The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 18 August that Russian forces are likely preparing for a counteroffensive in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, necessitating additional troop deployments and resources.
This assessment comes as Ukraine’s incursion into the region continues to force Russia to redeploy forces from other areas of the conflict.
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), a source familiar with the Ukrainian operation reported that Russia had redeployed “several” understrength brigades totaling 5,000 personnel to Kursk Oblast from elsewhere in Ukraine by mid-August. The source indicated that one of these brigades came from Donetsk Oblast, possibly referring to elements of the Donetsk People’s Republic Pyatnashka Brigade.
The ISW has observed the arrival of various Russian units in Kursk Oblast, including elements of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the Tigr Battalion of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.
“Russian forces have redeployed additional forces to Kursk Oblast since the first week of the Ukrainian incursion and have likely redeployed more than 5,000 personnel to Kursk Oblast overall,” the ISW reports.
While these redeployments have helped slow Ukrainian advances, the ISW suggests this is only the beginning of Russia’s response.
According to the ISW, Russian forces will likely launch a concerted counteroffensive effort to retake territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized. However, it is too early to assess when Russian forces will stop Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast completely and seize the battlefield initiative to launch such an effort.
The WSJ’s source estimates that Russian forces may need up to 20,000 personnel to retake territory in the area, significantly more than the estimated 6,000 Ukrainian personnel currently in Kursk Oblast. However, the ISW notes that the requirements will depend on how strongly Ukrainian forces defend their positions within Russia.
The ISW concludes that this potential Russian counteroffensive “will likely require Russia to commit even more manpower, equipment, and materiel to Kursk Oblast.”
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