Leaked US military documents obtained by The Washington Post reveal that Russia can fund the war in Ukraine for at least another year, despite heavy and increasing sanctions. The assessment, which appears to date from early March, indicates that some of Russia’s economic elites, while not agreeing with the country’s course in Ukraine, are unlikely to withdraw support for President Putin.
The documents reveal that Russia is relying on increased corporate taxes, its sovereign wealth fund, increased imports and business adaptability to mitigate economic pressures. However, the leaked assessment does not explore other factors that could affect Russia’s ability to fight, such as ammunition expenditure and the need to recruit or conscript new soldiers.
The leaked documents were part of a trove shared in a Discord chatroom and obtained by The Washington Post. Massachusetts Air National Guard technician Jack Teixeira was charged with taking and transmitting the classified papers. The documents do not address the impact of newly imposed sanctions or the long-term pain of oil price ceilings in Europe. Russian oil revenue has plummeted.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov had drafted a letter in early March to seek backing for contingency plans to avoid a “potentially embarrassing collapse” of Russian state-controlled entities such as the International Investment Bank, the International Bank for Economic Cooperation and the Eurasian Investment Bank, because of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies. However, some experts expressed surprise that Siluanov would be so worried about an institution with a relatively small market cap.
The documents reveal profound concerns about the war’s trajectory and Ukraine’s capacity to wage a successful offensive against Russian forces.
