Russia has been estimating Ukraine’s human resources to have an understanding of how long Kyiv can defend its territories in the war, said Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), at a closed meeting at the Kyiv School of Economics, Forbes reports.
According to Budanov, some Ukrainians are scared to enlist in the armed forces because they have not been fully informed that serving in the Ukrainian army is not a sentence but an honor and an opportunity.
“Yes, it is a duty, a routine, a risk, but at the same time, it is true freedom – defending your state, serving your nation. It is a contribution to both your own and the collective free future. The alternative to this is Russian slavery,” he said.
At the same time, the chief of Ukraine’s intelligence agency recognized that mistakes have been made in “communication with society.”
If Ukraine mobilizes all men aged over 18 years, the country can fight until 2033. If the state lowers the threshold to 16 years (a scenario also considered by Russia), then until 2044, said Budanov.
“These are just Russian calculations. In contrast to the enemy, Ukraine values the lives of its citizens. And it’s unlikely that anyone could fight until 2044, not only until 2060. The economic issue is a primary factor here—no economy can withstand such a long time in a state of war. But if Ukraine is mostly spending not only its own funds on the war, Russia is using its own, and the enemy understands this clearly as well,” Ukraine’s Intelligence chief said.
An updated mobilization law came into effect in Ukraine on 18 May. Therefore, all conscripted men and women aged 18-60 had to update their registration data in local conscription offices within 60 days, by 16 July.
Experts say that if Ukraine cannot quickly solve the mobilization problem, the risk of a Russian breakthrough in the second half of 2024 will significantly increase.
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