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ISW: Russia captured 4 square km around Avdiivka, lost dozen of vehicles

Russian forces are attempting to create “a cauldron” around Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka, but acknowledged that are unlikely to immediately cut off Ukrainian forces in the city.
Credit: ISW
ISW: Russia captured 4 square km around Avdiivka, lost dozen of vehicles

Russian forces have captured around 4 square kilometers of territory from different directions around the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka since 10 October, ISW reported in its daily report.

The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, estimates that Russian troops are now within 3-5 kilometers of surrounding Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka, but says that Russian resources claims that Russian forces have advanced further “are likely overstated.”

“Russian forces have captured 4.52 square kilometers of territory from different directions around Avdiivka and that Russian forces are 3.32km away from a Ukrainian ground line of communication along the O0562 highway from the south and 5.25 km from the north of Avdiivka,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its 12 October assessment.

The head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, said it was “too early to discuss a full-scale [Ukrainian] exodus from the city,” despite the Russian advances.

Russian military bloggers acknowledged progress has been slow. “Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are attempting to create a cauldron around Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka, but quickly acknowledged that current advances are slow,” the institute’s assessment said.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces likely lost at least a battalion tactical group’s (BTG’s) worth of armored vehicles around Avdiivka, according to OSINTtechnical, X (Twitter) user. On 12 October Ukrainian forces destroyed 33 Russian armored vehicles and 15 tanks near Avdiivka.

ISW said, citing a Ukrainian reserve officer, that Ukrainian forces have destroyed a minimum of 36 Russian armored vehicles including tanks, armored personnel carriers, and transport vehicles. However ISW claimed that both sides are suffering “significant losses” in operations around Avdiivka.

Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash indicated that Russian forces are carrying out assaults with air support in 10 to 12 directions around the settlement

Other takeaways from the ISW report:

  • The Russian information space is likely exaggerating the degree of Russian successes on the Avdiivka front and will continue to do so despite military failures or a slow pace of advance.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in both sectors of the front on October 12
  • Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes across Ukraine, targeting port infrastructure in southern Ukraine and critical infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast on the night of October 11 to 12.
  • The Russian Presidential Administration continues preparations to manage and falsify the March 2024 presidential elections.
  • Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky advocated for Russian forces to freeze the frontlines in Ukraine in order to replace exhausted mobilized personnel with fresh contract servicemen and launch a renewed offensive effort.
  • Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated on October 12 that the Russian military has recruited more than 357,000 contract, volunteer, and conscripted military personnel since January 1, 2023.
  • Russian authorities continue to persecute religious communities in occupied Ukraine as part of ongoing Russian efforts to destroy the Ukrainian identity.

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