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Defensive activities in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast show “genuine (but false) belief” that Ukraine may invade – British intel

According to the December 7 intelligence update by the British Defense Ministry, Russia’s activities on constructing a defensive line and establishing “self-defense units” in its Belgorod Oblast probably illustrate “some Russia decision-makers’ genuine (but false) belief that there is a credible threat of invasion by Ukrainian forces.

Military company Wagner continues to form military structures in Belgorod, Kursk regions, Russia

The ministry tweeted:

  • “Russia has recently started extending defensive positions along its international border with Ukraine, and deep inside its Belgorod region. On 6 December 2022, the governor of Belgorod announced he was establishing local ‘self-defence units’. Trench digging has been reported in Belgorod since at least April 2022, but the new constructions are probably more elaborate systems, designed to rebuff mechanised assault.”
  • “There is a realistic possibility that the Russian authorities are promoting defensive preparations within internationally recognised Russian territory to burnish patriotic feeling. However, it probably illustrates some Russia decision-makers’ genuine (but false) belief that there is a credible threat of invasion by Ukrainian forces.”
  • “Paucity in strategic assessment is one of the critical weaknesses in the central Russian government architecture: as highlighted by Russia’s original decision to invade Ukraine. Impartial official analysis is almost certainly frequently undermined by a tendency toward group-think and politically expedient conclusions.”

Wagner PMC now builds anti-tank fortifications in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast

Explosions at ammunition warehouse in Russia’s Belgorod reported


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