The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 14 July that Russia may have committed under-equipped units initially intended as operational reserves to combat operations in Ukraine.
According to the ISW, this decision could be due to constraints on Russia’s defense industrial base or efforts to reinforce ongoing assaults.
According to Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, the Russian military command had planned to form the 27th Motorized Rifle Division as an operational reserve for the Central Grouping of Forces. However, Mashovets said that this division’s 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment was deployed “to the area northwest of Avdiivka before fully restoring its combat capability.”
Mashovets adds that two other regiments, the 506th and 589th, were sent to the Toretsk direction “ahead of schedule before the units reached their ‘planned terms.'” He had previously reported in March 2024 that the Russian military command only intended to equip these units with up to 87 percent of their required weapons and equipment.
The ISW notes that it first observed reports of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division operating near Avdiivka in April 2024 and near Toretsk in early July 2024.
The think tank suggests that Mashovets’ 14 July observation “may suggest that the Russian military command fell behind the intended staffing and armament schedule and failed to equip these units up to the target 87 percent mark.”
The report also references a previous ISW assessment that Russia’s ongoing force generation efforts are creating a marginal number of additional forces not immediately committed to the front. However, the ISW had concluded that “the Russian DIB is unlikely able to fully support Russia’s reserve manpower.”
The ISW suggests that an alternative explanation for the early deployment could be to “reinforce Russian forces’ ongoing grinding assaults in eastern Ukraine.”
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