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Estonian intel: Russia unlikely to achieve operational breakthrough in Ukraine in coming weeks

The city of Avdiivka. Credit: Slovo and Dilo

Fighting on the ground in Ukraine is expected to subside due to weather conditions, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, according to ERR.

“Increased rainfall, combined with temperatures continuing to be above zero, make the ground muddy and difficult for machinery to negotiate.

Rain showers and low cloud cover also discourage the use of air assets, especially drones,” the colonel revealed at the Estonian Ministry of Defense’s weekly briefing.

However, despite the rains and cold, the number of Russian attacks has increased on the Avdiivka front. Russia sees the eastern city of Avdiivka as a buffer zone, including railways and logistics routes, that protects Donetsk from Ukrainian soldiers, Kiviselg added.

The intensity of the current offensive activity in the direction of Avdiivka indicates that one of the objectives of a possible deployment is to break the Ukrainians’ fighting spirit, the intelligence chief said.

In addition, Ukrainian forces have been able to hold on to the areas they have re-captured, especially on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River in the southern area of the front.

Ukraine’s two main objectives in the area are to gain control of the left bank of the Dnipro and to push Russian units southwards to spare the city of Kherson from Russian fire, Kiviselg informed.

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