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Russo-Ukrainian war, day 782: The UK avoids downing Russian drones in Ukraine over escalation fears, despite downing Iranian drones targeting Israel.

While Russia has swiftly repaired oil refineries targeted by Ukrainian drones, reducing idled capacity, the UK remains cautious about downing Russian drones in Ukraine over escalation fears.
Russo-Ukrainian war, day 782: The UK avoids downing Russian drones in Ukraine over escalation fears, despite downing Iranian drones targeting Israel.

Exclusive

From exporter to importer overnight: Russian missiles knock out Ukraine’s power grid amid weakened air defense. Boosting air defense has become Ukraine’s number-one priority: rebuilding destroyed power plants is a Sisyphean task when they will be destroyed in the next wave of Russian attacks

Military

Frontline report: Russian survival rate at 3% during White Mountain storming near Luhansk’s Bilohorivka. Russian forces face steep losses and strategic setbacks during assaults on White Mountain near Luhansk’s Bilohorivka, struggling against well-positioned Ukrainian defenses.

Zelenskyy says Ukraine will respond to Russian offensive in spring, summer. “We must be prepared for all possible formats of Russian hostile actions,” Zelenskyy stated. “We will respond.”

ISW: Russian military commanders dismissed for failing to undo Ukraine’s 2023 gains. Russian MoD reportedly fired the commander of the 18th Army, Lieutenant Gen. Arkady Marzoev and the commander of the 70th Regiment, for their failure to retake the territories around Kherson’s Krynky and Zaporizhzhia’s Robotyne that Ukraine reclaimed during the 2023 counteroffensive.

Defense Minister: Russians concentrate forces for breakthrough west of Bakhmut. Despite “Russian numerical superiority,” Ukraine’s defenders disrupting Russian plans, Defense Minister Umerov said.

UK’s Cameron says UK doesn’t down Russia drones in Ukraine, fearing escalation. After UK Air Force downed Iranian drones targeting Israel, UK Foreign Secretary says avoiding RAF engagement with Russia’s drones in Ukraine allegedly prevents conflict escalation.

As of 15 Apr 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

      • Personnel: 454420 (+770)
      • Tanks: 7180 (+6)
      • APV: 13796 (+31)
      • Artillery systems: 11593 (+41)
      • MLRS: 1046
      • Anti-aircraft systems: 758
      • Aircraft: 347
      • Helicopters: 325
      • UAV: 9266 (+31)
      • Cruise missiles : 2092 (+3)
      • Warships/boats: 26
      • Submarines: 1
      • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 15510 (+51)

Intelligence and technology

Reuters: Russia restoring oil refining capacity idled by Ukrainian drones. Russia has swiftly repaired critical oil refineries targeted by Ukrainian drones, reducing idled capacity to about 10% from nearly 14% at the end of March, according to Reuters calculations.

ISW says Ukrainian air defense depleted due to delayed US military aid. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has compared Ukraine’s depleted air defense systems with Israel’s robust air defense umbrella that successfully defended against a large-scale Iranian missile and drone attack on 13 April

Estonia General Staff: Russia uses “amoeba tactics” to exploit openings in Ukrainian defenses. Russian military employs “amoeba tactics” in Ukraine, spreading forces thinly, aiming for opportunistic gains, Estonian Maj-Gen Enno Mõts explains, adding that Russia’s air attacks aim to strain Western support by escalating reconstruction costs.

UK intel: Russia’s recruitment drive targets migrant workers to bypass domestic mobilization. Facing high casualties in Ukraine and reluctant to further mobilize its citizens, Russia is recruiting migrant workers with financial incentives to boost troop levels without triggering unpopular

International

Netherlands to provide $4.7 bn in aid to Ukraine until 2026. The financial aid will be allocated for military and humanitarian support Ukraine with $4.7 bn in military and humanitarian aid over the next 3 years.

US Senate Majority Leader Schumer: Biden, Congress agree on Israel, Ukraine aid. House may vote this week on military aid for Israel in response to Iran attack, unclear if combined with Ukraine support. House Intel Chair Republican Mike Turner expects Ukraine aid vote & passage.

Foreign Minister: Poland capable of covering western regions of Ukraine with Patriot system. “If you want to lease [Patriots], let’s lease, if you want it to cover your border, let it cover your border, but give it,” Kuleba says. Ukraine knows location of over 100 available Patriot systems allies have & seeks to obtain at least 7 Patriot batteries

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian forces shelled Sumy Oblast 19 times, one person dead. Due to shelling from Russian armed forces a person was killed in the Sumy oblast in the northeast of Ukraine, with Russian troops firing 19 times on the region on Sunday.

SBU detains ex-postal worker for collaborating with Russians during occupation of Izium. A former postal worker headed a pro-Russian “post office” during the occupation of Izium; she faces up to 12 years in prison for distributing propaganda through the postal service.

Read our earlier dayli review here:

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