contradicting the latest official surveys, which show that 57% of Ukrainians support him.
Zelenskyy responded, stating that Trump lives in a Russian-made “disinformation bubble.” Following this, pressure on Ukraine intensified. US Vice President J.D. Vance warned Zelenskyy against “badmouthing” Trump in public after the Ukrainian president refuted Trump’s false claims. Trump’s approach has sparked widespread criticism from European and American politicians, officials, and non-government organizations.
Trump’s decision to seek direct talks with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and his desire to rehabilitate the Kremlin has shocked many politicians in Ukraine. However, as one deputy from Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party told the media, “but we were expecting it.”
Despite Trump’s statements, the report says “nothing resembling a deal” exists yet, and many developments are playing out in the worst possible way for Ukraine.
Members of Ukraine’s political elite fear that Trump’s calls for a ceasefire without security guarantees and immediate elections amount to a “Russian trap.”
As for the demand to hold elections, one former diplomat noted that Trump may not care about elections but rather about removing Zelenskyy, whom he never liked and views as a difficult leader.
Meanwhile, even if Ukraine emerges from the war, it will face a struggle for survival—its people, politicians, and military are exhausted, with hundreds of thousands killed or wounded.
“Millions have left the country. Perhaps a third of the 4.3m Ukrainians who fled to Europe are under 18; many of them will never return. A deal without long-term security will push more parents to send their children abroad, exacerbating Ukraine’s already pronounced demographic malaise,” reads the report.
The journalists conclude that Trump’s policies are unlikely to bring quick peace but rather an unacceptable proposal for Ukraine, leaving Zelenskyy with limited room for negotiation.
Related:
- Reality check: Zelenskyy’s approval is 54%, not 4% as Trump claims—and it still beats Trump’s
- Western nations condemn Russian elections in occupied Ukraine as illegitimate
- Zelenskyy refutes Trump’s $ 500 billion aid claim, says Ukraine received $ 98.5 billion from US
