Col. Mashovets: An analysis of events

Col. Mashovets: An analysis of events

The latest analysis from [Ukrainian] Lieutenant Colonel Konstantin Mashovets:

[Balzac’s] shagreen, it shrinks…

1. Of course Girkin can tell as many tales as he wishes of hordes of Serbian “Chetniks” burning with desire to die under Ukrainian forces’ heavy machine gun and mortar fire. However, this is unlikely to change the fact that his operational rear is simply falling to pieces (this “paper commander” has been warned that his rear units will be on fire if he decides “to fight till death,” and this is what is actually happening). After all, Girkin is actually not capable of stopping the Ukrainian forces advancing around Horlivka to Yenakiieve and cutting off “crazy Lyosha’s” (Oleksii Mozgovyi’s brigade) route to Luhansk behind his back–Girkin simply does not have the necessary forces. If he wasn’t squabbling with Vostok [battalion] and wasn’t throwing it all into a grueling battle of encounter, he could have maintained operational communication with Luganda [a neologism combining the words “Luhansk” and “Uganda,” referring to Luhansk People’s Republic]. But now he will have to work his way South, through the sparsely populated steppes, where they are expecting [him] already…

2. Apparently, my words yesterday about starting positions and areas not [being used] for a “reverse attack” anymore, but for a simple breakthrough “for the sake of saving the idea,” have turned out to be largely prophetic. The Alchevsk-Stakhanov-Bryanka triangle is gradually turning into a starting area for the terrorist breakthrough out of the Donetsk sack (first and foremost the remainder of Vostok and of [Oleksii] Mozgovyi’s “Fedayeens,” and then his crony, “the Honorable” Bezler). Yesterday, “comrade Mozgovyi” broke in here, tired and worn out, having lost the majority of his “armored troops” during the breakthrough from the Lysychansk loop through Pervomaisk (he has no more than three armored vehicles left). This maneuvre did not come easy to him; the losses of his consolidated (or rather rag-tag) brigade cannot even be defined as “significant,” but rather “fatal.”

3. Just as I anticipated, it was the flanks that became the overall “misfortune” for the terrorists. The classical operation by Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka-Dzerzhynsk-Kostyantynivka is a convincing illustration of that. The “terrible and frightening“ Bezler was simply skirted around the flanks and forced to quickly break away from the leading units of an advancing Ukrainian team. Somewhat stunned, Bes [Bezler’s call sign] was forced to swiftly retreat to his lair, [the city of] Horlivka, which the Ukrainian troops managed to hem in from three sides as a result of such successful MANEUVERING actions. Whereas only three days ago, he tried “to cut off” the Artemivsk formation of Ukrainian forces which was aiming at Popasna, intending to derail all activities on “educating comrade Mozgovyi…”

4. This morning, the terrorists in Luhansk made a titanic attempt to stop the collapse of the centralized and organized resistance in the Luhansk defense node. [They carried out] several chaotic fire strikes (primarily in the south-eastern part and in the strip from Rozkishne to Ternove, in the general direction of Chervonopartyzansk), [tried to]  shrink the expansions of the territory around the airport controlled by Ukrainian forces, and [made] a few strange and unfocused attacking convulsions. [All of these actions] did not change the general operational situation–Ukrainian forces in this sector continued to squeeze the terrorists’ defense from three sides. They [terrorists] really have only one corridor left, towards Izvaryne, through Krasnodon and Sukhodillya, and even [this corridor is] at times quite noticeably fired at by Ukrainian artillery and aviation. By the way, this morning’s wails about the “armored armada that broke through Krasnodon” were precisely aimed at “misleading and winning some time” to more or less adequately prepare for resistance to counterattacks on the Ukrainian military formation, which was entrenched in the southeastern outskirts of Luhansk and restricted the terrorists’ maneuvers. I think that they will continue to fuss around in this area for another two or three days, then the savviest of them will make a run for the border through Krasnodon, while the rest will be exterminated…

5. Today in the South, one of the commanders of the tactical team almost undermined “the entire operational plan” of the ATO command. In a complete surprise to the separatists and their own commanders in the area of Marynivka and Saurivka, where terrorists bit into the ground and continue to hold the border access points with artillery strikes from an adjacent site (the last “way out” for Girkin & Co.), a consolidated tactical group from a regiment of Ukrainian troops, [that was] transporting injured soldiers, broke through combat formations of illegal armed groups at the flank and joined the positions of Ukrainian troops, deployed to the north-west of Amvrosiivka. In general, in the Sverdlovsk–Dmytrivka–Dolzhansky triangle, apparently the terrorists don’t have any chances left ANYMORE. The narrow strip [that leads] to the [Russian] border, which was cleared by Girkin’s incredible efforts a week ago, remains the “only bright spot” for them.

Girkin dreams of being like General Anton Denikin. I don’t know how much he actually resembles Denikin physically, but the most interesting thing is that in his “military practice” Girkin is making the same mistakes that the “Commander-in-Chief of the South of Russia” made during the [Russian] Civil War.

By Lt. Col. Konstantin Mashovets, blogger, Ministry of Defence
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

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    Economist Edward Lucas Attacks Russia's RT and Sputnik for "manufacturing lies" and those working there as "freaks and propagandists"

    Feature by BBC Monitoring on 9 February

    Russian state media have hit back strongly at British journalist Edward Lucas after he criticized them at the recent Munich Security Conference and suggested that journalists working for them should be ostracized. One top TV presenter went as far as to brand Lucas a "village idiot".

    At a panel discussion at the annual Munich Security Conference on 6 February, Lucas, a senior editor at The Economist and author of The New Cold War, accused the Kremlin's international media operations, RT (formerly known as Russia Today) and Sputnik (rebranded successor to the Voice of Russia) of "manufacturing lies".

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    "Journalistic Joe McCarthy"

    Russian state media came back, all guns blazing, with Lucas even getting a whole slot to himself on state channel Rossiya 1's weekly current affairs news roundup Vesti Nedeli.[2]

    Outspoken host Dmitriy Kiselev, who is also director-general of Sputnik's parent company Rossiya Segodnya (which confusingly translates as Russia Today), hurled a whole fistful of epithets at Lucas – "odious British journalist", "hysterical Londoner" and even "village idiot" – while rubbishing his analysis of Russian politics and accusing The Economist of practising censorship.

    RT responded more primly, saying it was "absolutely outraged" by Lucas's "specious attacks", which, it said, were particularly "despicable" as several of its journalists were daily risking their lives to "report on stories nobody else dares to touch".[3]

    Sputnik also had Lucas in its sights, describing him in one article as a "journalistic Joe McCarthy" – a reference to the US senator who instigated a witch-hunt against Communist sympathizers in the 1950s.[4]

    Lucas himself appeared to revel in the backlash, responding to Kiselev in kind.

    "Better than a Pulitzer prize? i get prime-time abuse from vile Kremlin mouthpiece Kiselov," he tweeted.[5]

    He could also take comfort from the support of fellow Twitterati, who suggested he had got under RT's skin.

    US journalist Michael Weiss observed that Lucas had "figured out RT hacks' Achilles heel", while Times columnist Oliver Kamm said he had "badly wounded them".[6][7]

    Writer and Russia watcher Ben Judah also weighed in, saying Lucas had put the wind up RT. "Experts should refuse to appear on RT – or any other? disinformation channel", he added.[8]

    "Misinformation"

    RT and its supporters also entered the fray on Twitter.

    One of its contributors, Robert Bridge, accused Lucas of being "scared to hear another side of the story", while the channel itself suggested his attack on its journalists may have been provoked by recent criticism of The Economist on its show In The Now.[9][10]

    In The Now dismissed as "absurd" a claim by The Economist that Russian state TV "conceals" bad economic news from its viewers. It showed excerpts from top TV bulletins talking about the collapse of the rouble to prove the contrary. It also said that the story of the rouble's woes and the looming recession had been well covered in Russian newspapers. To suggest otherwise, it said, was to promote "misinformation".[11]

    It called its analysis of The Economist's coverage a "tutorial on how to write a propaganda article".

    But RT's criticism of The Economist was itself guilty of omission and distortion.

    For example, it made no mention of the fact that on the day in mid December when the rouble tumbled by some 10 per cent, Rossiya 1 main news had ignored this story altogether.

    Also, it illustrated its claim about the Russian press's economic coverage with screenshots not from leading newspapers but from news agencies and websites, one of them a little known business portal from the Volga republic of Tatarstan.

    The panel discussion at the Munich conference, which also featured NATO commander and US general Philip Breedlove and Norwegian Defence Minister Ine Eriksen Soreide, looked more broadly at the issue of hybrid warfare and the role played in it by different media organizations.

    According to a report by Judy Dempsey on the Carnegie Europe website, the participants said that one of the reasons why RT and its ilk have been able to make such an impact is the cutbacks at top Western international media, such as the BBC World Service and the Voice of America.[12]

    [1] http://rt.com/op-edge/230315-rt-responds-lucas-munich/

    [2] http://vesti7.ru/news?id=45745

    [3] See note 1

    [4] http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20150208/1017973545.html

    [5] https://twitter.com/edwardlucas/status/564531479263600642

    [6] https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/564468359048486912

    [7] https://twitter.com/OliverKamm/status/564408994853572609

    [8] https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/564541740863193091

    [9] https://twitter.com/Robert_Bridge/status/564665181549391873

    [10] https://twitter.com/INTHENOWRT/status/564758039371472896

    [11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2H5X3WYm_3U

    [12] http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=58998

    Source: BBC Monitoring research 9 Feb 15

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