UK intel: Ukraine constrains Russian Navy, but Black Sea Fleet maintains strike power

The situation in the Black Sea demonstrates how Ukraine’s strategy has reshaped but not eliminated the maritime threat, as Russian forces adapt their tactics under pressure.
A Ukrainian serviceman on a vessel, illustrative image. Photo via Eastnews.ua.
A Ukrainian serviceman on a vessel, illustrative image. Photo via Eastnews.ua.
UK intel: Ukraine constrains Russian Navy, but Black Sea Fleet maintains strike power

The overall tempo of maritime operations in the Black Sea remains low. Ukraine continues to be successful in restricting Russian maritime operations to the eastern Black Sea.

Despite Ukraine’s continued success in constraining Russian naval operations and threatening Black Sea Fleet infrastructure, Russia maintains a significant strike capability from the eastern Black Sea. This complex dynamic shows how Ukraine’s aggressive naval strategy has reshaped but not eliminated the maritime threat, while Russian forces have adapted their tactics.

As reported by the British Ministry of Defense, the Russian Federation Navy’s perception of the threat of attack from Ukraine is evident through their frequent dispersal training and anti-Uncrewed Surface Vessel/Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle exercises in and around Novorossiysk.

Ukraine continues to undermine the credibility of the Russian Black Sea Fleet by seeking to target naval infrastructure and vessels in the Black Sea.

However, this has not nullified the danger of attacks from the Black Sea entirely. British military analysts also note that the massed missile attack on 28 November 2024 targeting critical national infrastructure in several oblasts of Ukraine included launches from Russian vessels operating in the Black Sea.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported 28 land-attack cruise missiles were fired, and that their air-defense system was able to intercept a high percentage of incoming weapons systems fired from both Russian vessels and Russian long range aviation.

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