The world has entered a phase of serious turbulence - a hybrid war in Ukraine, a humanitarian disaster in Syria, centrifugal movements within the European Union, the election of Donald Trump as US president, the upcoming parliamentary elections in Germany, the Netherlands, and the French presidential elections where Eurosceptics can come to power.
The Ukrainian outlet Apostrof tried to get answers to questions how this all may affect Ukraine and what can happen in case the negative scenarios are implemented in a conversation with Stefan Meister, Head of the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, on 19 December.
The expert spoke about his vision of solving the conflict in the Donbas, the possible reduction of support from the United States, the influence of Russian propaganda in Germany, the probability of an escalation of the situation in the Baltic States, NATO's readiness to Russian provocations and growing anti-European sentiment in the continent.
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In 2016 Europe was faced with one of the biggest challenges in its newest history – a great number of refugees. As we know they came mostly from Syria. There is a violent war between Bashar Al-Assad troops, rebels, and ISIS. The Russians are taking an active role in this conflict. Is it possible that Putin, by creating chaos and humanitarian crisis in Syria, is making the refugees flee from the country to Europe, thus making a turmoil on the continent and trying to press upon EU’s countries leaders to drop the sanctions, to recognize the Crimea as Russian territory and Ukraine as its sphere of influence? I don't think that was an initial goal of his intervention, it was much more about to prevent Assad from failing. But he might have accepted this collateral damage and Moscow is paying very little for humanitarian aid and does not support refugees at all. It creates the biggest damage on civil victims with Assad but gives the lowest support for the people. Francois Fillon who has won the conservative party nomination and Marine Le Pen are the most likely future President of France. What can one expect regarding this country’s behavior after electing one of them concerning the prospects of the EU existence, relations with Moscow and Ukraine? Both will try to improve relations with Moscow and Ukraine is much less a priority, but Fillon will stand more for a continuity and Le Pen for a break with the past, the EU. For Fillon, the relations with Germany will be very important and as long as Germany stands for sanctions and tough approach towards Russia and Moscow does not offer any compromise, I don't think his position will fundamentally change. In an interview to Welt am Sonntag Germany’s President Joachim Gauck said that it’s a high time to take a pause in the euro-integration process. What does it mean? What implications will be for Ukraine if such sentiments would prevail in Brussels’ policy? That’s nothing new, but mainstream in the EU. The EU needs to consolidate and adapt to its current situation, reform and focus on its domestic reforms. That means less options for any further enlargement, less resources for the neighborhood policy but it might also mean after the process of consolidation there is a stronger EU which will more support Ukraine. Russia is building its Armed Forces up around Ukraine and reinforcing its military presence in Belarus. Is the direct military invasion still possible? Under what circumstances Putin would dare to make such a step? It is always possible, Putin will never give up both countries and is willing to pay any price to hold them under control. A lot of depends on the reforms and progress in Ukraine - the higher they are, the more likely it is that he would provoke a further escalation of the situation. But I don't believe in a large invasion, it's too costly and risky and can provoke more serious reactions from the West. I think this military buildup is also about to improve his bargaining position for a deal on Ukraine and Russia's "sphere of influence." How would you evaluate the quality of Germany-Ukraine relations? Is Kyiv doing enough to enlist the support of Europe’s strongest nation? Can we expect some changes regarding the parliamentary elections in 2017? Ukraine is a priority for Germany policy, there is a lot of investment in many areas in Ukraine, Germany has taken the lead of resolving all the conflicts in the EU. Despite the growing contacts, there is a growing Ukraine fatigue also in Germany because of the slowing down of the reform process, particularly in fighting corruption. There are still a lot or misunderstandings between both countries and a lack of more comprehensive ties in social, cultural, political, and economic spheres. If Merkel stays, there will be continuity, if she will leave there might be some changes, but I don't expect fundamental changes. Rumor has it that 2017 will be full of surprises and unexpected decisions. In your opinion, what can we expect for Ukraine in the next year related to the Donbas crisis, relations with EU? We don't know, it depends on elections in Europe, the new US president, and the ability of Ukraine's elites to do their homework and get the support of their society. This muddling through might go on, but if parts of the current situation and relations change, the whole situation in and around Ukraine might change.
Anatolii Shara is a Ukrainian freelance journalist.
