All-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian troops conducted limited raid into Belgorod Oblast and continue to operate in Russia. Russians hunts for Ukraine’s operational airfields; hits one near Kropyvnytskyi. Russian missiles hit Dnipro; a 2-year-old girl killed and 22 injured, including 5 children
Daily overview — Summary report, June 4
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 18.00 pm, June 4, 2023 is in the dropdown menu below:
Military Updates
Ukraine reportedly deploys Belgian weapons to help insurgents in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, Foreign Ministry says – media. The government of Belgium will ask Ukraine to give explanations related to the latest reports that say Kyiv supplies Russian insurgents in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast with Belgian weapons, as per Het Laatste Nieuws. According to a source from the Foreign Ministry of Belgium, weapons were transferred to Ukraine with a clear objective: to support its defense efforts against Russian aggression on its territory and enhance the capabilities of the Ukrainian Army. The supplies were provided under the terms of contracts signed by both parties. The source emphasized that the weapons were never intended to be transferred to isolated factions with internal Russian interests.
According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):
- Over the course of May 2023, Russia launched over 300 Iranian Shahed series one way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs) against Ukraine: its most intense use of this weapon system to date.
- Russia is probably launching so many OWA-UAVs in an attempt to force Ukraine to fire stocks of valuable, advanced air defence missiles.
- Russia is unlikely to have been notably successful: Ukraine has neutralised at least 90% of the incoming OWA-UAVs mostly using its older and cheaper air defence weapons and with electronic jamming. Russia has also likely been attempting to locate and strike Ukrainian forces well behind the front line. However, Russia remains very ineffective at hitting such dynamic targets at range because of its poor targeting processes.
Losses of the Russian army
Humanitarian
Russian missiles hit Dnipro, people get stuck under rubble. The Russian army launched missiles against the city of Dnipro (southeastern Ukraine), the head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast State Administration, Serhii Lysak, reported. One of the Russian missiles hit between two two-story residential buildings on the outskirts of Dnipro, according to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. People are stuck under the rubble of a damaged building. The rescue operation is underway.
Support
Germany to supply Ukraine with 66 Fuchs armored personnel carriers. The German government has signed an agreement with the Flensburger Fahrzeugbau GmbH company on 66 armored personnel carriers, which will be sent to Ukraine, NTV reported. According to the DPA news outlet, Berlin considered buying Fuchs APCs from the Rheinmetall defense concern but decided to purchase the FFG carriers due to their lower price. Currently, the vehicles are being equipped in Flensburg and later they will be transferred to Ukraine to protect soldiers from Russian strikes.
New Developments
Blasts rock occupied Melitopol, mayor says. On 4 June, loud explosions were reported in occupied Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, said Mayor Ivan Fedorov.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive will be “impressive,” former CIA director says. On 4 June, a former CIA director, Gen David Petraeus, said a counteroffensive would be “very impressive” and would end with a victory of Ukraine. According to Petraeus, the Ukrainian Army would succeed on the battlefield due to its determination to liberate all the occupied territories from Russian troops and its effective strategy which would include joint work of infantry and air defense and electronic warfare units, as per The Guardian.
Arrests for wearing blue and yellow highlight Russian paranoia over alleged support for Ukraine. Arrests in Russia for wearing blue and yellow raise questions about interpreting wartime legislation and highlight the paranoia within the Russian officialdom, according to the British Defense Ministry’s latest intelligence update.
Ukraine downs 4 of 6 cruise missiles, 3 of 5 Shahed drones in Russia’s pre-dawn attack (updated). In the early hours of 4 June, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with six cruise missiles and five Shahed kamikaze drones. Ukrainian air defenses downed four missiles and three drones, according to the Air Force Command.
Ukraine’s Armed Forces attack occupied Berdiansk. At least eight powerful explosions have rocked occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, southeastern Ukraine, which is confirmed by Berdiansk City Military Administration (in exile) and Russian state-run news media, such as TASS and RIA Novosti. Berdiansk Siohodni, a local Telegram channel, posted several videos and photos from Berdiansk showing multiple explosions in different parts of the town, including the areas near the airport and the Azov Sea port, where Russian warships are stationed.
Hungarian gov’t re-releases controversial video now marking Crimea as part of Ukraine. The Hungarian government corrected the map of Ukraine in its video, which previously marked Crimea as part of Russia, Yevropeiska Pravda reported. The updated video shows the territory of Crimea as part of Ukraine.
Assessment
- On the war.
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of June 3, 2022:
Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 4 and are reportedly continuing to operate in a Russian border settlement. Geolocated footage published on June 4 shows LSR and RDK personnel advancing towards Novaya Tavolzhanka (3.5km from the Ukrainian border).[1] Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov confirmed that there was fighting within Novaya Tavolzhanka, although the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Western Military District and the Russian Border Guard Service struck a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group near the settlement, forcing them to withdraw.[2] Russian milbloggers claimed that a sabotage and reconnaissance group of 20 personnel entered Novaya Tavolzhanka without armored vehicles.[3] Wall Street Journal Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Yarsoslav Trofimov reported that the pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters remain in Novaya Tavolzhanka as of 1700 (Moscow Standard Time).[4]
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov responded to a RDK and LSR demand to negotiate for the exchange of captured Russian prisoners of war (POWs). The LSR and RDK addressed a video to Gladkov purporting to show RDK and LSR fighters with two Russian POWs whom they said they captured near Novaya Tavolzhanka. The RDK and LSR demanded that Gladkov arrive at the temple in Novaya Tavolzhanka by 1700 (Moscow Standard Time) to negotiate for the release of the POWs.[5] Gladkov stated that he was ready to meet with the RDK and LSR fighters at the Shebekino checkpoint to negotiate the exchange of the POWs.[6] Gladkov later reportedly refused to meet with the RDK and LSR fighters because he believed that the Russian POWs were already dead.[7] The RDK and LSR released a subsequent video showing themselves with 12 Russian POWs, criticizing Gladkov for lacking courage, and stating that they would send the POWs to Ukraine.[8]
The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids. The contradictory reporting from official Russian sources about the situation in Belgorod Oblast and Gladkov’s apparent personal decision to respond to the RDK and LSR suggests that the MoD and Gladkov are not coordinating their responses to the raids. ISW has previously reported that Russian officials have disproportionately responded to the limited raids into Russian territory in an effort to assuage growing Russian anxiety about the war in Ukraine while also supporting ongoing information operations that aim to present the war as existential to Russia.[9] Russian responses have primarily centered on informational effects, and there is no indication that the Russian leadership has set a wider policy for preventing further limited raids into Russian border oblasts. It is also not clear if Russian authorities are orchestrating the evacuation response to this activity. An RDK fighter claimed on June 4 that Belgorod Oblast authorities have not organized the announced evacuation measures in the Shebekino area and that Russian citizens have largely fled of their own accord, leaving many settlements in a semi-abandoned state.[10] Gladkov claimed that 4,000 residents from the area are currently staying at temporary accommodation centers in connection with evacuation efforts, however.[11] Ukrainian Advisor to the Internal Affairs Minister Anton Herashchenko stated on June 4 that the RDK and LSR activity has prompted Russian leaders to divert significant forces to stop border incursions, although ISW has not observed confirmation that Russian forces have done so.
The limited raids and border shelling in Belgorod Oblast are increasingly becoming the current focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to use the situation in Belgorod Oblast to criticize the MoD on June 3 and 4, specifically calling out the lack of response from Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Colonel General Alexander Lapin, and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valeriy Gerasimov.[12] Prigozhin offered to negotiate the release of POWs held by the RDK and LSR if Russian authorities failed to do so, and responded to criticism of his offer by sarcastically stating that Russia has a problem with people who have “balls.”[13] Other ultranationalist milbloggers responded to the latest raid by criticizing Gladkov for being willing to negotiate with the RDK and LSR, and Russian authorities for failing to consistently inform the public about the situation in Belgorod Oblast.[14] A prominent milblogger used the raid in Belgorod Oblast to criticize the MoD for not funding Belgorod territorial defense volunteer formations and for not considering the volunteers as actual combatants.[15] Former Russian officer and ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin argued that the Kremlin cannot do anything about the situation in Belgorod Oblast without engaging in a costly diversion of resources that would likely end in an attritional operation reminiscent of Bakhmut.[16]
Russian forces again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles on June 4, marking the fourth consecutive day of strikes across Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched five Shahed-136/131 drones from Bryansk Oblast and six Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from six strategic Tu-95 bombers in the Caspian Sea in the early morning of June 4.[17] Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down three Shahed drones and four cruise missiles. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that two Russian missiles struck an active Ukrainian airfield near Kropyvnytskyi in Kirovohrad Oblast.[18] Ihnat added that two Shahed drones struck unspecified infrastructure in Sumy Oblast.[19] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all drones and missiles that targeted Kyiv.[20]
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on June 4 that Ukrainian forces may have regained positions in southwestern Bakhmut, supporting repeated Ukrainian reports that the Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city. Prigozhin claimed that some unspecified reports suggest that Ukrainian forces established observation posts in the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.[21] Prigozhin recommended that the Russian forces in Bakhmut take action if these reports are true. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar and other Ukrainian officials have continuously reported that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut since May 20, when Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces seized the entirety of the city.[22]
Key Takeaways
- Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 4 and are reportedly continuing to operate in a Russian border settlement.
- Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov responded to a RDK and LSR demand to negotiate for the exchange of captured Russian prisoners of war (POWs).
- The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids.
- The limited raids and border shelling in Belgorod Oblast are increasingly becoming the current focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership.
- Russian forces again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles on June 4 making it the fourth consecutive day of strikes across Ukraine.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on June 4 that Ukrainian forces may have regained positions in southwestern Bakhmut, supporting repeated Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
- Ukrainian and Russian forces both claimed to have made limited territorial gains on the Kupiansk-Svatove line.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and Marinka.
- Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western Donetsk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) submitted a draft government decree that will no longer require an individual’s presence at an enlistment office for military registration.
- Russian officials continue to use rest and rehabilitation schemes to deport Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Russia.
